Texas Fall-2016

[gatorcane]

I assume you meant "no relief from the warm air", gatorcane.

whoops yep, fixed it.

[Tireman4]

Yep, that's some cold front moving through Texas next Monday. Might knock our highs down to the mid 90s. Better go check my furnace...

Oh man...here we go....piling on...ughh.

[wxman57]

Yep, that's some cold front moving through Texas next Monday. Might knock our highs down to the mid 90s. Better go check my furnace...

Oh man...here we go....piling on...ughh.

Are there any taunting penalties here on the forum?

[JDawg512]

I don't care about the cooler temps although would rather be in the 80s instead of 90s. As always my focus is on rainfall. With these kind of temps, currently 95 here at home just after 2:30 p.m, evaporation is in high gear drying out the topsoil. The only good thing (and I use good loosely) is that there is little to no wind to speed the process up. Downside to no wind is it feels miserable outside.

[Portastorm]

Yep, that's some cold front moving through Texas next Monday. Might knock our highs down to the mid 90s. Better go check my furnace...

Oh man...here we go....piling on...ughh.

Are there any taunting penalties here on the forum?

You (wxman57) better hope you're not that guy who drops the ball at the 1-yard line as he runs into the end zone! If we do get a winter, we will let you know it!

[Tireman4]

From our local OCM, Brooks Garner....(his blog)


HOUSTON - The only sign of fall has been the changing sun angle and shorter days. Otherwise, the heat is still blazing and you can still wear the air, as humidity values match those of July. It's safe to say that most of Houston is ready for the comfortable, autumn weather we can only dream of in August. Hang in, the inevitable pendulum of the changing season is only a few weeks away from swinging into Houston.

If history teaches us anything, it's that true fall air is likely to be only a few more weeks away. While there's no cold front on our door step today, there may be a weak front coming our way next week to at least take the tropical humidity out of the air, followed by a stronger one in early October which could actually drop temperatures.

Here's what history reminds us:

Our typical first 50s (for overnight lows) happen on ...

Earliest in history: 9/6/2011
Average first occurrence: 9/26
Latest occurrence: 10/19
Typical first 40s (for overnight lows) happen on ...

Earliest in history: 9/22/1983
Average first occurrence: 10/15
Latest occurrence: 11/18/15
Typical first 30s (for overnight lows) happen on ...

Earliest in history: 10/13/1977
Average first occurrence: 11/11
Latest occurrence: 12/13/1988
My feeling is that these summer doldrums will be but a distant memory before we know it. Who knows: this may be the year Houston gets snow! We can dream, right? If you like what you read, please like me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter. -Brooks

[Tireman4]

Yep, that's some cold front moving through Texas next Monday. Might knock our highs down to the mid 90s. Better go check my furnace...

Oh man...here we go....piling on...ughh.

Are there any taunting penalties here on the forum?

Yes, yes there are. In fact, that is a 15 yard penalty for taunting the good folks of fall. LOL

[Tireman4]

Oh man...here we go....piling on...ughh.

Are there any taunting penalties here on the forum?

You (wxman57) better hope you're not that guy who drops the ball at the 1-yard line as he runs into the end zone! If we do get a winter, we will let you know it!

You mean this guy....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWeqnsaJIFg

[wxman57]

I'm not really seeing any highs only into the 80s over the next 2 weeks in Houston. Looks like low-mid 90s for a while, meaning a late arrival of fall weather this year. I wouldn't mind some weekends with highs in the mid to upper 80s, which is about perfect temps for long bike rides. We may have to wait until the first week or two in October for the first 50s across Houston.

[gboudx]

DFW reached 100 today.

[Tireman4]

And the news just keeps getting better and better...sigh...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 191958
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
258 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heat index values are high (generally running 105 to 110 degrees near
the coast and 100 to 105 degrees well inland early this afternoon) due
to the area`s hot temperatures and elevated dew points. The heat advisory
issued this morning remains in effect until 7 PM. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop in this heat, but almost the entire area
should stay hot and dry. A tiny bit of relief is expected tomorrow with
slowly lowering dew points expected to keep peak heat index values in
a 100 to 105 degree range which are under heat advisory levels. It must
be noted that 100 to 105 degrees is still very dangerous, and precautions
should still be taken to stay safe. Some short term models and their
guidance numbers are showing an increase in rain chances late tonight
through tomorrow, but current thinking is that their numbers are way
too high so will be keeping central and south area rain chances at 20%
or less. Mid/upper level ridging building across the area during the
middle to end of the week will keep most of the area dry and very warm.
At the end of the week and over the weekend, this ridge edges a bit
off to the east, and increasing Gulf moisture spreading across the area
from strengthening onshore winds is expected to bring us rising rain
chances. Models are continuing their recent trend of keeping next week`s
cold front west of our area resulting in no significant early Fall cooldown.
But with clouds and possible showers and thunderstorms in the forecast,
high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, and that
should feel better than today`s mid to upper 90s.

See the climate section below for some details on this September`s heat.

42

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the middle Ohio valley will ridge into Texas
through Tuesday. A weak backdoor cool front is expected to bring
cross SE TX early Tuesday and sfc winds will briefly become NE. Low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies will allow for winds to
become E on Wednesday and SE Weds night. This deepening SE flow will
increase low level moisture and rain chances for Fri and Saturday and
also tighten the gradient with wind speeds increasing over the weekend.

43

[weatherdude1108]

And, the switcharoo.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 191939
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The upper ridge is expected to continue to be in place at the
beginning of the long-term forecast, but should be a bit weaker as
a weak trough axis moves through the central plains and causes it
to weaken. The forecast for Wednesday should remain mostly rain
free, but temperatures should cool a couple of degrees with the
weakening high. Should start to see the return of some Coastal
Plain showers on Thursday before rain chances increase Friday
through Monday. There still are some discrepancies with the
medium-range guidance. A large upper low is expected to move into
the western conus, but a ridge to the east should block it from
moving into Texas. Rain chances will be highly dependent on how
far east the low can make it. With the low possibly remaining well
to our west, the chances for a frontal passage associated with
the main trough axis should be low.

[wxman57]

12Z EC 2m temps has Houston with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s through the 29th (at least). No sign of any significant front across SE TX, at least.

[Brent]

DFW hit 100... first time since August 12th.

[Ntxw]

Hitting 100 this late is wrong on so many levels. We have been in some paradigm that September is consistently hot. Really its been slow starts and lasts well into Sept, as if summer has been displaced a month since 2011.

[weatherdude1108]

Hitting 100 this late is wrong on so many levels. We have been in some paradigm that September is consistently hot. Really its been slow starts and lasts well into Sept, as if summer has been displaced a month since 2011.

Yeah, it also feels like we're being punished by the relatively mild and WET last half of August most of us had. Must be a Law of Averages thing, or something. I don't know.

[Ntxw]

What is profoundly disturbing is that the guidance were advertising cooler conditions earlier in the month for this time period, nowhere close to how hot it is. With no clear drivers I fear forecasting will be a difficult task beyond 5 days for awhile.

[Brent]

it is pretty insane and it's really bothersome to see the models tease us and then take it away

[gboudx]

What I'm seeing is if the models are forecasting cooler weather 5-8 days out, don't believe it. Eventually they have to be right but maybe not until mid-late October.

[Brent]

What I'm seeing is if the models are forecasting cooler weather 5-8 days out, don't believe it. Eventually they have to be right but maybe not until mid-late October.

Oh but when they show excessive heat at 300+ hours you can book it...