ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Stormcenter]

Okay well then that's it, we now have the two major models heading it out to sea. Time to move along, nothing more to see hear.
The models have spoken. Anything new to track? You know I'm just being facetious but come on folks so much can happen that I
wouldn't bet a nickel on any model runs.

[Steve H.]

Wow, that trip in and out of the Caribbean is really weird. I don't think I remember seeing anything like this when a storm enters the Caribbean and is this far south initially.

[wxman57]

Euro 500 mb pattern has a low east of New England that's taking Matthew NNE from near the Bahamas. However, that low is moving off to the east quickly and may leave Matthew stalled for a while north of the Bahamas in 8-9 days. Bigger, deeper trof to follow, though, which may keep Matthew from reaching the East U.S. Coast. Nothing certain that far out.

[tolakram]

Moving slowly north

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro 500 mb pattern has a low east of New England that's taking Matthew NNE from near the Bahamas. However, that low is moving off to the east quickly and may leave Matthew stalled for a while north of the Bahamas in 8-9 days. Bigger, deeper trof to follow, though, which may keep Matthew from reaching the East U.S. Coast. Nothing certain that far out.

Between 192 and 216 it looks like there is a decent slowdown in forward progress. It appears that the ridging is filling in as well. If he puts the brakes on it will take another trough like you are speaking of to eject him to the NE.

[Ivanhater]

Matthew crawling and gets left behind...heights rising in SE

[wxman57]

"Matthew - you will not impact Orlando the week of October 10-14" (these are not the droids you're looking for...). Trying a Jedi mind trick on Matthew.

[JtSmarts]

"Matthew - you will not impact Orlando the week of October 10-14" (these are not the droids you're looking for...). Trying a Jedi mind trick on Matthew.

Be careful your trick might backfire lol. You have a habit of conjuring up storms.

[BobHarlem]

In short, come back this weekend when an actually turn happens to see what the models are showing for next week. Right now it's trending right out to sea past Cuba/Haiti and it's all based on that turn north around this weekend. I suspect it'll get really quiet here once the turn comes.

[sma10]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.

[tolakram]

Just stuck or very slowly NE at the end of the run.

[PTrackerLA]

Hour 240 looks to be heading NE. Not surprised by this track about half of the 00z Ensembles were starting to indicate an OTS solution. Still a LONG ways to go regardless.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_11.png

10 days....just sitting.

[ronyan]

Hour 240 looks to be heading NE. Not surprised by this track about half of the 00z Ensembles were starting to indicate an OTS solution. Still a LONG ways to go regardless.

I don't think it can be called OTS when it's barely moving at the end of the run.

[tolakram]

12Z run

[PTrackerLA]

10 days....just sitting.

Nothing to really take it out (yet) but nothing to push it further to the coast at this frame. Would probably just wait for the next trough.

[PTrackerLA]

Slight OT: What are the chances of a cat 4 hurricane being nearly over the same spot in the Atlantic 1 year to the date of Joaquin of 2015? That's pretty crazy if the Euro verified!

Edit: actually it would be about a week off

[hurricaneCW]

I can guarantee whatever models show now won't be the outcome 7-10 days out. Anyone who thinks they know must be psychic because the pattern will be incredibly complex.

For example the differences between the gfs and Euro in that timeframe is staggering. We won't know much until the weekend.

[Blown Away]

End run makes a decent turn NE... Not stalled between 216 -240... Likely the next trend...

[sma10]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

True, that low in the NE came out of nowhere this run. Obviously, Matthew's movements make sense given that low, but if it turns out to be specious, it's hard to figure what his movement would have been otherwise. I guess we just have to wait until the next run.

On 2nd look, that NE low was apparent in last night's 00Z run - it was just much further North and East off the coast of Mass. Now it's more influential closer towards the Middle Atlantic coast.