ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Blinhart]

I said they could declare this a TD soon or it could pull another 99L and not form anything until the GoM.

[txwatcher91]

Pretty strung out looking right now, needs to consolidate more if it's going to have a chance at developing.

[toad strangler]

I said they could declare this a TD soon or it could pull another 99L and not form anything until the GoM.

Increasing shear out in front of 92L and probably a main factor why the GFS and EURO don't do anything with it.

[abajan]

We got a bit of rain and thunder from the cloud mass which I assume is associated with 92L. Just drizzling lightly and overcast now.

[chaser1]

Still very linear east to west looking but I think we might be in store for a ramp up in convection. SST's bump up perhaps 1/2C but it has not slowed down all that much. If this is a threat to develop soon, than I'm guessing at minimum today should bring a significant increase in convective activity. One thing, surface pressures are all around fairly high; not so good for development, but at the base of a large Central Atlantic surface high, the gradient might at least aid low level convergence (thats IF a significant degree of convection can finally pop off)

Anyone notice that big swirl-a-roo back around 17N and 30W? Not only is the ITCZ flaring up quite a bit to its south, but now looks to appear as if its tapping into that rich moisture from it. Wouldn't surprise me if this begins to catch NHC's attention soon.

[chaser1]

We got a bit of rain and thunder from the cloud mass which I assume is associated with 92L. Just drizzling lightly and overcast now.

Abajan, any bit of a sharp wind shift at all?

[LarryWx]

Anyone notice that big swirl-a-roo back around 17N and 30W? Not only is the ITCZ flaring up quite a bit to its south, but now looks to appear as if its tapping into that rich moisture from it. Wouldn't surprise me if this begins to catch NHC's attention soon.

Model consensus has this moving NW.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do we have a closed circulation? I forgot the ASCAT link...

[abajan]

We got a bit of rain and thunder from the cloud mass which I assume is associated with 92L. Just drizzling lightly and overcast now.

Abajan, any bit of a sharp wind shift at all?

No, I haven't noticed any wind shifts but the official forecast from our met office for this afternoon and tonight is as follows:

Overcast with moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain, scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Wind: NE - ESE at 15 to 35 km/h. with higher gusts near thunderstorms.

Seas: Moderate in open water with swells from to 2.0m to 2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion treat this as a threat considering what Hermine just did...



Disclaimer: Opinion of an internet amateur. Use official sources for serious weather information.

[abajan]

Judging from the satellite loops, I think the weather being forecast for Barbados is more likely to occur in the islands to its northwest, especially the Leewards. Be ready, Gustywind!

[StormHunter72]

KEEP it AWAY FROM FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bailey1777]

Any t numbers on this one yet?

[Javlin]

Any t numbers on this one yet?

Looks like not yet http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Javlin]

Here's a setup we saw with Gaston looks like a TUTT about to be cut into an ULL moving to the SW of the wave could it help?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[CFLHurricane]

KEEP it AWAY FROM FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!

However, East Central Florida welcomes 92L

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO has no change.

A tropical wave located about 450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. This disturbance is
expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[GCANE]

This may be more than just shear-induced convection.

Cloud tops getting colder and a 1C warm core.

[JtSmarts]

It looks like a centipede lol.

[floridasun78]

This may be more than just shear-induced convection.

Cloud tops getting colder and a 1C warm core.

what you mean?