ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

[SFLcane]

Why are folks trying to compare this to the situation we had with Hermine? The 500mb pattern featured stronger and more persistent ridging which is more typical of that time of year. We are now in the final days of September and heading into October which would favor a track the GFS has been showing for days and runs now. It still wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on things if you live along the immediate East Coast of Florida like I do but I sense the threat is decreasing.

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

[TheStormExpert]

Why are folks trying to compare this to the situation we had with Hermine? The 500mb pattern featured stronger and more persistent ridging which is more typical of that time of year. We are now in the final days of September and heading into October which would favor a track the GFS has been showing for days and runs now. It still wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on things if you live along the immediate East Coast of Florida like I do but I sense the threat is decreasing.

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

The NHC is already shifting their track East some 4-5 days out.

[jason1912]

Imo, Florida's east coast will get some impact but not a direct hit *as of now*

[TheStormExpert]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

[wxman57]

I plotted all the ECMWF ensemble members then removed the ones that didn't take it into the Gulf (25). Note that none of the ensemble members had it tracking north of the Bahamas THEN going across Florida into the Gulf. Most had it not slowing down north of Venezuela and continuing westward then moving through the NW Caribbean. I don't think it'll do that. Checking surface pressures, about half of those taking it into the Gulf were relatively high 995+ mb. Some were in the 940s to 950s.


12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - All Ensemble Members:


12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - Gulf Ensemble Members (24):

[floridasun78]

Why are folks trying to compare this to the situation we had with Hermine? The 500mb pattern featured stronger and more persistent ridging which is more typical of that time of year. We are now in the final days of September and heading into October which would favor a track the GFS has been showing for days and runs now. It still wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on things if you live along the immediate East Coast of Florida like I do but I sense the threat is decreasing.

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

i think s florida need rethink what he say because no one know were trun going happen toooo early call fl is safe

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It was posted a number of pages back, can't recall his name but I have watched several of his videos posted here from someone else.

[tolakram]

Why is it important for people to say someplace is in the clear? I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what possesses people to make declarative statements like that.

[ronjon]

Matthew starts turning a bit north on the GFDL

At the end of the 18z run near 80 west!!!

[northjaxpro]

Imo, Florida's east coast will get some impact but not a direct hit *as of now*

Agreed. Definitely the potential of indirect effects of heavy surf and beach erosion. The other direct factors are squarly dependent on the proximity of the storm to the coast. But, don't forget as the storm moves north, the windfield will expand likely. It will likely have far reaching effects where ever it goes.

[SFLcane]

Nogaps comes westward a bit

[floridasun78]

Why is it important for people to say someplace is in the clear? I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what possesses people to make declarative statements like that.

tolakram i seen this before were people post that area wont be in cone like five day out my feeling everyone need keep eye on it we know now can shift more west or east

[jlauderdal]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

bernie rayno

[robbielyn]

It was posted a number of pages back, can't recall his name but I have watched several of his videos posted here from someone else.

Bernie Rayno

[Christiana]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

This video was posted earlier and I believe this is the one referenced. (I am not real great at the rules and such of posting on forums so hope I am linking this right and it is ok! If not, apologies! )
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/channels/vbraynob

[floridasun78]

Nogaps comes westward a bit

http://i68.tinypic.com/28h3ioz.gif

you see this tooo close fl to call we safte bit more west we be in heart of hurr

[La Sirena]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

Bernie Rayno. He feels much more aligned with the Euro models. I don't want to derail this thread. You can check it out on Twitter under accurayno or I'm sure from Accuweather website.

[TheStormExpert]

Amazing that people keep saying it's looking good for Florida, when all is said and done it may turn out that way. But models have been shifting all over the place for days. Not JB but one of the others from Accu weather has a very strong feeling that this will get much farther west than the models are showing. So much so that he even said it could get west of Jamaica, so with this storm 8 to days days out or more I am sure the models will move again.

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

bernie rayno

What's his track record like?

[TheStormExpert]

Nogaps comes westward a bit

http://i68.tinypic.com/28h3ioz.gif

you see this tooo close fl to call we safte bit more west we be in heart of hurr

It's the NOGAPS of course.