ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

it should slowly consolidate tomorrow. nce a well defined circulation forms, we could see immediate rapid intensification from this

Is that a typo? If not, what does "nce" mean? Is it an abbreviation of some sort?

[Alyono]

yep. Meant to say once

[weatherwindow]

it should slowly consolidate tomorrow. nce a well defined circulation forms, we could see immediate rapid intensification from this

Is that a typo? If not, what does "nce" mean? Is it an abbreviation of some sort?

Not to worry Bajan...the word is once...Rich

[Alyono]

regarding some projections of 10s of thousands dead if this hits Haiti, this will have to move slowly over Haiti to cause those totals. It is the flooding that will cause the deaths. A slower moving cat 1 or even TS is far worse for Haiti than a quick moving cat 5

[abajan]

it should slowly consolidate tomorrow. nce a well defined circulation forms, we could see immediate rapid intensification from this

Is that a typo? If not, what does "nce" mean? Is it an abbreviation of some sort?

Not to worry Bajan...the word is once...Rich

LOL How the heck could I not have realized that? Must be in a daze due to looking at these threads about 97L too much.
I'm off to bed now. Good Night to all.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the massive size of 97L, no question it potentially has the makings of being an extremely massive and devastating tropical cyclone once it is in the Caribbean.

It definitely potentially could have the appearance of those classic Western Pacific typhoons. It has been quite a long time of seeing such a potentially massive cyclone in this basin.

It is still way too soon to speculate beyond the next 120 hours where 97L is is headed. We only know at this juncture with a good censnsus that somewhere in the Caribbean the next 5 days or so will be staring down this potential monster.

I just will not speculate at this point beyond the next five days. I will leave it at that for now.

[SouthernBreeze]

I found this track of Hazel very interesting in comparison to 97L


The posts is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. Just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data, and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[GeneratorPower]

I found this track of Hazel very interesting in comparison to 97L
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Tropi ... el1954.gif

The posts is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. Just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data, and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sorry. The misspelled the words in that graphic don't inspire confidence.

[Blown Away]

Hazel track looks just like 18z GFS up to @30N then OTS...

[Steve]

Hey northjax,

Your concern about the potential came shining through in that post. I don't know man. It could be bad for a lot of people and countries. Hopefully not. But you seem to have the antennas up.

[gatorcane]

As far as any potential US/Florida impacts, I am going to be watching the models closely to see how much ridging builds back over the SW Atlantic once the large cut-off low moves out of the Eastern US later this week. It seems to me there is some potential for some ridging to return since there doesn't seem to be any short-waves or troughs sweeping the US between days 8-12 which would indicate a clear-cut recurve away from the SE US. Instead there is a large high that builds around the Great Lakes area. The 12Z NAVGEM hinted at this as well and also why I think we have almost half of the GFS ensembles into South Florida and many ECMWF ensembles much further west than the ECMWF operational.

[Stormcenter]

Surprises me as always to see many on this board already making the all clear call for some areas of the U.S. based on model outputs.
We all know it's way too early to do that. IMO

[SouthernBreeze]

I found this track of Hazel very interesting in comparison to 97L

Sorry. The misspelled the words in that graphic don't inspire confidence.

It seems Southerners spell things as they pronounce them!

[northjaxpro]

Hey northjax,

Your concern about the potential came shining through in that post. I don't know man. It could be bad for a lot of people and countries. Hopefully not. But you seem to have the antennas up.

I am very concerned.even this early in the scheme of things. There are so many variables pertaining to this system with regards to intensity, and to the synoptic set-up looking down the road. I am very concerned with the potential impacts this system could have in the Caribbean first and foremost. Somewhere down there could be really in for serious devastating implications from 97L.

The possibilities after the next five days are too many at this time, and for me, it is too mindbogling going out more than 7-10 days out. There will be many changes with the models in the days to come with regards to the synoptic pattern. This is why I hold steadfast to my.personal rule of thumb of not trusting models past 5 days.

In the meantime, I just hope that all interests in the Caribbean are preparing now and paying attention to the latest on this system.

[Bocadude85]

Good discussion from NWS Miami.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MFL&issuedby=MFL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

DISCUSSION...
Summer continues to hold on across southern Florida this weekend
with warm, moist air and a light easterly flow. A frontal system
will push across the country early in the week, with the frontal
boundary pushing into Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of
the front, our area will remain with a moist and warm pattern
which will continue to provide chances for showers and storms
through much of the period. Aloft, a cutoff low is being resolved
by guidance to develop over the eastern third of the country.

It will be crucial for the forecast on Friday, Saturday, and next
Sunday to see exactly how far the front is able to push south into
the peninsula of Florida. Behind the front, cooler and drier air
will bring a taste of autumn. The question for much of Florida
will be how far will the front progress before stalling. Another
question heading into next weekend will be the potential for a
tropical system nearing the Greater Antilles. The forecast beyond
Thursday is quite fluid and will likely change as model ensemble
spreads are still quite far apart in their solutions.

MARINE...

[tolakram]

Looks like some organization has started.

[StormClouds63]

Not only is the forecast intensity concerning, but it looks like it's going to be an extremely large circulation (Ike, Gilbert, Carla).

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or am i just tired but it seems I see a circulation at 9.9N 44W

[SouthernBreeze]

I'm not really seeing any spin yet. Recon still scheduled for Tue flights? Sure wish they'd fly in earlier, as fast as it's moving along

[SouthernBreeze]

Early 2AM update:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent