ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

cmc and have it turnning by 48w and gfs round 50west too

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video. He discusses Julia first but most of the video is about Karl.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... k-for-now/

[gatorcane]

GFS further west by day 7

[floridasun78]

Pretty big west shift by the GFS beyond 5 days with more of a 500mb ridge over the eastern seaboard of the US and western Atlantic

i saw gfs it got turning nw and cmc same GFDL and hwrf are two show more west because high build to north

[gatorcane]

Yep the GFS has shifted west as of 12z...model image in the models thread

[jlauderdal]

GFDL-P show more weest track no turn yet last run east of Bahama http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=12L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016091706&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=99 two models run showing more west and getting strong by wed like hwrf

email craig setzer and see what he thinks

[floridasun78]

GFDL-P show more weest track no turn yet last run east of Bahama http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=12L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016091706&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=99 two models run showing more west and getting strong by wed like hwrf

email craig setzer and see what he thinks

i not sure if work on weekend he do some time their new guy do weekend some

[GCANE]

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[Hammy]

No TS winds as per latest ASCAT, and it barely looks closed. Won't surprise me to see Karl degenerate to a wave by tomorrow at this rate with regeneration seeming increasingly unlikely.

[gatorcane]

Pretty good WSW wobble looking at the sat loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[jason1912]

Euro a bit more south and stronger

[gatorcane]

BIG west shift by the Euro, recurves but further west. A lot more ridging over the Western Atlantic than it was showing in previous runs.

Animation of run through 192 hours:

[cycloneye]

Down to 18.1N at 18z Best Track and still as a 40kt storm.

AL, 12, 2016091718, , BEST, 0, 181N, 398W, 40, 1005, TS

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, and the EC is a lot stronger this run, gets down to 923 mb after passing Bermuda. Ridge is a bit stronger and trough is a little later.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF animation, by the way what is that out in front of Karl that develops?

[Hammy]

Yep, and the EC is a lot stronger this run, gets down to 923 mb after passing Bermuda. Ridge is a bit stronger and trough is a little later.

Hermine redux--I don't see this getting anywhere that strong. But the Euro was largely correct with the track so whatever's left of this by then could definitely be a threat to Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

If he had gone by the Euro runs a week ago this thing would be starting to recurve and gaining strength now. The Euro has not even been remotely close with its medium-range forecast for Karl. I am not even sure we can trust the Euro track a week out now either. Anyway, JMA with a significant west shift and now has it just east of the Bahamas in a week:

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop showing Karl losing latitude:

[tolakram]

Mild level water vapor loop shows the very dry air Karl is traversing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5new.html