ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[LarryWx]

It's now down to 0% for both the 2-day and 5-day outlooks! Wow.

I'd go with 5% for 5 day.

[Gustywind]

By the way, for you my friends here is a final recap related to 92L's passage in Guadeloupe. Very juicy amounts of rainfall have been reported , strong gustywinds, rough seas during the last two days What an episode! If this thing were to stall 3 mores hours the situation will begin to be a bit worrying for sure in terms of floodings and muslides . Very beneficialains for us and fort the others Leewardians as Antigua well showered. Hope all the islanders are safe and dry
Right now back to green code since this morning as the sun shines and things seems return to normal


http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Page 1

Monitoring Weather Forecast #

11

for Guadeloupe

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 5:59AM or 959 UTC

Episode No.

10

-GD

Event ended

Vigilance level: back to GREEN

Current situation :

The last clouds associated with the tropical wave No. 30 finished to be evacuating Guadeloupe this
morning, giving only a few residual and weak showers. Dry and hazy weather is expected during the day.

Observed data during the episode:

Total rainfall recorded over the duration of the episode, is since Sunday morning (48 hours):

- 232 mm at la Citerne (St Claude near our Volcano La Soufrière) including 144 mm in 6 hours Monday :eek:

- 163.2 mm in Ste-Rose (Viard) including 105.6 mm in 6 hours Monday.

- 153.5 mm in Ste-Rose (Clugny) including 104.5 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 129.7 mm at St. Claude (Matouba)

- 123.9 mm in Capesterre Belle-Eau (Bois Debout) with 75.4 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 91.7 mm at Terre-de-Haut

- 71.5 mm Raizet.

The wettest areas during this episode:

- Trois-Rivières with totals estimated at more than 150 mm in 6 hours (radar estimated)

- Petit-Bourg, Lamentin and St Rose with accumulations estimated between 100 and 150 mm in 6 hours.

Moreover, wind gusts of 80 to 100 km / h were measured Sunday.

Website Météo France in the Antilles Guiana www.meteofrance.gp

[Blinhart]

Has a system ever formed flowing the opposite way than we are used to seeing? It almost looks like that is happening here, what would they call this system Anti-tropical system?

[cycloneye]

I guess 92L will be deactivated shortly as no new updates from ATCF have occurred since 06z.

[sunnyday]

Wait! It can't be a 0% chance of development! Didn't you see one of the models makes it hit SE Fl? Come to think of it, at least one model usually shows a storm hitting SE Fl, and we all know how often that has happened since 2005!

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested here is a good view of the floodings yesterday in Guadeloupe (source: Local TV at 730 PM called "Guadeloupe Premiere"). Enjoy it.
http://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/guadeloup ... direct-ici

[cycloneye]

92L has been deactivated.Thread will be moved to the archieves forum on Wednesday.

[abajan]

Has a system ever formed flowing the opposite way than we are used to seeing? It almost looks like that is happening here, what would they call this system Anti-tropical system?

They would call it Lenny.

[ConvergenceZone]

92L has been deactivated.Thread will be moved to the archieves forum on Wednesday.

It's about time! Development wise this had nothing going on its favor. Crazy shear in the Gulf wasn't going to help either. Good riddance.

[centuryv58]

Never fear. Looks like 93 L will be ready to follow in a few hours.

[Kazmit]

Poof. No longer on the latest outlook as of 8pm.

[CycloneGuru]

any update on this?

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016


A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 22N69W to 10N71W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery and is at
the southwest side of an upper-level ridge which enhances its
associated convection. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-
20N between 67W-75W affecting Hispaniola and its adjacent waters
at this time.

[SoupBone]

92L has been deactivated.Thread will be moved to the archieves forum on Wednesday.

[tropicwatch]

Here is a video that was taken today in the Dominican Republic of the rain and flooding.

https://youtu.be/uosacovsoQ0

[chaser1]

For those who are interrested here is a good view of the floodings yesterday in Guadeloupe (source: Local TV at 730 PM called "Guadeloupe Premiere"). Enjoy it.
http://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/guadeloup ... direct-ici

Thanks, but all I saw were several commercials, which seemed to lead into the news, saw something about a fire, then some other story came on. I had to stop watching but I'm guessing that news story was within their 1/2 hr. news program

[chaser1]

Here is a video that was taken today in the Dominican Republic of the rain and flooding.

https://youtu.be/uosacovsoQ0

It was amazing how much rain the D.R. received. Then again, their drainage might not be in the best shape either. Conversely, I need to find a moped that'll ride submerged like that - pretty impressive!

[northjaxpro]

There is still a long held premise which I have always held onto when observing tropical systems. Anytime there is considerable energy passing through some of the warmest ssts in the entire North Atlantic basin can never be completely written off until that energy(vorticity) has completely dissipated.

Ex 92L still has I vorticity at 500 and 700 mb levels and a. small anticyclone is still moving in tandum with the system. Shear and dry air are not currently hindering issues at this time. The biggest hindering factior right now with the system.is its interaction with Hispaniola. It is moving right on the northern coast of that island currently. However, considering that the system is still pulsating so to speak indicates a couple.of.things.

Dry air has been analyzed to eventually collapse this entity. However, this wave has been very vigorous on its w-nw trek across the Eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows that the dry air at this time really has not yet debilitated this system. I still feel that with an anticyclone still nearby, if this system can get through the next 24 hours without being severely disrupted by Hispaniola, I am not by any means counting it out. There are obstacles still ahead, in particular possibly being influenced by Eastern Cuba's terrain I as the system heads w-nw.

But, as long as there is still sufficient energy moving w-nw towards the Florida Straits , NEVER, EVER write off a system until it the energy itself is completely dissipated.

So I will be content to remain in the extreme minority, which is fine by me (I am thinking the only one it seems) that thinks that 92L still has something left. Just.my two cents on a very early hump day!

[Orlando]

I don't know if it is this 92L or the one behind it, but one of them is causing me lots of pain. My guess is that this one is still pulling some pressure. It won't surprise me to see it regain strength later.

[terstorm1012]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 92L flare back up after it passes Jamaica.