ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

The JMA run finally decided to finish and brings Matthew to South Florida in 168 hours as a hurricane. FWIW the JMA is usually pretty conservative in regards to strength.

[wxman57]

Here's the 5-day (21Z Sunday) comparison. Again, 12Z EC in blue, 00Z EC in black, 12Z GFS in red. 12Z EC is taking the center east of Jamaica now.

[tolakram]

Similar 500mb pattern to the previous run.

[ThetaE]

Euro good chuck to the east @144 - will it bend back west like previous runs is the question! 500mb heights show a way out east, for now.

https://s21.postimg.org/io5ogcauv/image.png

I think it will. Past runs of the ECMWF have had the same gap, and the building ridge/HP to the north cuts it off rather quickly. The 12z GFS also has the exit in the same place at the same time, but even with the storm faster on that run- already exiting the Bahamas- it still doesn't go out to sea.

[CrazyC83]

168: Turned NNE...over the Bahamas...it's definitely slower than the GFS but it seems that it is jumping that way?

[tolakram]

Tossing in another low, and interacting, so this run will end very differently it seems.

[DESTRUCTION5]

168...looks like GFS Heading NNE

[SouthFLTropics]

168: Turned NNE...over the Bahamas...it's definitely slower than the GFS but it seems that it is jumping that way?

Slower than the GFS but faster than the 00z. The best thing for the CONUS would be for this thing to fly through the Caribbean, pull up, and get the heck out of here. The longer it hangs in the Caribbean the more likely of a CONUS hit there will be.

[CrazyC83]

168: Turned NNE...over the Bahamas...it's definitely slower than the GFS but it seems that it is jumping that way?

Slower than the GFS but faster than the 00z. The best thing for the CONUS would be for this thing to fly through the Caribbean, pull up, and get the heck out of here. The longer it hangs in the Caribbean the more likely of a CONUS hit there will be.

Unless the trough to the west dissipates I can't see how it misses with that position and setup.

[wxmann_91]

12Z Euro presents another tough situation, verbatim. While you do have the closed low to the north you also have rising heights again in the SE US downstream of the amplifying Rockies/Plains trough. It's going to be a close call. As many have stated you want Matthew to zip through and interact with that closed low as soon as possible before the ridge builds back in.

[ThetaE]

Already can't wait to see the 12z EPS... That random low seems fishy.

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

192: Bermuda ridge starts to rebuild; path northward clear but eastward escape closing.

[wxman57]

And here's the 7-day forecast. Again, 12Z EC in blue, 00Z EC in black, 12Z GFS in red. 12Z EC is a good bit east of the 00Z and still way south of the 12Z GFS.

[Alyono]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

[JPmia]

12Z Euro presents another tough situation, verbatim. While you do have the closed low to the north you also have rising heights again in the SE US downstream of the amplifying Rockies/Plains trough. It's going to be a close call. As many have stated you want Matthew to zip through and interact with that closed low as soon as possible before the ridge builds back in.

Sounds like your scenario would be a Inez, 66' redux.. and btw, 1966 is analog year for this season per the CSU.

[1900hurricane]

All the upper lows peppered around Matthew in the 12Z ECMWF solution will at least allow plenty of places for outflow to be dumped.

[chris_fit]

Wow what a difference a model run makes. Looks like a decent ridge over the CONUS? Dont see how this will swing back west on this run.

[CrazyC83]

where did that low come from south of New England? That wasn't on any previous run

of course, we're talking about a 7-10 day forecast. Subject to large error still.

Gulf chances appear to be decreasing, however

I agree. I can't see this getting west of 85°W unless it hits Central America first. The goalposts now I would place at 70°W and 84°W.

[Nimbus]

Even if the eye went right over Andros island most of the core winds might miss the east coast of Florida. Not sure about ridging building in later though..