ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

On the CIMSS maps this shows up at both mid level and low level now. 3hrs ago it had no 850 signature. It is certainly trying to stack up if it is allowed to get going.

[AutoPenalti]

Where's the guy who has arthritis when a storm is going to hit central Florida? Tony from wesh 2 said we shouldn't worry about this because it will not form.

Well, he's basing his opinion from the NHC so I'm not really surprised. Regardless, we should still monitor it because of the favorable environment it's about to encounter, or is already encountering.

[Steve]

Agreed. If nothing else, it's a deep surge sure to bring some rough marine weather and probably some higher rain totals in Florida.

[Alyono]

where are we getting that environmental conditions will be favorable?

Looks like this will move WEST of the upper high and encounter a narrow upper trough, with strong northerly wind shear. I agree with NHC that environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable

[Steve]

It's juicing up. If the pattern reverses in the Bahamas, I think that's where you would look to see if conditions were better. It will evolve over the next 48-60 hours, but I'd be leery if I lived in eastern FL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[LarryWx]

where are we getting that environmental conditions will be favorable?

Looks like this will move WEST of the upper high and encounter a narrow upper trough, with strong northerly wind shear. I agree with NHC that environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable

Favorable over the next 36 hours while to the SW of the upper high.

[floridasun78]

ok if some of you see favorable area for 93l why have nhc not say it only have it 10%

[LarryWx]

ok if some of you see favorable area for 93l why have nhc not say it only have it 10%

Maybe because GFS says no TC.

[floridasun78]

ok if some of you see favorable area for 93l why have nhc not say it only have it 10%

Maybe because GFS says no TC.

so nhc only go by gfs

[floridasun78]

i bet 8pm say 10% and Sunday 2am and 8am

[LarryWx]

ok if some of you see favorable area for 93l why have nhc not say it only have it 10%

Maybe because GFS says no TC.

so nhc only go by gfs

No. Also, all non-CMC mods have no TC now.

[LarryWx]

i bet 8pm say 10% and Sunday 2am and 8am

I also expect they'll go with 10% at 8 PM. Later times depend on if it looks more organized.

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[LarryWx]

Ok, we got the expected 10%. Now, it is almost do or die time imo. If it doesn't get more organized by about midday tomorrow, I'm likely going to lower my % from 30% as the most favorable conditions should be here now and we're going to start running out of time before going inland.

[floridasun78]

i see this only as weak tropical wave coming by florida having rainy day i say nhc say 0% by sunday this good news because 94l going fish storm so let what other invest we have next few week

[LarryWx]

i see this only as weak tropical wave coming by florida having rainy day i say nhc say 0% by sunday this good news because 94l going fish storm so let what other invest we have next few week

Yeah, FL, it doesn't look impressive right now, which is good news for you guys right now. I hope for your sake you get good much needed rains and no TC from this. The NHC might go down to 0% and de-Invest this on Sunday. I do wonder if dry air is hampering it based on the late afternoon outflow boundary I mentioned. I don't think it is high shear. Regardless, I'd still prefer to at least see what happens overnight while it is out from the influence of that upper low to its south that was causing convection to be stretched yesterday.

I agree about 94L being a fish.

[tolakram]

saved loop. I think it exploded.

[LarryWx]

^Note the outflow boundary that moved SE from the mass of thunderstorms. I read that that is an indicator of dry air.

[AutoPenalti]

saved loop. I think it exploded.

Yeah, it exploded into a poof.

[floridasun78]

look going poof likely we hear last about 93l at 2am i think it try but could not become td when was east leewards on thur