ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[RL3AO]

I believe the east shifts for the GFS are just beginning. A few more runs like this trend from the 12z GFS and the system may only threaten Canada or go OTS. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF does at 1:45EST.

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092812&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=200

Why? What are you seeing meteorologically to make you believe the Euro, GFS, and NHC are wrong?

[Weatherboy1]

That UKMET shift is pretty significant ... about two degrees of longitude further west even as the GFS is looking further east. Just goes to show this forecast is a tricky one!

[SeGaBob]

East of Bermuda is still on the table.

[OntarioEggplant]

I believe the east shifts for the GFS are just beginning. A few more runs like this trend from the 12z GFS and the system may only threaten Canada or go OTS. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF does at 1:45EST.

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092812&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=200

The majority of the "rightward shift" was due to the incorrect initialization playing out downstream in the model. It is not a true shift.

[SouthFLTropics]

The initialization location on the HWRF looks to be almost spot on with the recon fix.

[p1nheadlarry]

What are the implications for North Carolina?

Your guess is as good as anyone's

[PTrackerLA]

Well it's apparent that small differences E or W on where the GFS exits the Caribbean have huge impacts on the downstream trajectory. 12z GFS is a nail biter for the USA but ultimately stays offshore.

[HurrMark]

204 hrs NNE bend with trough incoming from midwest, I think this will be a near miss for the EC

Looking that way...odd because the ambient flow looks like it would take this due north, esp with the trough approaching.

[TheStormExpert]

the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what

It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness

I was just thinking that same exact thing! Blows a phanto TC east of it again

[Hamanard]

East of Bermuda is still on the table.

And so is Bulloch county

[ronjon]

12z CMC looks like Hazel part 2 - up through Andros island toward a carolina hit.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016092812&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Bocadude85]

The CMC is actually closer to S.Fla on the 12Z run then the 0Z.. so a westward shift in the near/mid range.

[ronyan]

Why is there a low in the center of the Atlantic on the GFS?

[hurricaneCW]

You people can't live and die by every model run, there's so much uncertainty that saying it'll probably go OTS or some other option is foolish.

[ronyan]

Well it's apparent that small differences E or W on where the GFS exits the Caribbean have huge impacts on the downstream trajectory. 12z GFS is a nail biter for the USA but ultimately stays offshore.

Extremely close to hitting Maine.

[CrazyC83]

Just misses the trough so it basically pulls an Earl (2010) and runs into Atlantic Canada out ahead of the trough.

Timing will be everything...6 to 12 hours slower and it would phase.

[Blown Away]

At this point models generally keeping Matt off the CONUS... Extremely close, but still off the coast... In October, odds are always going to favor E shifts once Matt turns N... Takes perfect scenario to get a CONUS landfall from a system moving from Matt's location...

[HurrMark]

Just misses the trough so it basically pulls an Earl (2010) and runs into Atlantic Canada out ahead of the trough.

Timing will be everything...6 to 12 hours slower and it would phase.

Yeah, I think that it was too quick to phase...

[centuryv58]

Not a run to trust at the moment. More waiting I guess.

[tpr1967]

I think timing will be the key.

I agree a slower Matthew coming out of Caribbean will feel the effects more from a building east coast ridge forecasted by all models after the 5-6 day period. which I thing would mean a greater threat for SE US IMO.