ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Over western Cuba. Ruh roh raggy.

Huh??? Western?

Lol whoops. Went 'east, I thought you said weast' there for a moment. Eastern cuba, but more west in the track.

[SFLcane]

[stormreader]

so this mean could see cone over most south fl by sat that make people notice alot and get news here hype system that good and bad

Don't want to call it hype. No matter what, you're very likely to have a major hurricane uncomfortably close to the peninsula. Even if the current GFS verifies it's gonna give you guys a scare, and it could be much worse. Got to expect saturation coverage in Fl by weekend.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This is only one run for tonight, but after yesterday's evening GFS run I posted I felt it would shift back west and ride up the west coast of FLA hope this does not come to pass.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty much identical to yesterday's 0Z run.

[stormreader]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092900/gfs_ir_watl_21.png

Look how dangerous that is for the penninsula if that plays out. I think it may come across Cuba a little west of there too! Looking for it to emerge somewhere near Key West.

[Hurricaneman]

Pretty much identical to yesterday's 0Z run.

Its about 15 miles west of that run and slightly faster

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Ntxw]

Just a quick reminder if you quote someone and there is an image please take a quick few seconds to remove the [img] tags. We really don't need to see the same image 3 times on the same page. It can particularly be draining if it's an animated GIF.

Thanks.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Damn,

I have watching tracking this thing since it left Africa. But I must admit I really did not feel I would need to deal with this storm, starting to really wonder now.

[floridasun78]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092900/gfs_ir_watl_21.png

that big hurr going to haiti and east cuba and Domingo hope best for them

[stormreader]

This is only one run for tonight, but after yesterday's evening GFS run I posted I felt it would shift back west and ride up the west coast of FLA hope this does not come to pass.

That's what I'm thinking. Probably 60 % chance of the N move, but up the West Coast of Fl. 40% chance moves out into Central GOM ( no weakness at all) just enhanced ridging.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just to put this run of the GFS in perspective...if it waits just six hours longer to make the turn North or the turn is more gradual then Florida is in the crosshairs. Anybody saying Florida is or is not in the clear at this point in time is kidding themselves. When Matthew is north of Florida then we can say we are in the clear. We are looking at a modeled forecast point that is 5 days plus away and could vary left or right or up or down by 150 or more miles. The immediate concern is Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Looks like our men and women in uniform at Gitmo may get smacked pretty good.

[Hurricaneman]

another thing is are the models eroding the ridge more than it probably be eroded but the erosion is later causing a later recurve right into central\western Cuba right into Florida like a lot of the Euro ensembles are showing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TimeZone]

Those Mountains over E Cuba are going to rip this thing apart.

[p1nheadlarry]

Just to put this run of the GFS in perspective...if it waits just six hours longer to make the turn North or the turn is more gradual then Florida is in the crosshairs. Anyway saying Florida is or is not in the clear at this point in time is kidding themselves. When Matthew is north of Florida then we can say we are in the clear. We are looking at a modeled forecast point that is 5 days plus away and could vary left or right or up or down by 150 or more miles. The immediate concern is Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Looks like our men and women in uniform at Gitmo may get smacked pretty good.

Florida is not out of the picture, lots of the US aren't out of the way. All we know is that Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti are in the way. And when I say Florida, I mean the entire coast of it, gulf included.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If they do slow it down and weaken it a bit that would be a blessing.

[Hurricaneman]

Those Mountains over E Cuba are going to rip this thing apart.

Its going to be about timing of the erosion of the ridge, if it erodes faster Hispaniola will get blasted but if it erodes later it goes over a flatter part of Cuba and retains a good bit of its strength and that could be bad for Florida

[Steve]

bombing hurricane photo

That's all anyone proclaiming Florida was out of the woods needs to see. It's not impossible that waves and milky skies are what they get, but I think a little more even based off that presentation and even if it pulled up north.

[Steve]

so this mean could see cone over most south fl by sat that make people notice alot and get news here hype system that good and bad

Don't want to call it hype. No matter what, you're very likely to have a major hurricane uncomfortably close to the peninsula. Even if the current GFS verifies it's gonna give you guys a scare, and it could be much worse. Got to expect saturation coverage in Fl by weekend.

Haha. I could have just liked your post, but i clicked reply before i read it. Looking forward to the full run and the next 2 or 3 from the GFS.

[wxmann_91]

Just to put this run of the GFS in perspective...if it waits just six hours longer to make the turn North or the turn is more gradual then Florida is in the crosshairs. Anybody saying Florida is or is not in the clear at this point in time is kidding themselves. When Matthew is north of Florida then we can say we are in the clear. We are looking at a modeled forecast point that is 5 days plus away and could vary left or right or up or down by 150 or more miles. The immediate concern is Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Looks like our men and women in uniform at Gitmo may get smacked pretty good.

Not saying that FL shouldn't be watching this, but the delta in the GFS is quite a bit more than six hours. That ULL that digs down in the eastern Gulf will pick just about anything up. The uncertainty lies not only in the timing/how far SW this goes before being picked up, but also the evolution of that ULL, which differs a lot between the GFS and Euro.