ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NWFL56]

Seems like there is a lot of dry air off to the SW. Plus no deep convection has consolidated near the "center." I am really wondering if the GFS is way too overbullish in the Eastern/Central Caribbean with this system.

As usual the GFS is likely WAY over bullish with this and it will likely struggle some though not like the vast majority of the storms this season.

no... you CANNOT use the year as a reason to say this will not develop. You have to look at the environment. And the environment goes beyond deep level shear and dry air. The environment is going to be perhaps the most favorable since 2005, if not more favorable than it was then

Imho, it looks like a consolidating TC/TD moving into a juicy, favorable area with nothing standing in it's way to intensify; except possibly it's forward speed.

[Hammy]

Given how this is getting that curled up ball look, it wouldn't surprise me to see the "if trends continue" pre-upgrade line in the next TWO--probably 90/90 or even 100%. Especially since that massive outer band Alyono pointed to earlier appears to be weakening as more central convection develops.

[SeGaBob]

Given how this is getting that curled up ball look, it wouldn't surprise me to see the "if trends continue" pre-upgrade line in the next TWO--probably 90/90 or even 100%.

Kind of odd to hear this from you.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical
cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical
depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while
the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the
Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Hammy]

Given how this is getting that curled up ball look, it wouldn't surprise me to see the "if trends continue" pre-upgrade line in the next TWO--probably 90/90 or even 100%.

Kind of odd to hear this from you.

I just call it as I see it.

[SeGaBob]

Given how this is getting that curled up ball look, it wouldn't surprise me to see the "if trends continue" pre-upgrade line in the next TWO--probably 90/90 or even 100%.

Kind of odd to hear this from you.

I just call it as I see it.

Yeah I got lucky earlier with the 2pm TWO.

[Hurrilurker]

Yep, it definitely looks organized in the last 4-6 hours. Clear, symmetrical rotation now, looks like a real storm for the first time. Convection looks a bit thin and scattered though, doesn't look like something that's going to blow up dramatically in the next 48 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

[USTropics]

Some convection starting to build around the south and eastern side of the circulation. Probably still a bit broad at the surface just due to the vast size of it, but starting to get there.

[abajan]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 17N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 13N
to 16N between 46W and 52W. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may develop during the next day or two. This system
is moving westward to west-northwestward about 20 mph.
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. The chance
of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale wind
conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N semicircle
of the low center, and sea heights are forecast to range from 10
feet to 14 feet. Please refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...

[abajan]

Given how this is getting that curled up ball look, it wouldn't surprise me to see the "if trends continue" pre-upgrade line in the next TWO--probably 90/90 or even 100%. Especially since that massive outer band Alyono pointed to earlier appears to be weakening as more central convection develops.

Nailed it!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxdickey/status/780705089660948480

[Kazmit]

There's some shear ahead of it. While I expect this to become a TC today, rapid strengthening could be put on hold until it passes 65/70W. Shear changes all the time, so maybe it'll ease some before it enters the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Those share maps give wait to euro if you asked me delayed development a bit

[Gustywind]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 17N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 13N
to 16N between 46W and 52W. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may develop during the next day or two. This system
is moving westward to west-northwestward about 20 mph.
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. The chance
of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale wind
conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N semicircle
of the low center, and sea heights are forecast to range from 10
feet to 14 feet. Please refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...

No mention of the low pressure? What does it mean? Surprising TWD.

[Gustywind]

From SSD... looks like there's a relocation more east... still at 1.0/1.0.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/0545 UTC 11.5N 50.6W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L

[abajan]

It's going to kill itself over Cuba if it gets trapped there too long.

Flora maintained hurricane intensity while meandering over Cuba for 4 days.

[abajan]

From SSD... looks like there's a relocation more east... still at 1.0/1.0.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/0545 UTC 11.5N 50.6W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L

The updated severe weather statement issued at 6 AM by our Met office estimates the center to be near 11.3N 51.7W.

[otowntiger]

Alyono.....if you had to take an early shot in the dark....who in the United Stayed has the best shot of getting hit? Gulf? Or East Coast

Between the Gulf and East Coast, definitely the East Coast. Chances are greater, though, that it hits neither. I'd put my money on Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. I'm not saying the U.S. is in the clear. Maybe a 20% chance of East Coast, 80% east of the U.S. It's really hard to drive a storm westward into the Gulf this time of year.

Oh, the ASCAT pass at 00Z did catch the NE part of the disturbance. There was one flagged 35kt and a few 30kt winds, but not enough data to confirm the LLC. NHC won't upgrade without recon in there or a good ASCAT pass late tomorrow morning, which would mean at 21Z tomorrow.

Sounds very reasonable and very good news. Thanks for your input wxman57. I think this holds true for most storms forming in the eastern/central Atlantic anytime of year. Just look at historical tracks.

[Gustywind]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 17N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 13N
to 16N between 46W and 52W. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may develop during the next day or two. This system
is moving westward to west-northwestward about 20 mph.
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. The chance
of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale wind
conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N semicircle
of the low center, and sea heights are forecast to range from 10
feet to 14 feet. Please refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...

The RED cone is more larger and now includes more Windwards to the north like Martinica and Dominica, Guadeloupe does not seem so far too. Let's continue to keep an eye on this one. Don't let your guard down islanders.