ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
This year's storms are a perfect example of why recon is still so necessary. We seem to have very little handle on strength of systems without flying into them.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Bermuda's under a tropical storm watch. It probably won't be too bad for them but the NHC mentions that they could experience the western edge of the TS-force wind field.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Completely unsurprisingly, it looks like Karl is a solid tropical storm per recon.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
OntarioEggplant wrote:Completely unsurprisingly, it looks like Karl is a solid tropical storm per recon.
That's probably why the Bermuda Weather Service just issued a Tropical Storm Warning.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
As Karl gets its act together hopefully it's wind radii contracts as it speeds up. Bermuda should be perfectly fine with the level of warning they raised. Here's to the beggining of hybrid frontal storm(s). Have a feeling there will be a few Nor Easter's this year.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
here webcam from Bermuda http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Karl is once again a Tropical Storm (pretty obvious on visible satellite loops that it has been for the past few hours):
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL
STORM...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:here webcam from Bermuda http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
Thanks for sharing that. I've used it before when Joaquin hit them and it's fun to watch.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Apparently still working out a little dry air, but definitely a slow strengthening trend.
Wind field on the weaker NW side of the storm probably won't extend out very far.
I think since the shear let up this slow development will continue.
Wind field on the weaker NW side of the storm probably won't extend out very far.
I think since the shear let up this slow development will continue.
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is this a REAL intensification trend though or another false start? There have been several of them this week. But this is the best Karl has looked yet.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:Is this a REAL intensification trend though or another false start? There have been several of them this week. But this is the best Karl has looked yet.
I would say it's the real deal this time, though likely slow--unlike the past few attempts, recon wasn't there to confirm what was actually happening, and the shear analysis was underestimated--in this instance we have both confirmed so while there may still be some center reformation closer to the convection, the most favorable conditions are likely starting to arrive now.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
To think this storm has been alive for almost 9 days now. Imagine what the ACE could have been like if it actually had gotten it's act together sooner.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours
ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still
located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is
more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined. Tonight's
upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated
minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous
reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb. A
NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level
wind of 61 kt. These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.
Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of
days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.
After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic
mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful
extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a
much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone
in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current
organization trend.
Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of
325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of
the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to
turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl
is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow
ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer
to Bermuda in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the tightly packed model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 27.9N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 31.5N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 48.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
Forecaster Avila
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours
ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still
located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is
more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined. Tonight's
upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated
minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous
reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb. A
NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level
wind of 61 kt. These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.
Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of
days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.
After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic
mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful
extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a
much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone
in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current
organization trend.
Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of
325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of
the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to
turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl
is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow
ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer
to Bermuda in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the tightly packed model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 27.9N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 31.5N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 48.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karl's maximum sustained winds have now increased to 60 mph.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abajan wrote:Karl's maximum sustained winds have now increased to 60 mph.
This situation is looking a lot like Fay from 2 years ago. A strengthening storm heading right at Bermuda.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karl finally getting serious, and to the naked eye it looks as though it may have taken a little jog west.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Karl has a nice structure this morning. I would say is the best looking non hurricane tropical cyclone of the season.
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