ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Not a TS yet as of a lack of a closed circulation. I think by 11pm EDT we'll have Matthew.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This is looking quite poorly organized, and not at all stacked--any formative LLC is under 25kt southerly shear while the models were more than likely focusing on the MLC.

Not what the NHC is saying

[p1nheadlarry]

This is looking quite poorly organized, and not at all stacked--any formative LLC is under 25kt southerly shear while the models were more than likely focusing on the MLC.

It looks like you're on to something. The LLC looks to be south of the broader turn where the higher winds seem to be according to recon. Maybe the GFS likes that spot?

[Blown Away]

Up to T2.0/2.0 at 1745z... I guess they like 12.4N... Matt on it's way...

[Blown Away]

Visible Loop Before Sunset...

[Blown Away]

First advisory track for Hermine... Didn't miss by much... Interested to see the first track for 97L...

[SeGaBob]

Seems to be becoming better organized each new frame.

[RL3AO]

Needs a big convective blowup tonight and it should be on its way.

[Bones2016]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

[La Sirena]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

You posted about this recently.....what was your record? It was impressive I remember!

Where are you in Florida? I'm here myself.

[davidiowx]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Sorry to hear about your foot, but insinuating Florida is going to get hit is not very smart. There is still A LOT of uncertainties with this storm. Models will flip and flop quite a bit each day. Especially when the storm isn't even developed yet.

[drewschmaltz]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Sorry to hear about your foot, but insinuating Florida is going to get hit is not very smart. There is still A LOT of uncertainties with this storm. Models will flip and flop quite a bit each day. Especially when the storm isn't even developed yet.

Yes I agree far too many uncertainties to feel comfortable predicting the path of the storm based on a swollen foot. I believe somewhere inside the five-day cone is where member swelling forecast belong. The problem is not with the methodology it is certainly fool proof the problem is with the sample size if we had more samples from Florida and that would mean more reports of swollen members then we could feel more certain in a forecast. At least the data points would mitigate some of the liability.

[abajan]

Barbados Met Services Severe Weather Statement #6

Personal Observation: A number of cumulonimbi around. Otherwise, nothing unusual.

[Bones2016]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

You posted about this recently.....what was your record? It was impressive I remember!

Where are you in Florida? I'm here myself.

Ponce inlet

[Ken711]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Don't think so, NC/VA landfall is my guess once it tracks up the Eastern Atlantic coastline.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be treated as such. They are of my opinion and current knowledge and should NOT be used as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[Steve]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Sorry to hear about your foot, but insinuating Florida is going to get hit is not very smart. There is still A LOT of uncertainties with this storm. Models will flip and flop quite a bit each day. Especially when the storm isn't even developed yet.

Yes I agree far too many uncertainties to feel comfortable predicting the path of the storm based on a swollen foot. I believe somewhere inside the five-day cone is where member swelling forecast belong. The problem is not with the methodology it is certainly fool proof the problem is with the sample size if we had more samples from Florida and that would mean more reports of swollen members then we could feel more certain in a forecast. At least the data points would mitigate some of the liability.

I'm thinking I don't any more reports on those. Some cold high cloudtops shopping up on RBTOP but obviously disorganized. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[sunnyday]

Is 5 days before landfall the earliest reliable time to get a valid, accurate prediction of where the storm is likely to strike? What day should we feel we have the real story on Matthew assuming he develops? Thanks for the info...

[wxman57]

http://i68.tinypic.com/2gvlvkw.jpg
First advisory track for Hermine... Didn't miss by much... Interested to see the first track for 97L...

I'll guarantee you that the first track on "Matthew" won't miss by much, as there is good model consensus out to 5 days. However, if the NHC had to make a 7 or 10-day track, well, that's a whole different story.

[msbee]

Barbados Met Services Severe Weather Statement #6

Personal Observation: A number of cumulonimbi around. Otherwise, nothing unusual.

stay safe, Abajan

[robbielyn]

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

You posted about this recently.....what was your record? It was impressive I remember!

Where are you in Florida? I'm here myself.

He said 6 out of 7 times. But 97L's weather can't possibly be affecting florida weather causing your foot to swell the last few days. I think as the barometer was dropping at your house as a storm was nearby approaching then yes but not this early out.