ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Two vorts showing up on COD.
One over the LLC and a stronger one to the west imbedded in the convection.
One over the LLC and a stronger one to the west imbedded in the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:The ULL over the west GOM is weakening pretty dramatically and the ULL running thru the Bahamas looks like its beginning to erode as well.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html
Yes. Weakening ULL's. WSW move might bring system toward N fringe of Bay of Campeche. Can't rule out possible development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Looking at some of the low level flow. It appears to be being pulled by the large convective burst over the flat western side of cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
stormreader wrote:GCANE wrote:The ULL over the west GOM is weakening pretty dramatically and the ULL running thru the Bahamas looks like its beginning to erode as well.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html
Yes. Weakening ULL's. WSW move might bring system toward N fringe of Bay of Campeche. Can't rule out possible development.
Last couple frames looks like its turning almost straight south.
Big change in shear as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
low level cloud deck starting to thicken some especially on west side closer to the convection and some near the center. may see some more convection soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:low level cloud deck starting to thicken some especially on west side closer to the convection and some near the center. may see some more convection soon.
Plenty of unstable air for it to fire off in.
That shift to the SW gets it headed to a 3500 CAPE ridge
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Weird movement....are steering currents set to push this all the way to Mexico?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
3. A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Bailey1777 wrote:Weird movement....are steering currents set to push this all the way to Mexico?
Wouldn't say "all the way to Mexico". But motion could bring it farther south than those due west models had it. Might pass not far north of Yucatan. Also looks to be a slow mover. Only a little model support, but that could change with a slow moving system in the south central GOM in mid Sept.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
radar is interesting and satellite showing a large amount of "popcorn" convection building all over the place especially the southern portion as well as around the center.. looks like we will see some deep convection shortly..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
A lot of mid-level moisture is flowing into the LLC now from the convection firing off to its west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Obvioulsy, this will enhance convection around the LLC; but will also reduce the PV anomoly over it and allow it's vort to expanded vertically which spins it up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Obvioulsy, this will enhance convection around the LLC; but will also reduce the PV anomoly over it and allow it's vort to expanded vertically which spins it up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
92L has a well defined surface circulation (per visible). I'm noticing the dry slot is filling in and moistening nicely (per water vapor ). The two ULL's on either side of the invest appear to be weakening as well? Check out the possible wrap around and possible formation of a vigorous cyclonic envelope on Mimic http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
This is pretty wild to have a naked swirl that won't develop in the Gulf of Mexico at the peak of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Agua wrote:This is pretty wild to have a naked swirl that won't develop in the Gulf of Mexico at the peak of the season.
Lesser resolution NAMs spin the low up more in a few days but put an arc of stretched out moisture along the NC Gulf. 4km spins a 1007/8 low in the middle of the Gulf. CMC keeps a weak low moving west toward S TX. Global also hits S TX. GFS is nada.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Down to 0% / 0%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
... A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico continues to remain devoid of thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are not favorable, and development of this system
is not expected. The low is forecast to weaken while it moves
westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf
of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
... A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico continues to remain devoid of thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are not favorable, and development of this system
is not expected. The low is forecast to weaken while it moves
westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf
of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
That was a big, unexpected increase in shear.
Looking at GFS 350K PV forecast, mid GOM has about 24 hrs for something to develop.
After that, according to this run, it looks like the whole Atlantic will be shut down for at least a week.
http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... 350PV.anim
Will monitor future runs to see if something changes.
Looking at GFS 350K PV forecast, mid GOM has about 24 hrs for something to develop.
After that, according to this run, it looks like the whole Atlantic will be shut down for at least a week.
http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... 350PV.anim
Will monitor future runs to see if something changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Coming up to DMAX and getting a cold-topped flare up.
Still looks like substantial shear.
Last I can see, its feeding off 3500 CAPE air but Theta-E is relatively low at around 350.
Doesn't look too promising unless a real big hot tower can fire off for a long time.
Still looks like substantial shear.
Last I can see, its feeding off 3500 CAPE air but Theta-E is relatively low at around 350.
Doesn't look too promising unless a real big hot tower can fire off for a long time.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
A few showers and thunderstorms have re-formed near a weak area of
low pressure located over southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However,
upper-level winds will not be conducive for development of this
system while it moves generally westward across the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
low pressure located over southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However,
upper-level winds will not be conducive for development of this
system while it moves generally westward across the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
wouldn't fully count the little guy out yet.
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