ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Sep 2016 02:09 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, located just inland over northeastern Florida, at 11 PM EDT.

Edited post by cycloneye

[JPmia]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

South FL Water Mgmgt page showing both 93L and Storm 11.. i really don't get the hesitation from calling this a tropical depression today.. the old saying if it looks like a duck and quack likes one and you have ship and land data to back it up.. then call it what it is.

[centuryv58]

I think this is # 10 for named storms? Maybe 15 isn't so unreachable (per Larry Cosgrove).

[northjaxpro]

Center is now over Nocatee just south of the Duval-St. Johns county line. Rainbands with possible TS conditions are spreading north into Duval. Vilano Beach got hit by heavy rain and wind earlier and got the brunt of it.

I am getting blasted here at my locale on the north side of Jax metro.heavy squLls and windgusting to 40 mph currently. WJXT TV-4 met John Gaughn just anounced announced Julia has been born by NHC

[NDG]

Mayport NAS:


Conditions at: KNRB observed 14 September 2016 01:52 UTC
Temperature: 23.9°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 22.8°C (73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1013.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (70 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 15.1 m/s)
gusting to 48 MPH (42 knots; 21.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.25 miles (2.01 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3300 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

[JaxGator]

Center is now over Nocatee just south of the Duval-St. Johns county line. Rainbands with possible TS conditions are spreading north into Duval. Vilano Beach got hit by heavy rain and wind earlier and got the brunt of it.

I am getting blasted here at my localeon the north sude of Jax metro.heavy squLls and windgusting to 40 mph currently. WJXT TV-4 met John Gaughn just anoun c ed that Julia has been born.

Wow, that's sounds bad. Be safe and yep, watching him now. It's been amazing tracking this today. It's calm where I am in Fruit Cove but we got a squall earlier that was part of the center but not as bad as what you are getting right now. We should have the worst of Julia now with Georgia being next to face her.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

NHC revised the Best Track to push designation back to 6z this morning, which is much more reasonable.

So is this officially in the database as a tropical storm at this point?

AL, 93, 2016091306, , BEST, 0, 273N, 802W, 30, 1012, TD,
AL, 93, 2016091312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 808W, 35, 1010, TS,
AL, 93, 2016091318, , BEST, 0, 290N, 813W, 35, 1010, TS,
AL, 93, 2016091400, , BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS,

[northjaxpro]

I am still in the northern edge of the circulayion center. Pressure reading I have is 1009.3 mb. Heavy rsin and wind gusting to 42 mph a few moments ago. Center is moving through my locale right now.

[drezee]

Great job NHC! You got it right. Warn the public...there have already been tornado warnings too. We have a tropical cyclone..

[CrazyC83]

NHC revised the Best Track to push designation back to 6z this morning, which is much more reasonable.

So is this officially in the database as a tropical storm at this point?

AL, 93, 2016091306, , BEST, 0, 273N, 802W, 30, 1012, TD,
AL, 93, 2016091312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 808W, 35, 1010, TS,
AL, 93, 2016091318, , BEST, 0, 290N, 813W, 35, 1010, TS,
AL, 93, 2016091400, , BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS,

Interesting they called it a tropical cyclone since early this morning.

[northjaxpro]

What a night it has been here. Literally a tropical storm has formed literally right pver my home when it was fi ally named as it was moving through my locale. Amazing. That is a first for me for sure lol..

[CrazyC83]

I am still in the northern edge of the circulayion center. Pressure reading I have is 1009.3 mb. Heavy rsin and wind gusting to 42 mph a few moments ago. Center is moving through my locale right now.

I'd tweet it to your local NWS office since it is lower than the intensity estimate. That would support about 1007 or so.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...
...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach,
Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach to Altahama Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case, tropical
storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.6 West. Julia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a reduction in forward
speed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Little change
in strength is expected tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. Recent
observations indicate that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are
occurring along the northeast coast of Florida from Ponte Vedra
northward to the mouth of the St. Johns River.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the
tropical storm warning area.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near
the northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coastlines
through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further
compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and
stream discharges.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible tonight
through Wednesday morning across parts of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin


TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with
the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right
of much of the objective track guidance. That trend is forecast to
continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to
the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the
HWRF. With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly
shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change
in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and
begins to weaken. Nevertheless, a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along
the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains
could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data
during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the
curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a
result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on
Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across
northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 30.3N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin

[JaxGator]

What a night it has been here. Literally a tropical storm has formed literally right pver my home when it was fi ally named as it was moving through my locale. Amazing. That is a first for me for sure lol..

Same here northjaxpro (and our Jax posters). Quite a night for sure.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...
...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[gatorcane]

So two tropical storms and one hurricane for Florida already this season with a lot of the season left

[Hurricane Andrew]

This formed over land...pretty strange, although it may have been developing as it came ashore.

don't see this every day,

[Hammy]

So two tropical storms and one hurricane for Florida already this season with a lot of the season left

That would, interestingly, make this the most active year for Florida post-2005. And some people said it would be slow.

[northjaxpro]

So two tropical storms and one hurricane for Florida already this season with a lot of the season left

Yes indeed. All of them have impacted my area too.

The northern edge of Julia still over my locale. Wind gusted to 41mph. Over4 inches now has fallen here.

[SeGaBob]

I think I'm too far inland to get any meaningful rain from this one.