ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CrazyC83]

I am doing a State of the Tropics weekly analysis, and included a forecast for Matthew. I have it a bit west of the NHC forecast and significantly stronger (115 kt at days 4 and 5, leaving it alone there because of land uncertainty and other structural issues).

[centuryv58]

12Z JMA animation:

JB used the JMA as one of his supports earlier today. Don't know enough about it to say how accurate it is though.

JMA is just about as useful as the CMC and NOGAPS. Maybe better than NAM, or the BAM suite, or LBAR. Not sure why JB is using the JMA.

He uses it a lot. Need to see some concrete data on it and not just speculation though.

[PTrackerLA]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

My thought was that the more westerly EC ensembles would all be with a weaker storm. However, that didn't turn out to be the case. I'm not sure why so many members are west of Florida.

According to what I'm seeing on Weatherbell I counted at least 21 members (probably a few more than that) make it into the gulf as a SUB 955mb hurricane (914mb being the strongest.) It's truly bizarre to me to see such intense solutions from nearly all the Euro ensemble members, even the ones in the Atlantic. Let's hope it's totally off.

[Bocadude85]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

My thought was that the more westerly EC ensembles would all be with a weaker storm. However, that didn't turn out to be the case. I'm not sure why so many members are west of Florida.

According to what I'm seeing on Weatherbell I counted at least 21 members (probably a few more than that) make it into the gulf as a SUB 955mb hurricane (914mb being the strongest.) It's truly bizarre to me to see such intense solutions from nearly all the Euro ensemble members, even the ones in the Atlantic. Let's hope it's totally off.

How often are the ensembles totally wrong?

[Steve]

12Z JMA animation:

JB used the JMA as one of his supports earlier today. Don't know enough about it to say how accurate it is though.

JMA is just about as useful as the CMC and NOGAPS. Maybe better than NAM, or the BAM suite, or LBAR. Not sure why JB is using the JMA.

I straight up disagree with you. JMA isn't that low rung. It can be very good with upper air patterns on the continent. Also the CMC remains to be seen. I'm interested to see how it did post season with the upgrades.

[AutoPenalti]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

Agree with this very much.

But didn't the Euro forecast it to remain west if it was stronger?

[HurricaneEric]

Don't know if this matters at all, but Phil Ferro (chief met for WSVN in Miami) cautioned that the sharp north turn depicted by models typically isn't natural, implying this might be more of a gradual northerly turn.

[Hurrilurker]

Don't know if this matters at all, but Phil Ferro (chief met for WSVN in Miami) cautioned that the sharp north turn depicted by models typically isn't natural, implying this might be more of a gradual northerly turn.

I've been skeptical of that all along, it's very rare to see a storm take that extreme of a turn (almost 90° between a few points). I can't ever recall seeing such a thing actually.

[SapphireSea]

The sharp 90 degree turn won't truely be a stop and turn, but it will also represent a major slowdown in movement as it turns. This usually means it will go north and possibly out to sea. Slow speed will be the ECs friend this time of the year as the pattern is very progressive.

[GeneratorPower]

Don't know if this matters at all, but Phil Ferro (chief met for WSVN in Miami) cautioned that the sharp north turn depicted by models typically isn't natural, implying this might be more of a gradual northerly turn.

I've been skeptical of that all along, it's very rare to see a storm take that extreme of a turn (almost 90° between a few points). I can't ever recall seeing such a thing actually.

From the heart of the Caribbean no less. Definitely not a frequent occurrence.

[psyclone]

Both Hermine and Gaston made sharp turns this year. It's not that rare.

[AutoPenalti]

Both Hermine and Gaston made sharp turns this year. It's not that rare.

Not in the carribean though..

[GeneratorPower]

Both Hermine and Gaston made sharp turns this year. It's not that rare.

I've seen it happen with storms being ejected ahead of a strong cold front. But not with relatively weak or distant ridges and troughs such as with this system. Looking at the ECMWF and GFS, I'm not seeing strong nearby features ejecting Matthew. So it's unusual.

My feeling is there could be more stalling and/or slow movement and more gradual turns than currently forecast. Which is why I'm guessing, stress guessing, a Yucatán Channel path.

[psyclone]

Both Hermine and Gaston made sharp turns this year. It's not that rare.

Not in the carribean though..

That doesn't matter. If the storm encounters something to change its course it's gonna turn. The turn in the official forecast isn't nearly as sharp as either Hermine or Gaston...it's much less abrupt. It seems reasonable to me.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS 0z initialized http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=181

[SFLcane]

GFS 00z SW dive at 30hrs

[Alyono]

very slight south shift at 36 hours. Starting to see that the 12Z run was an outlier to the east

[floridadaze8181]

If this storm pans out it will indeed be a rare occurrence. All storms have similar patterns but if this one makes a stall and a sharp decisive turn to the north in middle of the Caribbean as a major you'd have to go all the way back to Hazel in early-mid October 1954. It's indeed a rare climatic set-up for Matthew.

[floridasun78]

very slight south shift at 36 hours. Starting to see that the 12Z run was an outlier to the east

what do sift to south do to track?

[SFLcane]

Heading west maybe wsw at 60hrs