ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

My favorite track of a storm that started out in the MDR at a high latitude was Ike in 2008. It formed around 17N, 42W, and still managed to go S of FL and hit Texas. Total long shot track.

[blp]

My favorite track of a storm that started out in the MDR at a high latitude was Ike in 2008. It formed around 17N, 42W, and still managed to go S of FL and hit Texas. Total long shot track.

Yes sir I remember thinking no way it takes that track. Funny how the GFDL was first to sniff it out. People forget the GFDL was best back in the day. Even showed Katrina making a SW movement before first landfall in Miami.

[abajan]

Another area that will be OTS

That would usually be the best bet as I assume you and most others here realize whenever a CV system, especially one that has already formed into a TC, is not moving WSW, westward or just north of due west in the eastern Atlantic at least as regards getting as far west as 75W. Moving WNW initially in the E Atlantic as a TC for a day or more knocks down chances quite a bit vs if it were moving westward and even more vs if it were moving south of due west. Whereas moving WNW is not a guarantee of recurving safely, moving NW initially just about is.
Always keep in mind that about 80% of all CV TC's don't make it to 75W and that number is higher now vs what it is in August. Also, it is higher than 80% if one just looks at CV TC's that are moving steadily WNW from the get-go.

Seems the models are trending towards a due W or even south of due west movement after about 72 hours or so and this motion continues for a several days as it traverses the MDR. It's a longshot for this to impact the CONUS but there is definite uncertainty looking at the model runs today especially the long-range Euro. Still need to watch the Northern Lesser Antilles as usual in case it gets pushed far enough west. Perhaps the bigger question is whether this will even develop in the first place though I tend to think so given the good appearance on SAT imagery.

Hopefully, for the sake of the Leeward Islands, it doesn't pull a Luis type track, with that westward bend:



(Although, Luis did start at a lower latitude. And thankfully, it's not currently expected to be anywhere near as powerful.)

[Kazmit]

Raised to 40%/60% for 8pm. Still has it at 50% for five days for some reason.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-60%

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[AutoPenalti]

SAL not an issue in the near term for 95L.

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

Not sure where NHC is getting WNW movement over 5 days looking at the model guidance. Looks WNW for the first couple of days and then a bend west or even WSW. Perhaps NHC wants to see some more model runs to see if this W or WSW movement is still showing up in the models.

[Hurricaneman]

Another couple of possible analogs might be

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atla ... _track.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... _track.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atla ... _track.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atla ... _track.png

so IMO this may need to be watched after this week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

If you live in the lesser Antilles you may have to watch this one as it seems the models are pointing that way

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atla ... _track.png

[GeneratorPower]

Not sure where NHC is getting WNW movement over 5 days looking at the model guidance. Looks WNW for the first couple of days and then a bend west or even WSW. Perhaps NHC wants to see some more model runs to see if this W or WSW movement is still showing up in the models.

Probably overthinking the NHC here. The quality of the outlooks has been lacking. I don't think we are going to get advisory-quality analysis in the 5 Day Outlook. The GFS ensembles are almost unanimously west with a south-of-west tick at the end of day 5. The NHC stating a direction in the outlook is probably very general.

[BigB0882]

Sure looks like the Euro is bending this back west at the end of its run and a potent ridge is building off the East coast. If it doesn't escape out to sea before that then it would have to head due West for a while and possible even get pushed south of west. I suppose the big question, besides how accurate this even is, is whether that ridge will stay in place or get eroded quickly.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has landfall between 348 and 360 on OBX and New England landfall between 360 and 372 while its in super long range take it with a grain of salt

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[AJC3]

Not sure where NHC is getting WNW movement over 5 days looking at the model guidance. Looks WNW for the first couple of days and then a bend west or even WSW. Perhaps NHC wants to see some more model runs to see if this W or WSW movement is still showing up in the models.

Probably overthinking the NHC here. The quality of the outlooks has been lacking. I don't think we are going to get advisory-quality analysis in the 5 Day Outlook. The GFS ensembles are almost unanimously west with a south-of-west tick at the end of day 5. The NHC stating a direction in the outlook is probably very general.

Exactly this. While it is easy for folks to qualitatively think of the hatched area the same way one would view the NHC "cone of uncertainty", peeps really shouldn't over-analyze this as a de facto "pre-cone" or forecast movement, since the precision/accuracy of TC genesis locations is even more uncertain. Caveat emptor.

[jlauderdal]

Not sure where NHC is getting WNW movement over 5 days looking at the model guidance. Looks WNW for the first couple of days and then a bend west or even WSW. Perhaps NHC wants to see some more model runs to see if this W or WSW movement is still showing up in the models.

Probably overthinking the NHC here. The quality of the outlooks has been lacking. I don't think we are going to get advisory-quality analysis in the 5 Day Outlook. The GFS ensembles are almost unanimously west with a south-of-west tick at the end of day 5. The NHC stating a direction in the outlook is probably very general.

Exactly this. While it is easy for folks to qualitatively think of the hatched area the same way one would view the NHC "cone of uncertainty", peeps really shouldn't over-analyze this as a de facto "pre-cone" or forecast movement, since the precision/accuracy of TC genesis locations is even more uncertain. Caveat emptor.

it looked like a very typical outlook write up and graphic...really nothing new here..meanwhile we have that monster in the pacific...no development issues with that one

[Kazmit]

A few analogs...
It's quite likely that it could go on a path similar to Luis, but probably more north.


Igor is also a possible analog with a bit of that WSW bend before recurving.


Let's hope if future Karl goes on either one of these paths, he isn't as destructive as Luis and Igor were.

[Kazmit]

The real question is if this plows through the Leewards and then through the rest of the Greater Antilles, or if it curves out to sea.

[abajan]

2-Day Formation Chance Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: ...

1. An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface observations and
satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low has become
better defined during the past several hours, but the associated
shower activity remains disorganized. Slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent ...

Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N22W. The low center is
along a tropical wave that is between 20W and 22W from 20N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong from 14N to 17N between 23W and 25W, in parts of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

[Kazmit]

00z GEFS shows a weak storm, but one that starts to head north before hitting the Leewards.

[GCANE]

WINDSAT about 2 hrs 40 min ago