ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

One big difference between the globals that hasn't been discussed much is something I'm going to be most interested in: The UK/Euro have been consistent on every run the past several days in diving the system to the SW between 65-70W. The GFS does not do this - rather it takes a very smooth W-WNW path thru the Eastern Caribbean. This seems to be the main reason why the GFS is "faster" in bringing 97L up past 20N. I think we will know in about 72-96 hrs which solution is more likely to be correct, by whether this movement towards SA actually takes place.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/780434017782865920

[LarryWx]

Now that we're past 9/25 I can say this: not one TC on record that had its TC genesis east of 55W from today's date onward made it to the CONUS as an intact TC. I was amazed when I discovered this. So, I'll be looking to see at what longitude is TC genesis (assuming it occurs).

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/780434017782865920

Seems to me, Flora should have been included too.
EDIT: Perhaps it was named at 10N and not below. I'll have to check.
EDIT 2: Looks like it was named just above 10N.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/780446371329474563

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/780445868524724224

[Alyono]

starting to see inflow developing and the circulation becoming better defined

I'd say an 80% chance this is Matthew tomorrow

[MGC]

Looks like 97L is getting its act together at a good clip. Would not be surprised if its not declared a TC tomorrow.....MGC

[tolakram]

latest saved rgb

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/780455888918286336

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing 70/90 at 2pm.

[Medtronic15]

I'm guessing 90/90 at 2pm.

At 5pm Mathew

[abajan]

I'm guessing 70/90 at 2pm.

Sounds about right to me. We'll know shortly.

[HurrMark]

Probably not a TC till tomorrow morning. Still a little work to do getting organized.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/780458055578243072

[cycloneye]

70%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Good video discussion by Mark Sudduth.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/780462154252062720

[abajan]

Good video discussion by Mark Sudduth.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/stat ... 4252062720

Great video by Mark, Luis! Thanks for sharing.

[OntarioEggplant]

I like how the NHC just refused to show anything in their cone past Puerto Rico in this update lol

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2016092618, , BEST, 0, 99N, 486W, 25, 1008, DB