ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

This is the best season (tracking wise) in a very long time ! It seems like forever since we've had such unpredictability.

Tell me about it. This will catch some people off guard but we and the pros are on it. It's closer to Jax than I thought (with TS winds).

[Aric Dunn]

funny its also going to go straight to TS.. lol trends continue with the llc and vorticity clearly moving offshore... 5pm could have a new TS too funny

[Hammy]

funny its also going to go straight to TS.. lol trends continue with the llc and vorticity clearly moving offshore... 5pm could have a new TS too funny

Somebody mentioned Jerry 1995 as a comparison, funny this would also be J.

[Aric Dunn]

TS Tammy




VS. TS Jerry original forecast for 93L was very similar to track jerry took.. now its more like Tammy. mix between them.

[Steve]

This is the best season (tracking wise) in a very long time ! It seems like forever since we've had such unpredictability.

Tell me about it. This will catch some people off guard but we and the pros are on it. It's closer to Jax than I thought (with TS winds).

Agreed. It's the subtropics in September. Almost anything is possible, and things happen quickly sometimes. I'm not going to be surprised if ex-92L spins up something over the weekend as well (even if weak and unclassified). It's that time of year, and it doesn't always take much to get a TD or named system going.

[OntarioEggplant]

Does anyone else feel like with at least 93L, and one can argue 92L as well, that the NHC is dropping the ball on observations of these invests with respect to recon?

[Aric Dunn]

strong tornado signature in southern brevard county and its growing.

[gatorcane]

Yet another "homebrew" system this season that had it had more time over water could have been significant. The other one that comes to mind is the Gulf low last month that should have been a hurricane if not a major but it stayed just inland along the northern Gulf coast.

[NDG]

Got to love surprising home development.
Feeder band south of Orlando:

[Evil Jeremy]

This is hilariously quick escalation. I'm all ears now.

[JaxGator]

strong tornado signature in southern brevard county and its growing.

Tornado warning just issued.

[Fishing]

Does anyone else feel like with at least 93L, and one can argue 92L as well, that the NHC is dropping the ball on observations of these invests with respect to recon?

No not at all.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think, as many people thought, disturbances are struggling, and moving further westward, getting closer to land areas. When they finally do pop, it's really close to land, after days of struggling... which is a hard thing to predict.

[LarryWx]

Exactly one week ago, abajan got the board's attention when he posted this visible loop at the time it was an impressive low level swirl near 13N, 45W as pouch 32L:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284#p2537273

I really think it may have had a LLC all of the way back to at least then.

[Steve]

Hey segaBob,

Looks like CMC 12Z keeps it around you guys for about 7 days or so and then Ivan's it back south and across Florida into the Gulf. That suggests to me that the weather pattern is too complicated for it to figure out what happens to the low. Eventually ridging will set back up in the SW Atlantic per Super Typhoon Meranti's impacts to China. So if it's around in a week, you could see it sinking back Southward or a piece of it if the top shears off.

Caveat: I'm not buying the Canadian, it's just a model, and Bob had asked if there was a way up and out.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=216

[SeaBrz_FL]

Raining like hell here all day in Cape Canaveral, but winds have really picked up over past 90 minutes.

Per Tom Terry (WFTV) minutes ago -- publicly confirmed tornado reported in Barefoot Bay, 40% chance of low developing to TS, 55 mph winds recorded east of Daytona.

[JaxGator]

The wind has picked up a little bit from 2 hours ago when it was almost still. Also the pressure is now 1014mb and falling. A 4 mb drop.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing where any 34kt winds were reported by a coastal buoy. I see the buoy east of the cape reported 25 kts max. Where is the evidence of TS winds? Radar won't count, as unless the radar is at Daytona Beach it's looking well above the surface (2000-7000ft at 50nm from Melbourne Radar).

[LarryWx]

Very heavy thunderstorm has just come off the ocean here in SAV from a band of showers and tstorms.

[JaxGator]

I'm not seeing where any 34kt winds were reported by a coastal buoy. I see the buoy east of the cape reported 25 kts max. Where is the evidence of TS winds? Radar won't count, as unless the radar is at Daytona Beach it's looking well above the surface (2000-7000ft at 50nm from Melbourne Radar).

Well, the NHC says there's TS winds in the convection off shore but if it's not a TS, then TD most likely.