ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

ok other question now ts would track change because stronger and starting taking more northern track??

[floridasun78]

i have question if because is ts that not forecast until Mon will take more north because stronger?

[AutoPenalti]

A lot of models are taking a dip Southward, it could be a worry down the road.

[Steve]

I'm still not seeing a recurve. It's too far out to say where this is going.

I'm saying this with all due respect, but...

If you told me that a TD formed from an African wave at the latitude and longitude of the Cape Verde Islands in mid-Sept, without looking at a single piece of model guidance, I could guess that it was going to recurve and be right ~95% of the time.

Agreed. There will be more and more fronts, but even with the damage that Julia and Hermine have done to the sst's, the water is still plenty enough warm for ridging to keep roaring back between now and probably late November, though obviously weaker as time goes on. It initially looks like it should be a recurve. Georges 98 (analog year for some) formed at a lower level and hit the edge of the Caribbean. So though 9/15/10-1, not really a comparative system.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 32.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and
the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over
the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge
of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has
continued to expand southwestward over the center despite
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite
estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt
using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated
several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in
the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of
the season.

Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening
Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that
time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn
back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State
Superensemble model.

Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind
shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit
significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the
120-h period. That would normally result in more robust
strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.
However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level
moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is
forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt
per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.

The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on
the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 32.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[weathaguyry]

Well there you go, we have three named storms at once in the Atlantic, although not the best quality storms, it still is three storms no matter how you slice it!

[cycloneye]

I can see Karl getting plenty of ACE units but it all depends if it mantains as a TC and if it goes bonkers like the ECMWF has.

[abajan]

Hello KARL?

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

If true, that's 50 mph and wasn't expected to happen for another 5 days!

Oops! Only after seeing the latest advisory did I realize my math was wrong. 40 x 1.1515 is actually 46.06 which is closer to 45 than 50.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking this will maintain if not slowly intensify the next few days but after that will be the unknown, lets hope nothing like the Euro because that would be a cat 3\4 approaching land

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[floridasun78]

nhc got close to be hurr by day 5 at 70mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0256.shtml?

[Hurricaneman]

nhc got close to be hurr by day 5 at 70mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0256.shtml?

They're taking the Euro into account I would think based on their forecast

[northjaxpro]

This tropical cyclone COULD potentially be a big one if the EURO plays out down the road Still a long way out though.

[Hurricaneman]

Id say anyone from the lesser and greater Antilles to Florida all the way to Atlantic Canada need to keep an eye on this because Karl is going to be under a strong ridge and it will all depend on where the break in the ridge is if there is one

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[floridasun78]

Id say anyone from the lesser and greater Antilles to Florida all the way to Atlantic Canada need to keep an eye on this because Karl is going to be under a strong ridge and it will all depend on where the break in the ridge is if there is one

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

that key to track will high build to north or weakness happen allow go north islands east Bahamas out near Bermuda islands

[floridasun78]

anyone on islands letus know what weather office say ts karl as next week let closer

[Andrew92]

While 1998 has been a decent analog to this point, I also agree this is unlikely to pull a Georges. However, 1985 is still an at least somewhat better analog so far for 2016 in my opinion. Gloria was getting going very close to this date, though I think still a bit further south. She struggled for several days too until getting further west.

Looking at these models, plus the likely westward to west-northwest track through five days, I am a bit concerned this could be similar to Gloria in a lot of ways if conditions are just right. Here is hoping it also recurves, but does so further east, away from land.

EDIT: I also just perused in the FTP server at the NHC and happened on what appeared to be forecasts, both from models and from the NHC in advisories, on Gloria. I don't know much about what model forecasts were like in 1985, but to my untrained eye it appears some of them called for a rather quick recurve of Gloria out to sea initially as well.

-Andrew92

[fci]

It is rare that any wave off Africa would make it all the way across the basin and esp get in the gulf mid to late September. Usually this time of the year troughs start coming down and recurves it.

Hugo and Jeanne are two big examples of TWs and becoming hurricanes making across the basin this time of year and hitting land. Hope this doesn't repeat those monsters.

They also started out WAY south of 17.0.

[LarryWx]

i have question if because is ts that not forecast until Mon will take more north because stronger?

Hey FL,
That's often the case and would guess yes for Karl, especially with the BAMS being so far south, though I really don't know for sure.

[Hammy]

This may be the first run where the GFS actually does something with it beyond 5-6 days.