ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

[Alyono]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

[Gustywind]

26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

That's why i posted that (see below)... maybe showing what we were talking about yesterday night Luis ...with these expanding banding of convection in the north and northeast quadrant of 97L trying to race on more wnw course than Westerly?!

Whereas if this trend continues, islands north of Martinica could feel more effects than expected, shoud it verfies first. Let's wait and see.

From SSD... maintains 1.0 numbers while seems a bit more north in latitude...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2345 UTC 11.2N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L

[hcane27]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

And this would inhibit strengthening ??

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092700, , BEST, 0, 102N, 502W, 25, 1008, DB

[Alyono]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092700, , BEST, 0, 102N, 502W, 25, 1008, DB

The bt position is a movement of 18 kts which is fine

[gatorcane]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

And this would inhibit strengthening ??

Yep and you can see what Alyono is referring to in the image below. Anticyclone is over it but there is shear ahead of it to the west:

[robbielyn]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

what are the implications of this if it doesn't slow down and outruns the anticyclone? less chance of development? that would keep it from development till west of 70 and support the euro no? the original forecast was 20-25mph when it was still a pouch two days ago then reforcasted down to 15-20 mph. euro keeps it weak til after crossing windwards

[Alyono]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

what are the implications of this if it doesn't slow down and outruns the anticyclone? less chance of development? that would keep it from development till west of 70 and support the euro no? the original forecast was 20-25mph when it was still a pouch two days ago then reforcasted down to 15-20 mph. euro keeps it weak til after crossing windwards

Even the ec slows this down dramatically

[TJRE]

23:45 UTC

sat view looks very ominous

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.jpg

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

[robbielyn]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. It could wind up west of the anti cyclone. No model showed this

what are the implications of this if it doesn't slow down and outruns the anticyclone? less chance of development? that would keep it from development till west of 70 and support the euro no? the original forecast was 20-25mph when it was still a pouch two days ago then reforcasted down to 15-20 mph. euro keeps it weak til after crossing windwards

Even the ec slows this down dramatically

levi cowan said it would run into some shear and that would keep it weak till after windwards.

[CDO62]

23:45 UTC

sat view looks very ominous

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.jpg

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Very cool. Thanks

[TJRE]

0000 UTC 500mb steering layer....fwiw

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

scroll back thru the time step box....from the above link
possible west to southwest influence (trend) has begun

[GCANE]

TCFA

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092700, , BEST, 0, 102N, 502W, 25, 1008, DB

[stormreader]

Posted a couple of hours ago on model thread. I favor a western solution toward the Yucatan Channel for the storm. But I just looked at the storm loop for the first time today. Man, the system is really looking "bad"! And I mean bad as in serious. Take a look."! Very large and rolling in.

[GCANE]

White indicates high rain-rate hot towers, firing on the periphery of the circulation.

This could end up being a wide core.

[abajan]

This needs to slow down. Its now moving at 25 kts. ...

That's the first thing which struck me when I viewed the latest IR satellite loop:

[Sanibel]

Looks poorly organized to me.

[USTropics]

The vorticity has been improving at all levels today, the circulation is just very large and still moving at a fast pace. It's not poorly organized compared to yesterday, that's for sure. Gradual development as expected.

lol-level vorticity at 850mb:


The 500mb vort barely registered last night, looking better today: