Texas Fall-2016

[Tireman4]

What I'm seeing is if the models are forecasting cooler weather 5-8 days out, don't believe it. Eventually they have to be right but maybe not until mid-late October.

Oh but when they show excessive heat at 300+ hours you can book it...

Nails.. lol. If it is heat. Lol

[Brent]

I'm going to assume the mid 40s at DFW on the 18z GFS at 360 hours will not verify.

[Ntxw]

Lucky enough to get a downpour from the lonely storm near the airport. Man it felt like a sauna. The airport itself too did manage to pick up a little bit of rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Interestingly, this ridge is of roughly the same strength we typically find during July and August, so it's no surprise that temperatures over the next couple of days will be unusually hot and at near record levels. The ridge is forecast to weaken significantly late this week and long-range solutions indicate we shouldn't see a return of this kind of hot pattern anytime in the near future.

A change in the pattern is forecast to take place late week into this coming weekend when the ridge of high pressure over the south central US shifts to the Lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern US. At the same time, a large, broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop across the western US. The northern half of the trough is forecast to take off northeast to the northern Plains states late Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, the southern half of the trough is forecast to break away from the main trough and set up over the Desert Southwest this weekend, continuing into early next week. With the ridge weakening and a trough setting up over the southwestern US, we should begin to see a change in our weather. Gulf moisture will begin returning northwest into Texas Friday in advance of the southwestern trough, resulting in the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain Friday will be near 30 percent. A 30-40 percent for rain showers and thunderstorms will continue over the weekend and early next week as disturbances rotate around the southwestern trough and move across Texas. Periods of rain and thunderstorms are forecast. As of now, rain amounts through the upcoming period are not expected to be very heavy, with most totals around and an inch. However, this could change, depending on how the southwestern trough evolves. High temperatures are forecast to lower to around 90 degrees Friday and be near 88-90 degrees this weekend and early next week.

A weak cold front is forecast to spread south across Texas next Tuesday. This front is expected to bring slightly cooler weather for the second half of the week. High temperatures should lower to the mid and upper 80s with low temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. While not exactly fall weather, this front should produce a noticeable, pleasant change in the temperature.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

What an absurd total 180, the frame before this has temps pushing 100 east of us... would be unprecedented at the end of September. We're only in the 80s mostly.

[weatherdude1108]

Model hugging

000
FXUS64 KEWX 200925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
425 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The above mentioned area of high pressure aloft continues to
remain intact on Thursday. This area of high pressure should
continue to weaken and this will result in temperatures easing a
degree or two compared to Tuesday. Most areas will continue to
remain dry, with the exception being near the coastal plains. On
Friday, high pressure aloft begins to shift eastward in response
to a deepening low over the western U.S. This upper low is
forecast to slowly deepen while drifting eastward through the
remainder of the week into early next week. The medium range
models are also trending toward splitting this upper trough into
two separate systems early next week. While the exact track of
this upper system could change, it currently appears that rain
chances will be on the increase for the upcoming weekend into
early next week. The medium range models are also showing a cold
front moving into central Texas early next week. Again, model
differences are quite significant, and we will continue to monitor
this pattern.

&&

[Ntxw]

6z GFS has DFW in the 60s next Monday into Tuesday with 50s for lows. Euro dives a fairly good front around the same time. Maybe they are on to something now? At least it's not 10 days out...This would actually be a good time period since Malakas is now extratropical and part of the jet stream in the northern WPAC. The air mass really has been there, it's differences in placement of it and the path of the big ULL between model runs.

[Ralph's Weather]

I sure hope the models come close to verifying. I will try to take a look at them later todayb for myself.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, the CPC is optimistic with the moisture.

6 to 10-Day Precip.


8 to 14-Day Precip.

[weatherdude1108]

[weatherdude1108]

WPC 7-Day QPF

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro 12z is sticking to the big ULL low getting cut off over the plains and bringing us a big cool down. It shifted a bit more east on the 12z than the 0z shown in the pic above. I would welcome it! This would bring alot of rain for west texas wouldnt it?

[Ntxw]

DFW hit 100F again today. Just disgusting..

[Brent]

Breaking news it's raining in wylie!!!

Should have seen my face when I heard it on the roof at work lol

Also breaking news the 18z gfs is back to showing much more rain and cooler temperatures next week... in fact verbatim at dfw temps falling into the 60s Monday and near 70 Tuesday afternoon

The 12z euro had almost 6 inches of rain at dfw Sunday and Monday

[Ntxw]

Breaking news it's raining in wylie!!!

Should have seen my face when I heard it on the roof at work lol

Also breaking news the 18z gfs is back to showing much more rain and cooler temperatures next week... in fact verbatim at dfw temps falling into the 60s Monday and near 70 Tuesday afternoon

The 12z euro had almost 6 inches of rain at dfw Sunday and Monday

http://i64.tinypic.com/dg4ak4.png

Lucky . Yeah run to run there are difference. If they cut off the ULL in the southwest and buries it, not much cool or rain. But if they bring it out as a full latitude trough 180. It's on all the models, just where it goes. Of course cut off ULL's always gives fits.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS appears to be coming into agreement with the Euro(and consistent from the 18z), widespread rain overspreads the I-35 corridor on Sunday and Monday and temperatures would be much cooler. We'll see beyond that. It's not nearly as wet as the Euro, but temps are pretty similar... highs in the 70s Monday/Tuesday for most and 50s and 60s Tuesday morning.

Looking further out into next week... it keeps temps much cooler, near or below seasonal norms. Lows 50s and 60s, highs mostly in the 80s



and we end the run with a Cat 5 in the Gulf... that's right, hurricane season isn't over.

[Ntxw]

Im liking the trend for early next week. Been waiting for more than one run of the GFS, and kind of have it now. It looks like the idea of a more progressive trough is the better option. There is finally light at the end of the tunnel that isn't 10 days away.

[Brent]

Euro is still far more bullish on rainfall with nearly 5 inches at dfw most of it falling Sunday... but we have agreement on some rain at least and much much cooler temps now

[weatherdude1108]

EWX is on board with a pattern change.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 210855
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
355 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Continental sfc to 700 mb easterlies will help to ease up on the
high heat index values seen over the past few days. Broad high
pressure aloft will ensure that the winds remains fairly light,
which means the relief from the heat will be modest as morning
dew points still jump up into the low to mid 70s the next couple
days. A few heat index values should still manage to reach triple
digits over the Coastal Prairies. A weak upper level easterly
trough moves into Nrn Mexico tonight and brings in its wake a
subtle increase in mid-level onshore flow for Thursday. Most of
the models generate some light coastal QPF values that could
spread into our SErn counties by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

High pressure aloft begins to nudge eastward Thursday night and
further deepen and strengthen the onshore flow pattern in the low
to mid levels. Some seabreeze activity could make some good
progress into inland counties by Friday as a significant pattern
change begins to set up from an approaching high amplitude upper
trough from the Pacific.

Model runs have mostly shown poor consistency on the weekend
projections of the upper low that becomes quite deep as it moves
into the Great Basin on Friday. Ensemble runs show a converging
trend on much of the energy from the trough to drift north while a
secondary upper low deepens just to the west of TX Sunday.
Deterministic runs show this pattern to keep active upper level
wind currents to keep the lows from being completely cut off from
the polar westerlies, so have bought into the more persistent
solutions of the CMC/ECM runs over the past day or so. A consensus
of these runs will tap into a buoyant and unstable airmass from
the Eastern Pacific and set up a good chance for a large complex
of storms along a cold front which moves slowly through the area
Sunday into early Monday. With many of the GFS solutions holding
to a more cut-off upper pattern over Mexico and less strong
convection along the front, will hold off using the mention of
locally heavy rain and the use of categorical PoPs for now. Even
the more erratic GFS runs still maintain a cold front arrival, so
the best news is that the persistent heat will take a break over
the weekend.

Following the trend and favoring of the ECM solutions, increasing
stability is shown for late Monday into Tuesday. Based on the
upper trough position, some variations in sky cover could alter
this forecast, as could the influence of tropical cyclone
acitivity in the Eastern Pacific. For now, crisp morning lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected for most areas Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings, with highs unable to exceed the middle 80s
each afternoon.

&&

[weatherdude1108]

The 0z GFS appears to be coming into agreement with the Euro(and consistent from the 18z), widespread rain overspreads the I-35 corridor on Sunday and Monday and temperatures would be much cooler. We'll see beyond that. It's not nearly as wet as the Euro, but temps are pretty similar... highs in the 70s Monday/Tuesday for most and 50s and 60s Tuesday morning.

Looking further out into next week... it keeps temps much cooler, near or below seasonal norms. Lows 50s and 60s, highs mostly in the 80s



and we end the run with a Cat 5 in the Gulf... that's right, hurricane season isn't over.

Those pesky Cat. 5 Gulf hurricanes.