ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php ... uncertain/

Wrote this blog post this evening. Trying to keep all the possibilities on the table.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php/2016/09/02/hermine-major-coastal-threat-inland-uncertain/

Wrote this blog post this evening. Trying to keep all the possibilities on the table.

You might want to change key point 2 to reflect north eastern beaches, not any east coast beach. This storm is clearing out quickly for SE NC and SC beaches.

[Alyono]

Let's not overreact. There is a long time before the storm gets up to the Jersey Shore, and I can tell you from being in it right now, with the center being just to our SW, the storm is petering out. I live just south of Wilmington NC, and the heavy rain just passed us, there is a nice light breeze, and the radar looks pretty clear for the rest of the night. I seriously doubt this is a tropical storm now. We aren't even getting depression conditions.

The storm is NOT petering out. It will reintensify, likely to hurricane force.

Not going to be a Sandy, but it will have the impact of a major Nor'Easter

I'm giving you an on the ground observation right now from Southport NC, and this storm is not putting out tropical storm weather in either rain or wind, and i would hazard that it is barely putting out tropical depression weather.

The winds are well east of the center. This is not petering out. It is doing what was expected all along. It is taking on nontropical characteristics. It's a Nor'Easter

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php/2016/09/02/hermine-major-coastal-threat-inland-uncertain/

Wrote this blog post this evening. Trying to keep all the possibilities on the table.

You might want to change key point 2 to reflect north eastern beaches, not any east coast beach. This storm is clearing out quickly for SE NC and SC beaches.

True, although the blog is heavily Northeast-centric (even though I don't live near there, I was invited by a member to post).

[mitchell]

This is going to get ugly here. Our Governor is MIA, no Evacs have been issued and the shore is packed with tourists.

I hear you, but this is not a scenario where the Jersey shore warrants evacuation orders at this time. Delaware is the same way...packed with tourists who expect some rain and wind, but aren't at all expecting evacuation-type conditions, nor do I.

[Happy Pelican]

The storm is NOT petering out. It will reintensify, likely to hurricane force.

Not going to be a Sandy, but it will have the impact of a major Nor'Easter

I'm giving you an on the ground observation right now from Southport NC, and this storm is not putting out tropical storm weather in either rain or wind, and i would hazard that it is barely putting out tropical depression weather.

The winds are well east of the center. This is not petering out. It is doing what was expected all along. It is taking on nontropical characteristics. It's a Nor'Easter

Well, the landscape floods in a thunderstorm, towns are still without dunes and hundreds of home are up on cribbing waiting for new foundations. The recovery here was/is a disaster. Factor in all the tourists and it's a recipe for disaster should we see any major flooding. I'll never be able to forget Sandy so if it seems like I'm jumping the shark, I apologize but with that being said, not a peep from Christie is a little concerning.

[hipshot]

I'm giving you an on the ground observation right now from Southport NC, and this storm is not putting out tropical storm weather in either rain or wind, and i would hazard that it is barely putting out tropical depression weather.

The winds are well east of the center. This is not petering out. It is doing what was expected all along. It is taking on nontropical characteristics. It's a Nor'Easter

Well, the landscape floods in a thunderstorm, towns are still without dunes and hundreds of home are up on cribbing waiting for new foundations. The recovery here was/is a disaster. Factor in all the tourists and it's a recipe for disaster should we see any major flooding. I'll never be able to forget Sandy so if it seems like I'm jumping the shark, I apologize but with that being said, not a peep from Christie is a little concerning.

He is probably too busy stumping for his favorite presidential candidate. Sorry for the off topic post (sort of).

[SeaBrz_FL]

and queue the Beatles ....

"And when the night is cloudy there is still a light that shines on me
Shine until tomorrow, let it be
I wake up to the sound of music, Mother Mary comes to me
Speaking words of wisdom, let it be
Let it be, let it be, let it be, yeah, let it be
There will be an answer, let it be
Let it be, let it be, let it be, yeah, let it be
Whisper words of wisdom, let it be."

Hugs to everyone in Hermine's path.

[NJWxHurricane]

Let's not overreact. There is a long time before the storm gets up to the Jersey Shore, and I can tell you from being in it right now, with the center being just to our SW, the storm is petering out. I live just south of Wilmington NC, and the heavy rain just passed us, there is a nice light breeze, and the radar looks pretty clear for the rest of the night. I seriously doubt this is a tropical storm now. We aren't even getting depression conditions.

The storm is NOT petering out. It will reintensify, likely to hurricane force.

Not going to be a Sandy, but it will have the impact of a major Nor'Easter

I'm giving you an on the ground observation right now from Southport NC, and this storm is not putting out tropical storm weather in either rain or wind, and i would hazard that it is barely putting out tropical depression weather.

Stop...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looking at radar, it looks like to me that Hermine went back out over the ocean between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

[Alyono]

This is going to get ugly here. Our Governor is MIA, no Evacs have been issued and the shore is packed with tourists.

I hear you, but this is not a scenario where the Jersey shore warrants evacuation orders at this time. Delaware is the same way...packed with tourists who expect some rain and wind, but aren't at all expecting evacuation-type conditions, nor do I.

5+ feet of tidal surge with much larger waves on top of the surge soould always get beachfront evacuations

[MaineWeatherNut]

Per Radar it looks like Showers are starting to redevelop around the Center.

[Tommedic]

So far in Rocky Point, NC (Pender County NC) have had 9.77 inches of rain.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

Radar imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of Hermine has become elongated from east-northeast to
west-southwest over the past few hours. This is likely in response
to the tropical cyclone encroaching on a developing frontal
boundary that extends from eastern North Carolina eastward into the
Atlantic. However, buoy reports from the Atlantic southeast of the
center remain in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial intensity
remains 45 kt.

During the forecast period, Hermine is expected to undergo a complex
interaction with a mid- to upper-level baroclinic trough that is
developing over the eastern United States. During the first 36-48
hours, the cyclone is likely to start extratropical transition as it
tries to merge with the frontal boundary. From 48-96 hours, the
dynamical models forecast the upper trough to cut off directly over
the surface cyclone, and as this happens they forecast the surface
cyclone to acquire a structure that resembles a tropical cyclone
with the strongest winds close to the center. This suggests the
possibility that Hermine could regain some tropical cyclone
characteristics even though it would be under the upper-level low.
For all of this complexity, the dynamical guidance forecast Hermine
to strengthen during this evolution regardless of its final
structure, so the new intensity forecast is an update of the
previous forecast. Given the uncertainty in the structure and
evolution, the forecast keeps the cyclone as post-tropical after 24
hours.

The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned
baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should
decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical
models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial
cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level
low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS
shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system
somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track
shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous
track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the
east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the
GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast
than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may
require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still
producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS policy
allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches
and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues
to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS
Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for
Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.

2. There is considerable uncertainty as to how many of the
characteristics of a tropical cyclone Hermine will have while it is
off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States.
Regardless of its structure, Hermine is expected to be a vigorous
storm with a large wind field that will cause wind, storm surge and
surf hazards along the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 34.1N 78.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 36.8N 73.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 04/1200Z 37.8N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0000Z 38.4N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/0000Z 38.5N 73.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 07/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0000Z 40.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

[terstorm1012]

This is going to get ugly here. Our Governor is MIA, no Evacs have been issued and the shore is packed with tourists.

I hear you, but this is not a scenario where the Jersey shore warrants evacuation orders at this time. Delaware is the same way...packed with tourists who expect some rain and wind, but aren't at all expecting evacuation-type conditions, nor do I.

5+ feet of tidal surge with much larger waves on top of the surge soould always get beachfront evacuations

Philly-area mets are really concerned. Jersey and Delaware shores are in the Philly TV market. Salisbury for Delmarva, and I know Dan Satterfield in Salisbury is getting the word out. If no peeps out of officials tomorrow, we'll see them get even louder.

[lilac]

I'm south shore Long Island too. We're keeping an eye on it, but no one's panicking. I'm going to go food shopping tomorrow, make sure my fiance has a can of gas ready for the generator (told my sister to do that too) and fill up my car. There's really not much else we can do. Neither of us are right on the water.

[weathaguyry]

I'm south shore Long Island too. We're keeping an eye on it, but no one's panicking. I'm going to go food shopping tomorrow, make sure my fiance has a can of gas ready for the generator (told my sister to do that too) and fill up my car. There's really not much else we can do. Neither of us are right on the water.

Seems pretty good to me, I am from Island Park (Next town north from Long Beach) in Nassau County, closer to the water, which town are you from, and/or are you north of Sunrise Highway?

[bg1]

Winds really picked up after 8pm in Moncks Corner. Lots of tree debris as I was driving home on SC Highway 6, most of it small. In my hometown I noticed entire branches, though; one completely blocked the road! No structural damage as far as I can tell.

[Happy Pelican]

The storm is NOT petering out. It will reintensify, likely to hurricane force.

Not going to be a Sandy, but it will have the impact of a major Nor'Easter

I'm giving you an on the ground observation right now from Southport NC, and this storm is not putting out tropical storm weather in either rain or wind, and i would hazard that it is barely putting out tropical depression weather.

Stop...

I'm thinking a mass exodus/gridlock tomorrow depending on the Euro. Are you going to evacuate?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I know that the NHC 11pm update says that the wind speed is 50mph, but i have been watching the wind speed maps for the last 2.5 hours, and I haven't seen anything, even offshore, over 37.4.