ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

So a question for the Pros: how is this information digested and interpreted by forecasters? (When the Operational Euro looks to be meandering easterly thru the Bahamas, but the ensemble mean tells what seems to be a different story?)

I'm seeing a slight eastward shift in the EC ensembles. The eastward shift is more pronounced when you compare the 00Z runs than when comparing the 12Z runs. I don't like it at all when the various operational runs & ensembles disagree so much. It's like Joaquin last season all over again. We may not be certain whether or not the US East Coast gets hit for another week.

[ColdMiser123]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

So a question for the Pros: how is this information digested and interpreted by forecasters? (When the Operational Euro looks to be meandering easterly thru the Bahamas, but the ensemble mean tells what seems to be a different story?)

The way I would interpret that is the Operational run is on the eastern end of the ensemble envelope of possibilities. Ensemble members are each calibrated with slightly different initial conditions in order to account for the fact that observations have uncertainties and imperfections associated with them. Ensemble means therefore have a lower error rate than operational based forecasts in the medium and longer range.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, don't have much to add to this.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781233430424064000

[ColdMiser123]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

So a question for the Pros: how is this information digested and interpreted by forecasters? (When the Operational Euro looks to be meandering easterly thru the Bahamas, but the ensemble mean tells what seems to be a different story?)

I'm seeing a slight eastward shift in the EC ensembles. The eastward shift is more pronounced when you compare the 00Z runs than when comparing the 12Z runs. I don't like it at all when the various operational runs & ensembles disagree so much. It's like Joaquin last season all over again. We may not be certain whether or not the US East Coast gets hit for another week.

There is definitely an east lean on the mean relative to 0z, but the mean SLP is a tick west. Doesn't mean too much though in the grand scheme of things.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Heh, don't have much to add to this.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781233430424064000

That's horrible. Wow lol

Doesn't help that the models have had a harder time with tropical systems this year too.

[seahawkjd]

I certainly agree with those Canadian ensembles - somewhere between Veracruz, MX and east of Newfoundland. Yep, looks good...

Glad we have you here to make the tough calls wxman .

[SFLcane]

Joe b's track...

[Bocadude85]

Joe b's track...

That's the 0z EURO track basically.

[chris_fit]

18Z GFS is running

18hrs

[RL3AO]

If you are posting during the model run it should be one of the following.

1) posting a graphic (with comment would be nice)
2) making a SUBSTANTIAL comment (more than a couple words)
3) asking a question
4) answering a question

[JaxGator]

Joe b's track...

That's the 0z EURO track basically.

The 0z track was south of Jamaica at the time.

[chris_fit]

36hrs

[tolakram]

990 in 24 hours


977 in 36 hours


A little faster and weaker this run, but not really much change.

[TheStormExpert]

Decent consensus here...

With that kind of consensus I would be breathing a sigh of relief once again in Florida. The Euro is a total mess!

[chris_fit]

48hr

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

66hrs

Maybe slightly faster than the 12z but very similar.

[Siker]

Decent consensus here...

With that kind of consensus I would be breathing a sigh of relief once again in Florida. The Euro is a total mess!

The Euro agrees with the turn northward like the consensus shows. Past Cuba / Haiti, the only models that go out that far are the GFS, its ensembles, the BAM bros (trash) and the Canadian.

[tolakram]

72 hours, 8 run trend. This run SW of the last.

[Kazmit]

The Sandy-esque tracks are a little unnerving.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/ima ... smodel.gif