ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricaneman]

The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

The LLC is about 1degree south of the MLC at 12.8N which indicates some southerly shear

[Frank2]

Yes, true, not sure how far west that extends, but that can be a equalizer if it continues...

[Medtronic15]

The MLC or LLC appears to be at 13.7 53.0 - and appears to be moving WNW. No doubt this will affect the spaghetti computes if it is verified by recon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Agree!

[Hammy]

This is starting to enter high wind shear, the winds -west- of the convection are out of the south so any formative center is under that mass of southerly winds. Once again it's looking like the models have overblown things, and it wouldn't surprise me as with Karl if this either never reaches hurricane intensity or if it does, barely. I expect a major reduction in intensity forecasts once data from the recon mission enters the models.

[TimeZone]

Not looking as good as I was expecting it would today. Starting to wonder if we may have another Hermine on our hands.

[tolakram]

Not sure what you all are looking at, I don't see any strong negative shear yet. Anti-cyclone still appears to be in a favorable position.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot tower fired off at approx 12.5N 52W and is now leaving cirrus remnant.

[La Sirena]

Not sure what you all are looking at, I don't see any strong negative shear yet. Anti-cyclone still appears to be in a favorable position.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-54&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

I thought shear was to be no more than 15 it's at the worst right now?

[La Sirena]

Not looking as good as I was expecting it would today. Starting to wonder if we may have another Hermine on our hands.

It was forecast to get a bit weaker before it picked back up again on the other side of the Windwards I believe.

[floridasun78]

hammy dont like hurr so all system will go shear or don't form we hope hammy right but hammy like shear what i see most hammy post talk about high shear not going form but hammy got right say what hammy mind

[SeGaBob]

This is starting to enter high wind shear, the winds -west- of the convection are out of the south so any formative center is under that mass of southerly winds. Once again it's looking like the models have overblown things, and it wouldn't surprise me as with Karl if this either never reaches hurricane intensity or if it does, barely. I expect a major reduction in intensity forecasts once data from the recon mission enters the models.

Tell us how you really feel.

[Alyono]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

[srva80]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

Whoa!!

[AutoPenalti]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.

[Ken711]

I have a feeling the Mid-Atlantic between NC and VA are likely landfall points when all is said and done.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be treated as such. They are of my opinion and current knowledge and should NOT be used as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.

Boldness reigns today as folks who were all in for a significant west model shift are suddenly all in for a significant east shift. Wow!

[SeGaBob]

I've had the same message all along... east of Bermuda. If i am wrong then so be it...

[centuryv58]

one, this will be a cat 4 or 5

2. It may not have formed quite yet. Not able to close this off on high resolution satellite imagery

That's pretty bold.

Boldness reigns today as folks who were all in for a significant west model shift are suddenly all in for a significant east shift. Wow!

I'd like to see some significant shift--in some direction-- but none yet.

[wxman57]

our system is looking good today. It might be just me but it seems to be consolidating a bit more to the north. In any case...I can't wait to see the first 5 day from the NHC which I fully expect later today.

Don't expect any surprises, revelations in a 5-day track. They'll take the storm west for 4-5 days, to north of Venezuela at day 5. It's the 6-10 day track that's uncertain.

Recon appears to be having trouble finding a center. They did just find some SW winds but not where they were expecting, apparently.