ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Shear seems to have died down in most of the MDR.

[Hurricaneman]

There is still shear, the MLC is NE of the LLC but if they join at any time this could take off especially with the energy associated with this so I believe the GFS may be dead wrong with this but we won't know until early next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Nimbus]

The current BAMD has the furthest north track so maybe early development will shift the dynamic models further north. 18Z HWRF still has this running south of west along the 18N line.

[JaxGator]

Shear seems to have died down in most of the MDR.

Whoa and a majority of the Atlanic has favorable condtions. Shear can decrease as fast as it can increase. Impressive blow up near the center.

[GCANE]

Nice looking hot tower about 3.5 hrs ago.

[wxmann_91]

I'm still not seeing a recurve. It's too far out to say where this is going.

I'm saying this with all due respect, but...

If you told me that a TD formed from an African wave at the latitude and longitude of the Cape Verde Islands in mid-Sept, without looking at a single piece of model guidance, I could guess that it was going to recurve and be right ~95% of the time.

[GCANE]

[AutoPenalti]

Well, well, well, good ol' shear decides to take a break for once in the MDR.

[cycloneye]

Hello KARL?

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

[TheStormExpert]

00z Best Track:

TS @ 11pm?

Tropical Storm TWELVE
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 16, 2016:

Location: 17.8°N 31.9°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 45 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

80 NM 140 NM
0 NM 80 NM

[Hurricaneman]

00z Best Track:

TS @ 11pm?

Tropical Storm TWELVE
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 16, 2016:

Location: 17.8°N 31.9°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 45 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

80 NM 140 NM
0 NM 80 NM

probably, but its still sheared, kind of like Ian but seems like its trying to stack

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Fego]

We will see what the NHC says in the 11pm bulletin.

[blazess556]

Latest ASCAT caught part of the storm.

[abajan]

Hello KARL?

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

If true, that's 50 mph and wasn't expected to happen for another 5 days!

[Hurricaneman]

Hello KARL?

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

If true, that's 50 mph and wasn't expected to happen for another 5 days!

based on that the Euro seems to be closer to reality than the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[cycloneye]

In fact,Best Track was adjusted on 18z to TS.

AL, 12, 2016091518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 308W, 35, 1007, TS
AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

[blazess556]

Southwesterly shear is still quite strong currently, but 00z ships shows a rather favorable upper-level environment starting tomorrow evening.

[Cunxi Huang]

Hello KARL?

AL, 12, 2016091600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS

If true, that's 50 mph and wasn't expected to happen for another 5 days!

Seems like ATL is so easy to have a named tc I'm just saying, not being offensive lol

Sent from my MX4 using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

Global models look to be in pretty good agreement on 500mb ridge building over the Eastern United States and Western Atlantic in a week's time. The fact they show this pattern with an incoming cyclone from the east is a bit concerning. The ridge might break down by hours 200+ allowing a recurve but certainly not set in stone at this point. That is so far out in the model runs and the errors are large that far out.

[floridasun78]

it look low west of those storms area so likely is shear ts Kate i see next name larry that one going name after larry storm2k