ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Did they just take down the floaters for 93L?

[rickybobby]

Did they just take down the floaters for 93L?

Sure looks like it.

[gatorcane]

You can follow it here using floater 2:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[LarryWx]

Much appreciated, gator!

[sunnyday]

What portions of Fl are likely to get heavy rains?

[LarryWx]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 131500.gif

This loop suggests to me a LLC near 23.5N, 74W, moving pretty steadily WNW. What I don't yet see is organization of the convection and much convection near the center as I see just some mainly just south of the presumed center. This one is running out of time to take further advantage of the low shear conditions (see the strong northerly upper winds just east of FL) though models suggest another 18 hours or so of favorable shear.

[LarryWx]

What portions of Fl are likely to get heavy rains?

I won't say likely but will say potential for much of the east coast, especially areas north of where the center of vorticity comes ashore.

[ronjon]

Looks to be much more impressive today. There's turning evident on VIS SAT. Maybe vorticity maxima European model so keen on. Shear for the time being looks light. Let's see what happens next 24 hours or so.

[tpr1967]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical%2Ftropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&ending_image=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2_20160911184500.gif&starting_image=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2_20160911131500.gif

This loop suggests to me a LLC near 23.5N, 74W, moving pretty steadily WNW. What I don't yet see is organization of the convection and much convection near the center as I see just some mainly just south of the presumed center. This one is running out of time to take further advantage of the low shear conditions (see the strong northerly upper winds just east of FL) though models suggest another 18 hours or so of favorable shear.

I see this being more a MLC from height 700mb-500mb over a wave axis along 74-west.

[cycloneye]

Invest has been deactivated but thresad will remain until Monday to allow more discussions before it goes to the archieves.

[floridasun78]

Invest has been deactivated but thresad will remain until Monday to allow more discussions before it goes to the archieves.

why when look better today?

[AutoPenalti]

Invest has been deactivated but thresad will remain until Monday to allow more discussions before it goes to the archieves.

why when look better today?

More likely a brief convective burst. Dry air in the area will keep this in check.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
disturbance near the central and southeastern Bahamas. Surface
pressures remain high in the area, and there are still no signs of
a closed surface circulation. Conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this disturbance while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of the Bahamas tonight and on Monday, and
these rains are likely to spread over portions of the Florida
peninsula by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[LarryWx]

That's pretty amazing poofage this evening under seemingly favorable shear and very warm SST's by ex-93L once 93-L was de-Invested! I wonder if it was due to dry air. I saw two enormous curved outlfow boundaries since last night, which are supposedly signs of dry air

[Ntxw]

Just an area of disturbed weather this morning. It is being blasted by 30kts+ of wind shear. Likely some convection enhancement from it but then quickly being blown off to the east

[Frank P]

Just an area of disturbed weather this morning. It is being blasted by 30kts+ of wind shear. Likely some convection enhancement from it but the quickly being blown off to the east

Wonder where 92L topic went, it's much more impressive this morning than 93L.. looks like it still has a pretty decent LLC... with convection trying to fire up all around it... not sure of the shear status in the area, but at least it appears some of the convection is not getting sheared off totally like in the past... maybe I'm just still beating that dead horse...

[Ntxw]

Just an area of disturbed weather this morning. It is being blasted by 30kts+ of wind shear. Likely some convection enhancement from it but the quickly being blown off to the east

Wonder where 92L topic went, it's much more impressive this morning than 93L.. looks like it still has a pretty decent LLC... with convection trying to fire up all around it... not sure of the shear status in the area, but at least it appears some of the convection is not getting sheared off totally like in the past... maybe I'm just still beating that dead horse...

The gulf, Bahamas, Carib, and open atlantic is experiencing high wind shear at the moment. The invests or ex invests have had their convection blown off for the most part and won't likely develop unless it dies down. 94L (the best looking one) last night had strong convection above the circulation but has since been decapitated this morning by heavy shear.

[Frank P]

wow, that just doesn't look normal for this time in September... unbelievable but at the same time folks along the coast are probably pretty lucky its like that... thanks for the shear map... explains everything as far as why storms just can't develop..

[LarryWx]

Yes, today there's strong shear affecting 93L, which was well forecasted. However, as several of us posted, shear for 93L yesterday and Saturday was light and it still didn't develop. I'm suspecting dry air because I don't know what else it could have been. There were two long, strong outflow boundaries over the weekend, which added to my suspicion about dry air as mentioned over the weekend.
I think it should be pointed out for learning purposes that the CMC had 93L in its current position along with forecasted strong shear where it is now. Yet, it still was strengthening 93L on several runs despite its own forecasted shear. It is almost as if the CMC ignores strong shear as being unfavorable for tropical development/strengthening. Perhaps it is that more than anything else that causes it to have so many false geneses and cases of overstrengthening.

[Ntxw]

Larry, for the past couple of days the Atlantic has been under areas of subsidence. This coupled with your dry air is likely the culprit. The two are intertwined. Sinking air is not likely to maintain strong convection on a consistent basis, shear finally did them at the end.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml