ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

[SouthFLTropics]

On a side note and somewhat off topic...I have two sons.

One of them is named after South Florida's most famous hurricane...Andrew. My other son is, you guessed it, Matthew. I can't help but notice the irony here. Or maybe it's just a coincidence. Ever since the name Matthew replaced Mitch I always watch this storm with great interest.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking better organized to me, the center ( compared to the NHC init) either got pulled NE or it was there all along ( vort center). Look like depression to me as well. Once the SW side of the circ wraps it look primed to go. The curved banding looks more balanced relative to the center and Dvorak numbers are improving. Have to see if the shear gets hold of it tonite.

[Dean4Storms]

The Buoy out there well East of the Lesser Antilles is seeing Tropical Storm force gusts this morning to near 40mph. I think this is already a TD and could easily be a TS by time Recon gets out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[LarryWx]

IF this is declared a TD by 55W and if it later hits the CONUS, this would then become the only TC on record that hit the Conus after forming east of 55W after 9/25.

[p1nheadlarry]

Looks like the NHC will wait until recon:

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/780738262444961792

Probably the wise choice. It's getting close to closing if anything.

[La Sirena]

On a side note and somewhat off topic...I have two sons.

One of them is named after South Florida's most famous hurricane...Andrew. My other son is, you guessed it, Matthew. I can't help but notice the irony here. Or maybe it's just a coincidence. Ever since the name Matthew replaced Mitch I always watch this storm with great interest.

Well, that's a riot! What are the odds? I hope that's not a sign lol.

My stepson is named Andrew AND shares a birthday with the Florida landfall of Hurricane Andrew. My stepson preceded the hurricane by a couple of years, though.

[wxman57]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

[ThetaE]

IF this is declared a TD by 55W and if it later hits the CONUS, this would then become the only TC on record that hit the Conus after forming east of 55W after 9/25.

I'm not entirely sure on the accuracy of this claim. I mean, I know that it's true based on historic records, but I'd be willing to bet that some of those land-falling storms would've been classified east of 55W if we had the same technology we do today. And anyway, I generally dislike broad statements like that, because they're just too generalizing of something as complex as the atmosphere. Basically, I don't think it really matters if it forms east or west of 55W after such and such date, but I still think it'll be interesting to see if it does break that "record."

[Gustywind]

The Buoy out there well East of the Lesser Antilles is seeing Tropical Storm force gusts this morning to near 40mph. I think this is already a TD and could easily be a TS by time Recon gets out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

You may be right. Looks like with my untrained eyes that sustained winds reached 33 kts while gusts close to 40 kts.

[p1nheadlarry]

IF this is declared a TD by 55W and if it later hits the CONUS, this would then become the only TC on record that hit the Conus after forming east of 55W after 9/25.

I'm not entirely sure on the accuracy of this claim. I mean, I know that it's true based on historic records, but I'd be willing to bet that some of those land-falling storms would've been classified east of 55W if we had the same technology we do today. And anyway, I generally dislike broad statements like that, because they're just too generalizing of something as complex as the atmosphere. Basically, I don't think it really matters if it forms east or west of 55W after such and such date, but I still think it'll be interesting to see if it does break that "record."

Not sure when the 1938 storm formed (it hit at the end of September iirc) but I think Hazel qualifies.

[NDG]

IMO, FL is not out of the woods by no means, the more westward 97L moves before it starts feeling the weakness over the eastern US the closer it can get to FL once the weakness lifts out and ridging builds over the NE US.

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

You just gave us the kiss of death!!! Last time you were going to take time off and then Hermine ruined your plans. Stay out of Florida!!! LOL, J/K

[centuryv58]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

If not, you might consider California for your vacation plans, not FL.

[sma10]

IF this is declared a TD by 55W and if it later hits the CONUS, this would then become the only TC on record that hit the Conus after forming east of 55W after 9/25.

It's likely going to be close Larry (on both fronts)

[otowntiger]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

Thanks wxman57. Me too! Hopefully there will be no disruptions to your vacation here!

[centuryv58]

The trend is not Florida's friend as of this morning, unfortunately.

[drezee]

The Buoy out there well East of the Lesser Antilles is seeing Tropical Storm force gusts this morning to near 40mph. I think this is already a TD and could easily be a TS by time Recon gets out there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

You may be right. Looks like with my untrained eyes that sustained winds reached 33 kts while gusts close to 40 kts.

Yes, 1min was 33kts and gusts to 41knts

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying the turn up east of Florida scenario, the ECM, ECM EPS, GEM have trended well west and the GFS is slowly trending more west before a turn. My opinion is that this weakness is enough to get it stair stepping more NW but not until it gets closer to 80W, lookout South Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico!

[gatorcane]

NHC initialized it at 11.3N/52.5W at 12Z, which looks about 1 deg too far south. I certainly think it's at least a depression now. Perhaps an upgrade by 15Z? A potential threat to the East U.S. Coast, but not anytime soon.

Are you still thinking about a 20% threat?

Afraid not. Maybe closer to 50% now. I'm thinking Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, though, not as much Florida. I'll be heading your way (Orlando) for vacation on Oct. 10-14. Don't want any storm there!

Everyone along the East U.S. Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm.

Wxman57 so I guess you are siding with the GFS then which suggests a turn to the north well east of Florida and into the Northeast US? The ECMWF/GFDL/NAVGEM certainly suggest Florida is at risk here. The trend last night with these models certainly not good for Florida.