ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Well,according to 00z Best Track is moving West at 275 degrees at 13kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13

AL, 12, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 186N, 364W, 40, 1005, TS

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Karl became our next major hurricane this season.

[gatorcane]

Well,according to 00z Best Track is moving West at 275 degrees at 13kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13

AL, 12, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 186N, 364W, 40, 1005, TS

I have no idea how they get 275 when looking at sat loops it is clearly WSW:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[TheStormExpert]

I would not be surprised if Karl became our next major hurricane this season.

If this were 2010 I'd agree with you, but this season is struggling more so than last season and we aren't even in an El Niño anymore.

[Alyono]

Well,according to 00z Best Track is moving West at 275 degrees at 13kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13

AL, 12, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 186N, 364W, 40, 1005, TS

I have no idea how they get 275 when looking at sat loops it is clearly WSW:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I got nearly the same motion. It's an illusion on satellite

[Hammy]

I would not be surprised if Karl became our next major hurricane this season.

If this were 2010 I'd agree with you, but this season is struggling more so than last season and we aren't even in an El Niño anymore.

Struggling more than last season? We were at 20 ACE with 9/2/1 at this point last year and we even had the first hurricane strike in Florida in 11 years. And there are still lingering Nino effects due to the tropical East Pacific water temps.

[Medtronic15]

Well,according to 00z Best Track is moving West at 275 degrees at 13kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13

AL, 12, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 186N, 364W, 40, 1005, TS

Well we'll.. Karl will missing next forescast point!

[TimeZone]

18z GFS drops further development through 168 hours

Lol! What a year thus far can't even put to much stock on the euro. Iam sticking to no development.

It's already developed.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I would not be surprised if Karl became our next major hurricane this season.

If this were 2010 I'd agree with you, but this season is struggling more so than last season and we aren't even in an El Niño anymore.

Struggling more than last season? We were at 20 ACE with 9/2/1 at this point last year and we even had the first hurricane strike in Florida in 11 years. And there are still lingering Nino effects due to the tropical East Pacific water temps.

No matter what anybody says this season is not struggling more than last. Matter of fact it is the least struggling season since 2012 as predicted.

[Kazmit]

Should be interesting to see what the 11pm advisory brings us. The fact that this is struggling right now was predicted, and it's not supposed to really strengthen until a few days from now. So we just need to wait.

[abajan]

Well,according to 00z Best Track is moving West at 275 degrees at 13kts.

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13

AL, 12, 2016091700, , BEST, 0, 186N, 364W, 40, 1005, TS

I have no idea how they get 275 when looking at sat loops it is clearly WSW:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I got nearly the same motion. It's an illusion on satellite

I can see now that further frames of the loop are appearing, it was just a wobble to the SW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

The deep convection with Karl is limited to the northeastern
quadrant because of the 20 kt westerly vertical shear currently
afflicting the tropical storm. Despite this, a 0007 UTC ASCAT
scatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of about 40 kt, which is
the initial intensity.

Karl should continue to struggle for the next day or so due to the
hostile vertical shear. The shear should relax as Karl reaches the
west side of an upper-level trough in about 36 to 48 hours. From
that point in time onward, Karl should be experiencing more
conducive conditions: gradually warming SSTs, a moist low to middle
troposphere, and low vertical shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
for Karl to weaken slightly within the next day and then steadily
strengthen starting in about two days onward. This is quite
similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the IVCN
multi-model consensus. However, confidence in Karl actually
becoming a hurricane in five days is low because of the spread in
the guidance.

Karl is moving toward the west at 13 kt. The Bermuda-Azores
high will be building in north of the tropical storm, helping to
propel Karl on a general westward track for the next couple of
days. Beginning in about three days, Karl will reach the western
periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and bend toward the
west-northwest. The reliable track models have substantial spread
- especially during days one to three - with some solutions
showing a west-southwesterly track, which is rarely seen in
this part of the Atlantic basin. The NHC track forecast is
slightly south of the previous advisory, and is based upon
the TVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial size of Karl is determined by the recent scatterometer
pass, which showed a large area of tropical-storm-force winds in the
northern semicircle, but none to the south. The NHC wind radii
forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.5N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 18.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.5N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.0W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1630 MI...2625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Ptarmigan]

If this were 2010 I'd agree with you, but this season is struggling more so than last season and we aren't even in an El Niño anymore.

It is not struggling as far as I am concerned. Looks more like a normal season to me.

[Kazmit]

Looks Bermuda-bound to me. I see somewhat of a resemblance to Igor's track here.

Karl:



Igor:

[floridasun78]

Looks Bermuda-bound to me. I see somewhat of a resemblance to Igor's track here.

Karl:



Igor:

The reliable track models have substantial spread
- especially during days one to three - with some solutions
showing a west-southwesterly track, which is rarely seen in
this part of the Atlantic basin. The NHC track forecast is
slightly south of the previous advisory, and is based upon
the TVCN multi-model consensus.

[floridasun78]

this not writing on stone will go Bermuda-bound tooo early to call not sure why some saying that if you read what nhc say could more southern track if not mistaking models are now bit more south and early today

[AutoPenalti]

this not writing on stone will go Bermuda-bound tooo early to call not sure why some saying that if you read what nhc say could more southern track if not mistaking models are now bit more south and early today

Wow, it looks like a legit stall out before the suppose recurve, this will definitely be interesting to watch.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS drops further development through 168 hours

Lol! What a year thus far can't even put to much stock on the euro. Iam sticking to no development.

It's already developed.

Longterm..

[tolakram]

Well I woke up just when the euro is running but no way I stay up for it. As far as track the CMC, Euro, GFS and even the JMA all have the same general idea so unless something dramatic changes the recurve seems pretty set, the only question is intensity.