ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JPmia]

Well I would agree with you on that one if it were still 2014. However, it has been 4 years of slop storms and shear no matter the ENSO values. This season we seen shear and dry air together which has created death traps for wannabe TCs. Karl could become a hurricane but it will get picked up by a trough. Just my opinion and I will leave it at that.

So you are upset that this storm isn't going to hit the US? If we have a hurricane that stays out at sea, shouldn't you be happy then?

No just expressing my views on what will happen with this storm. I thought that is what the forum is for. I live on the coast and again I stress I am more than happy with a quiet Atlantic. I am also a TC fanatic. However, it is just telling the plain old truth that in recent years the Atlantic has been pathetic. People hate hearing the truth but it is a statistical fact by ACE numbers and quality of storms. At least it is my opinion and the opinion of many experts in the field so I am not alone. Karl could become a decent storm I even mentioned this. To each their own though.

Perhaps this isn't the right thread, but I would really appreciate it if you would cite these "many" experts so I can read these theories for myself. I haven't found any expert saying what you're saying.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Convection is quite strong in the northeastward quadrant of Karl,
although the center has recently become exposed due to
moderate-to-strong westerly shear. There has been little
change to the overall satellite presentation in the past several
hours, and the initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. A continuation
of the shear is forecast to keep Karl from strengthening much over
the next day or two. This shear is forecast to relax by all of the
models by early next week, and some strengthening should then take
place while Karl moves over warmer waters. The amount of
intensification is a big question mark, with the GFS/ECMWF now
showing only a weaker tropical storm, while the rest of the standard
intensity guidance (HWRF, GFDL, SHIPS and LGEM models) have Karl as
a hurricane by the end of the period. Because of the uncertainty,
the intensity forecast is kept the same as the previous one, not too
far from the model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 280/12.
Model guidance has made a large northward shift today due to the
forecasted interaction of a mid/upper-level trough with Karl over
the next few days. Initially, the tropical cyclone was expected to
be on the western side of the trough, which would have helped steer
the cyclone more to the west-southwest over the next couple of
days. However, almost all of the guidance now show the trough
staying to the west of Karl, which would impart a west or
west-northwest motion during that time. The lack of a
west-southwest track has large implications down the line, with the
cyclone gaining a lot more latitude since Karl is closer to a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Continuity dictates that the
NHC forecast not be shifted as much as the guidance suggests for
this package, since the guidance could still shift back to the
south. A large northward adjustment is made to the NHC forecast at
all times, but it remains south of the model consensus and the
ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 18.8N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 19.0N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.0N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 19.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 20.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 22.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 25.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kazmit]

Looks like the NHC thinks the ridge building soon will be less strong than they thought. The new cone was adjusted to a less southernly track.

[Cunxi Huang]

Oh ---. Euro +240h 933 mb. Karl really looks like a top cat 4 or even stronger on the ir simulated image +186h.

Where did you get that simulated image from?

I believe it's from http://models.weatherbell.com. Someone posted it in China Typhoon bbs and then i posted it here. You have to pay for those products like $25 per month and $185 per year i think, really expensive.

[HurricaneBelle]

This is why the "foe" feature is a great asset. On Karl, I really hope he gets it together and adds a ton of ACE. 11/5/2 would look pretty good for Mid-Late September.

Yes it is - I make liberal use of the "foe" list. The problem is that people quote and respond to those I referenced so I end up seeing it anyway.

[tolakram]

Ok, let's get back to the discussion. Thanks!

[Hammy]

Surprised the intensity wasn't lowered on the latest advisory, looks like a depression at the moment.

[gatorcane]

18z GFS drops further development through 168 hours

[GCANE]

[Steve H.]

Yes it is sheared and heading sw currently.

[psyclone]

Well shear has thrashed Karl but also revealed a very vigorous circulation so it's likely to survive and eventually thrive. there's a decent chance this storm could provide a much needed Ace bump when all is said and done.

[gatorcane]

Seems to be losing latitude with the SW movement

[SFLcane]

18z GFS drops further development through 168 hours

Lol! What a year thus far can't even put to much stock on the euro. Iam sticking to no development.

[SFLcane]

Land of the swirlies..

[blp]

Seems to be losing latitude with the SW movement

Yes no way the models or the NHC forecast will verify since they have it moving West and was not supposed to start the SW motion for a few days. This one is still not settled.

[Kazmit]

It could be an illusion. Even if it is losing some latitude, it likely won't be much, and it should regain it. Nonetheless, I'm only seeing a vague WSW movement...

[Medtronic15]

It could be an illusion. Even if it is losing some latitude, it likely won't be much, and it should regain it. Nonetheless, I'm only seeing a vague WSW movement...

SW movement ......

[JaxGator]

Depending on how SW Karl goes will have a huge impact on where he'll end up down the road. As the NHC said in their last discussion.

[abajan]

It could be an illusion. Even if it is losing some latitude, it likely won't be much, and it should regain it. Nonetheless, I'm only seeing a vague WSW movement...

SW movement ......
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

That's no illusion.

[Hammy]

Doesn't even look closed based on latest ASCAT pass. I was probably very wrong on surmising last night that this may be a strong system down the road--I think there's no chance of that and in all likelihood it's already peaked, and will probably not last another day or two given the environment it's headed into.