2016 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

here we go, looks like the beginning of future 96w is here.
Currently positioned in the vicinity of Pohnpei / Kosrae. It is expected to move in a generally westward manner under another strong ridge...this one also looks ominous.
BTW, the energy stored at the Philippine Sea south of 15N still remains largely untapped as of this moment.

EDIT: It's now tagged - 96W

[euro6208]

NAVGEM kinda drops the east basin system for now in the latest run after showing it becoming a typhoon east of the Marianas.

The 3rd system didn't develop at all. Fail CMC. It still has Chaba although weaker but strengthens more as it passes the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Latest EURO long range has two systems on either sides of the Marianas.

Chaba and Aere?

[euro6208]

Looking forward to the future, GFS develops 2 more systems, Seems to agree with NAVGEM and CMC on the dateline system.

But hold and behold, it develops another system near Guam at super long range, 384 hours and approaching Okinawa at 966mb.

18Z drops all sort of development and for the past 3 runs.

[1900hurricane]

It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

[euro6208]

It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

Also the area (13.5N, 145E) east and southeast of Guam to the dateline has been remarkably quiet. Do you see any long tracked typhoon to originate from here?

The majority of the strongest typhoons to hit Guam and the Marianas occurred after this time.

[mrbagyo]

It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

The southern portion of the Philippine Sea is still untouched... When the STR migrates a little more to the south, which is more likely to happen at the of end of September or in October, majority of the track would be oriented towad Luzon, classic west runner across those untapped energy.

[1900hurricane]

It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

Also the area (13.5N, 145E) east and southeast of Guam to the dateline has been remarkably quiet. Do you see any long tracked typhoon to originate from here?

The majority of the strongest typhoons to hit Guam and the Marianas occurred after this time.

It's possible, but the background state doesn't look the most favorable for eastern basin storms this year. El Ninos are much more favorable for that type of storm track than cool neutral years. Still though, regardless of ENSO state, development from near-equatorial troughs have been pretty hot the past four years. I don't know if there's anything more than chance that has played a part in that, but it is noteworthy. Late season storms the develop from near-equatorial troughs the central and eastern portions of the basin can be some of the most intense.

[euro6208]

It looks like thee has been one track that has been optimized for maximum potential intensity. If a typhoon can manage to develop around 10*N to the south of Guam and then track towards Luzon, it will be tracking over a maximum in both surface temperatures and heat content. 96W looks like it will track a little north of this area, but it's something to watch going later into the season. That is a climatologically favored track for October.

Also the area (13.5N, 145E) east and southeast of Guam to the dateline has been remarkably quiet. Do you see any long tracked typhoon to originate from here?

The majority of the strongest typhoons to hit Guam and the Marianas occurred after this time.

It's possible, but the background state doesn't look the most favorable for eastern basin storms this year. El Ninos are much more favorable for that type of storm track than cool neutral years. Still though, regardless of ENSO state, development from near-equatorial troughs have been pretty hot the past four years. I don't know if there's anything more than chance that has played a part in that, but it is noteworthy. Late season storms the develop from near-equatorial troughs the central and eastern portions of the basin can be some of the most intense.

NWS sees some potential.

We expect to see a gradual southward drop for these developing disturbances as the season continues on. However, 96W, keeping consistent with many this season so far, will likely get its first official advisory in the vicinity of the Marianas. Still too early to say if that will be before or after at passes the Marianas. But the striking thing to note, is that all systems 'disturbing' the Marianas this year developed over or just after passing the Marianas (meaning it reached Tropical Depression status). 2015, however, had many storms develop well to our east and crossing over the Marianas as TS or TY.

Long story short, there is still a lot of season left ahead of us and we can't let our guard down.

[mrbagyo]

what's up with that convection north of the Kwajalein Atoll. It 's now separated from 96W.
Has some support from CMC and NAVGEM.

[euro6208]

what's up with that convection north of the Kwajalein Atoll. It 's now separated from 96W.
Has some support from CMC and NAVGEM.

It's getting more support. Now an invest 97W.

INVEST 97W

[euro6208]

EURO hinting on another storm near Luzon.

GFS very strong typhoon approaching the P.I.

[1900hurricane]

The general storm track is still a little north of the most favorable waters. It may be until mid October and into November until the prevailing storm track lines up with it. In the meantime though, it appears the basin may experience some low amplitude Madden-Julian forcing per Michael Ventrice's EPVM index.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/778958218277990401

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

The "tanking" of Southern Philippine Sea continues.
It might probably wake up in mid October and into November, and that would be extremely scary for P.I.

Highest potential is in the vicinity of Micronesia/Caroline Islands and in the Southern Philippine Sea.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM has another typhoon passing through the Northern Marianas first week of October.

CMC agrees.

[euro6208]

EURO although weaker on the latest run shows something around the Marianas first week.

[euro6208]

GFS still confused but on the low side of activity.