ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxmann_91]

The background low-level flow around 97L is fairly strong. Could delay a surface low from closing off until this hits the islands, or maybe even later.

[abajan]

You guys can listen to one of our radio stations here:
http://tunein.com/radio/Voice-Of-Barbad ... 29-s16653/

(An update from our emergency department is due to be aired shortly.)

listening to the broadcast...if you need supplies please head to the peoples market...plenty of supplies there

Oh yeah ... that annoying ad.

[jlauderdal]

You guys can listen to one of our radio stations here:
http://tunein.com/radio/Voice-Of-Barbad ... 29-s16653/

(An update from our emergency department is due to be aired shortly.)

listening to the broadcast...if you need supplies please head to the peoples market...plenty of supplies there

Oh yeah ... that annoying ad.

haha...they are actually live there telling people to come in and stock up...sounds like barbados is shutting down tonight...stay safe

http://tunein.com/radio/Q-1007-FM-s54347/

[gatorcane]

and to think the GFS at one point showed a hurricane going into the Southern Lesser Antilles....definitely doesn't seem like we will see RI in the Eastern Caribbean the way it is looking at the moment. But it does seem to be gradually organizing...

[SeGaBob]

Yeah, does seem to be organizing a bit now.

[GCANE]

Looks like a flare up now with a lot of small overshooting tops.
Weird, I don't think I have ever since something like that before.
Recon at the moment is heading due north.
Not sure if they are headed to the flare up or going to get more data around the original swirl that was on satellite.

[hipshot]

Looks like a flare up now with a lot of small overshooting tops.
Weird, I don't think I have ever since something like that before.
Recon at the moment is heading due north.
Not sure if they are headed to the flare up or going to get more data around the original swirl that was on satellite.

Yeah, that is kind of weird, they all seemed to pop up at once near the end of the loop.

[Hammy]

This is looking quite poorly organized, and not at all stacked--any formative LLC is under 25kt southerly shear while the models were more than likely focusing on the MLC.

[GCANE]

Looks like a flare up now with a lot of small overshooting tops.
Weird, I don't think I have ever since something like that before.
Recon at the moment is heading due north.
Not sure if they are headed to the flare up or going to get more data around the original swirl that was on satellite.

Yeah, that is kind of weird, they all seemed to pop up at once near the end of the loop.

It's like somebody just flipped a switch.
At this time of day, it's not a sun-angle effect.
Looks like recon is headed that way.

[GCANE]

For lack of any better met terms: a whole bunch of little black dots popping off on IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CourierPR]

This is looking quite poorly organized, and not at all stacked--any formative LLC is under 25kt southerly shear while the models were more than likely focusing on the MLC.

I disagree. I think it is gradually organizing.

[GCANE]

Recon just turned west, they picked up a 31 knot in-the-clear SFMR measurement.

[GCANE]

These are all definitely hot towers.
New cirrus from them is building on top of the old cirrus left this morning from the towers that fired off at DMAX.

[sunnyday]

Do any of you feel this storm will fail to develop or amount to little after all this hubbub?

[ronyan]

Do any of you feel this storm will fail to develop or amount to little after all this hubbub?

Each system needs to be evaluated within the context of its own dynamic environment. If properly considered I take the view that this will yield the most accurate forecast. Development looks highly probable.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yup. The enviroment is way different this year. A wave that looked like 97l would of been a storm/ hurricane by now years ago.

[GCANE]

Four clustered hot towers firing off around 12.3N 53W.

Looks like it may start to crank up in about 6 hrs or so.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss findings of
the reconnaissance aircraft mission.

Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical wave located about 300 miles east of
Barbados does not have a closed surface circulation. The system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions
are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday.
The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on
Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
late Wednesday and Thursday.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If that's true Hermine would of been a cat5. Lots of dry air/ sal has hindered these systems this year and past couple of years. Actually it's a good thing cause sooner or later it will change.

[JaxGator]

Yup. The enviroment is way different this year. A wave that looked like 97l would of been a storm/ hurricane by now years ago.

Not really. Speed is a factor here when it comes to development and it's just slow enough now to develop. Other hurricanes that formed in the MDR in certian years were moving slower. In other years such as this, it's more favorable close to land when storms tend to pop and pop fast.