ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).

[wxmann_91]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.

There's been some semblance of troughiness in the western Atlantic for awhile now (and is the same piece of energy that cuts off over the Ohio Valley this week, producing flooding threats in the Mid-Atlantic). This is probably the most cut-off in the Atlantic it has been depicted by the Euro. Sometimes Euro is a bit too cut off with these though, and we'll have to watch for that. The GFS, in the meanwhile, tends to be too progressive with these types of setups, and it shows that piece of energy zipping off to the east. Completely different progressions at H5.

Given the range of solutions out there, nothing has really changed in that the most probable solution is OTS in the long range. But FL, New England, Nova Scotia, Bermuda still all in play.

[galaxy401]

Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).

So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?

[tolakram]

GEFS 12Z run, 0 - 192

[PTrackerLA]

The 12z GFS ensembles raise and eyebrow for the Mid-Atlantic. More bullish on an impact in that area than the previous runs.

[Stormcenter]

Considering where it's at "right now" nothing is off the table including the Gulf. IMO

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that this is definitely starting to look like a gradual OTS shift. But the US should pay attention just in case. Stranger things have happened

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/781209565043920896

[chaser1]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

And while we're at it, where did that low over Yucatan come from as well?

It's plainly obvious why late October and November W. Caribbean storms might track northward (or even NNE). Seeing the pattern now, I"m scratching my head trying to make sense of how anomalously increased 500mb heights seem to lead to a general model consensus of an 120-144 hour exit from near E. Cuba and north from there? Even the JMA which hooks Matthew back toward S. Florida seems odd. As much as I don't see the sharp north turn by all the models, I'm not seeing a logical reason that Matthew is then suddenly going to turn back toward the WNW either. In step with the GFS, the EURO now predicts the beginning of a right turn at about 96 hours. At this point its pretty hard to argue against the model consensus and overall consistency of a poleward turn but it still strikes me as odd that the ridging breaks down so abruptly. All i'll say is Kudo's to both the GFS and EURO if this plays out as broadly forecasted for a good number of model runs. On the flip side, should Matthew just continue to move toward the Yucatan channel or some point west of Jamaica following 96 hour model forecast to do otherwise, then there's something really "off" with all of the model integrity.

Then again, maybe the models aren't all crazy - maybe we'll soon see upper 40's along the N. Gulf coast pretty soon

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like initial position on euro was north of Barbados gfs and CMC right over barbados

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/781206001848549376

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, when was the last time Bastardi agreeded with JMA?

[SFLcane]

GFDL track...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Bernie Rayno has a video explaining why he thinks the GFS is wrong and the GOM is still on the table

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).

So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?

I still think a FL hit is on the table. I dont think the GFS is right

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781211264462848000

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, when was the last time Bastardi agreeded with JMA?

Joe Bastardi referencing Isidore from 2002 as the Euro outperforming the GFS. Really?! 14 year old model comparison?!

[OntarioEggplant]

What the hell was that Euro run? That low makes no sense.

[centuryv58]

Looks like it may stall for a while north of the Bahamas around days 8-10. That may be far enough east of the U.S. to keep it offshore until the next upper trof arrives. I wouldn't bet my life on that, yet. We may be dealing with Matthew into November... (a joke).

So this is like a Joaquin scenario possibly?

I still think a FL hit is on the table. I dont think the GFS is right

So does JB. Still a waiting game.

[wxman57]

Any Florida hit might have to wait about 2 weeks (about the time I'm there). Nothing to indicate an initial track to the Peninsula. Maybe if it's blocked near the Bahamas in 8-10 days then gets shoved west. Matthew may rack up more than half the season's ACE points.