ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

72...the SA dip in full force

[WeatherEmperor]

Moving NW at 96hrs. Big big change!


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[tolakram]

[DESTRUCTION5]

96 hr. ...powerful

[TheDreamTraveler]

Seems a bit northeast of the 0z run at 96 hours

[HurrMark]

Moving NW at 96hrs. Big big change!


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It is a fair bit north from the 12Z Tuesday run...slightly east. Let's watch on to see how significant this is.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF maybe trending toward the GFS?

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092812&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=200

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z run of the ECMWF is running very close to the centerline of the NHC forecast track.

[wxmann_91]

ECMWF maybe trending toward the GFS?

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092812&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=200

Big trend towards GFS. Given that Matthew has been generally north of guidance so far, would not be surprised if that continued in subsequent runs (up through 5-6 days, then it's all up for grabs).

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge seems to retreat much like the GFS.

[DESTRUCTION5]

120 moving NW

[wxman57]

I plotted the 12Z GFS (red), the 12Z EC (blue) and the 00Z EC (black) on my workstation. See below. Valid time is 21Z Sunday (4 days from now). The GFS is still way farther north and faster, but the 12Z EC is a fair bit east-northeast of the 00Z EC.

[bg1]

ECMWF maybe trending toward the GFS?

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092812&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=200

If the GFS does end up being more correct, than it gives a bit more weight into what I have been wondering lately.

Maybe the GFS is best for the deep tropics (Erika last year, pre-Hermine) while the Euro is best off the East Coast (Joaquin, post-Hermine).

[wxmann_91]

The ULL/feature east of Matthew is real and will play a big part in the steering for Matthew. Euro continues to trend weaker with the ridge to Matthew's east due to this feature. This makes sense given that Matthew's future outflow will help amplify the ULL to the east.

[HurrMark]

Looks like it is a tad east and a bit faster from 00Z. Its final approach to Jamaica is from the SE, not the S-SSE so it somewhat "corrected" itself...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I plotted the 12Z GFS (red), the 12Z EC (blue) and the 00Z EC (black) on my workstation. See below. Valid time is 21Z Sunday (4 days from now). The GFS is still way farther north and faster, but the 12Z EC is a fair bit east-northeast of the 00Z EC.

http://i66.tinypic.com/se8sqp.jpg

Think that's a big difference on a 4 day forecast ?

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF maybe trending toward the GFS?

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016092812&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=200

Big trend towards GFS. Given that Matthew has been generally north of guidance so far, would not be surprised if that continued in subsequent runs (up through 5-6 days, then it's all up for grabs).

I would care to guess that by tomorrow afternoon all models will be OTS (as far as US impacts). Still plenty of time to change but could end up being 11 years without a major hit on the US if trends continue. I feel really bad for the people impacted in the Caribbean because they will see a really bad storm more than likely.

[chris_fit]

Euro good chuck to the east @144 - will it bend back west like previous runs is the question! 500mb heights show a way out east, for now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

144 Hati back in cross hairs

[HurrMark]

Oooh...that's a shift east from 00Z. Tip of Cuba rather than right over eastern Cuba...moving NNE