ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

So the question is will the models keep shifting west in the long-range or is that as far west as they will go?

Well, most models expect a somewhat sharp recurve near the end of the NHC's current 5 day cone. I don't think it will go much farther west (or at least I hope not).

At this point it's a possibility.

[GeneratorPower]

So the question is will the models keep shifting west in the long-range or is that as far west as they will go?

first, Karl has to survive

I've been watching these systems for 15 years. Whenever I hear people talking about the imminent demise of a weaker system it NEVER happens. These things almost always survive in some form and track all the way across. Not as a major hurricane, necessarily but survive as a named system.

Edit: Just look at the seasonal track records showing every storm that year. How many lines end abruptly in the middle of the Atlantic. Nearly zero. They all end up swinging north and die in the northern Atlantic eventually.

[psyclone]

I suspect Karl will both survive and recurve well east of the US. this should be an interesting long tracker.

[jlauderdal]

im back to where i was 6 weeks ago..72 hours max on models...hermine it was down to 24 hours max as it was coming in from PR...its really sad how these have performed considering the amount of computing power and funds invested in model development

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/777285347990536192

[chaser1]

So the question is will the models keep shifting west in the long-range or is that as far west as they will go?

Well, most models expect a somewhat sharp recurve near the end of the NHC's current 5 day cone. I don't think it will go much farther west (or at least I hope not).

At this point it's a possibility.

I noticed a very odd but significant shift in the JMA's 12Z model run as compared to the previous. Significantly greater ridging over the E. Conus if it pans out that way. On the flip side, I had anticipated that Karl might slip even further south than it is appearing to do. Might yet continue to do so though, but too much might be a cause for its demise.

[chaser1]

im back to where i was 6 weeks ago..72 hours max on models...hermine it was down to 24 hours max as it was coming in from PR...its really sad how these have performed considering the amount of computing power and funds invested in model development

Yep, I fully agree. Bizarre how our technology to better forecast mid and large scale dynamics has seemingly deteriorated; certainly not having appeared to have improved.

[cycloneye]

The upswing in intensity is notable but look at HWRF.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track has no change in intensity and remains at 18.1N:

AL, 12, 2016091800, , BEST, 0, 181N, 407W, 40, 1005, TS

[Kazmit]

Models starting to show a recurve right into Bermuda. But the real question is how powerful Karl will become, and the intensity models have certainly gone up. HWFI shows a Cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

Models starting to show a recurve right into Bermuda. But the real question is how powerful Karl will become, and the intensity models have certainly gone up. HWFI shows a Cat 5.

I think the last ECMWF had 920mb or so just south of Bermuda.

[Kazmit]

Models starting to show a recurve right into Bermuda. But the real question is how powerful Karl will become, and the intensity models have certainly gone up. HWFI shows a Cat 5.

I think the last ECMWF had 920mb or so just south of Bermuda.

Yeah, the Euro just went up in intensity. If that comes true it'll most likely outdo Fabian for Bermuda's worst storm.

[Blown Away]

Deep/shallow system either way seems to be a recurve away from CONUS...

[tolakram]

Just coming into view.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-43&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[floridasun78]

i going wait and see too early to say Bermuda people need be worry

[Kazmit]

i going wait and see too early to say Bermuda people need be worry

I'd be worried if I was in Bermuda. But yes, I agree that we should give the future track a few days to become certain.

[Hammy]

Poorly organized and barely closed, if at all. The closest west winds on ASCAT were around 14N.

[floridasun78]

Poorly organized and barely closed, if at all. The closest west winds on ASCAT were around 14N.

hammy want wx bring out bone hammy say bye bye karl look hammy dont look models run

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016

Karl continues to struggle. The tropical storm is producing a few
patches of deep convection to the north and east of the exposed
center, but the cyclone lacks banding features. An ASCAT-B pass
just prior to 0000Z captured a portion of the circulation and showed
that the winds were lower there than they were in the previous pass.
Based on that data and the Dvorak classifications, the initial wind
speed is lowered a little to 35 kt.

The poor structure of Karl is likely due to the combined effects of
southwesterly shear and dry mid-level air. These unfavorable
atmospheric conditions and marginally warm sea surface temperatures
should keep Karl relatively steady state for the next day or so.
After that time, lower shear, slightly more moisture, and warmer sea
surface temperatures should allow the cyclone to strengthen. The
intensity models are a bit higher this cycle at the longer range,
and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward. This prediction lies
near the lower end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.

The center of Karl is moving south of due west at about 10 kt. A
general westward motion at a slightly faster pace is expected
during the next day or two while Karl is steered by the flow on the
south side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is
predicted beyond a couple of days as Karl moves on the southwestern
periphery of the ridge and toward a weakness. There is not a
significant amount of spread in the models, or the ensemble members
of the GFS and ECMWF, and the official forecast is largely an
update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 21.2N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 25.8N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kazmit]

Will stop losing latitude soon. Now expected to reach 85mph. The cone isn't showing a recurve yet, but I expect it to tomorrow.