ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cdavis6287]

Reporting back from Palm Coast/Saint Augustine. Now the rain is pouring! Winds went nuts for a little bit +40mph prob gusts to 60 mph. Just getting to us. Told you I would stay up. Any others?

[cdavis6287]

Outer band are nasty!

[caneman]

One bright spot..got to meet some neighbors down the street that drove into our driveway as the tides were rising. I raised my lot a couple of feet when we built our home 14 years ago so our lot is a little higher than most. Anyway, a man, his girlfriend, and two young teenage girls came out and asked if they could stay...and of course I said yes...they had grabbed some photos and papers from there ground level house which was flooded and were trying to drive out. I'm sure glad they pulled in as I'm certain there car would have floated away and who knows what would've happened.

Glad youre ok Ronjon. We had a wind gust yesterday of 78 at Indian shores. Lost power 3 different times. We're high and dry but there has been lots of flooding on surrounding roads and streets. I believe this area is one of the highest rain total areas since wednesday with around 16 inches from a line from west largo, indian rocks beach to redington.

[Orlando]

Here is a lightning map that I like to use:

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#y=28.4;x ... dl=2;dc=0;

I'm still here, but this storm is starting to get on my nerves. I'm ready to divorce it and get some rest.

We have thunder, lightning and rain. It's moving toward me now. Some squalls now, but not bad. It has been very windy overnight. It was very warm and muggy a few hours ago.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

Hermine made landfall near St. Marks, Florida, around 0530 UTC with
70-kt winds. Since that time radar data and surface observations
indicate that the center has continued to move inland. The radar
presentation has deteriorated, and it is estimated that Hermine
has weakened to tropical storm status with 60-kt winds. Additional
weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves farther inland, but
it could reinvigorate as an extratropical cyclone when it moves
over water and interacts with a baroclinic trough in about 48 hours.

The best estimate of the initial motion 025/12 kt. Hermine is
embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed during the next day
or two. Track models are in very good agreement during this
period. After that time, when Hermine begins to interact with
a baroclinic trough, the cyclone should slow down significantly
and begin to meander. On days 3-5, the track guidance becomes rather
divergent, decreasing confidence in the forecast. The NHC
prediction keeps an extratropical cyclone moving little or drifting
northward a few hundred miles off the northeastern U.S coast during
that time. There is a possibility that the system could regain some
tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, but this remains uncertain as
indicated in the previous NHC forecast.

KEY MESSAGE:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while
still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS
policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and
the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked
for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC
will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 30.8N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 32.5N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 36.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 04/0600Z 37.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 38.5N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[ddad040]

I'm here in Tampa and we were hit by a very strong squall about 2 hours ago. Does anybody think the current feeder band will become an all day training event?

[funster]

I'm here in Tampa and we were hit by a very strong squall about 2 hours ago. Does anybody think the current feeder band will become an all day training event?

The HRRR shows rain training over the Tampa area
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

[NDG]

The feeder band of the tail end is pretty bad, strong winds, heavy rains and lightning woke me up.

[ddad040]

The feeder band of the tail end is pretty bad, strong winds, heavy rains and lightning woke me up.

Same here. in Northwest Hillsborough.

[O Town]

Good to hear people from the west side checking in. Was kind of eerie waking at 5:45 to rain and wind and no I-4. I live a few houses away from the interstate and that's a constant noise and when it's silent it's very noticeable. East and west bound sides closed due to accidents, it's a parking lot. Glad I don't have to use it this am. Everyone be safe out there this morning.

[dizzyfish]

North Pasco County checking in. Lost power at 3:24 this morning and got it back around 6. Waiting for more light to see what the property looks like. House wise I think we are o.k. Hearing of 22" of rain at the Lake Tarpon canal. Wow!

Only 9.3 storm total here.....so far.

[Kazmit]

I hope everyone's okay down there, this storm is worrying me. The latest NHC track basically shows Hermine ramming Georgia, SC, NC, and then curving in towards the Northeastern states. I really don't want this to be a Sandy repeat.

[xironman]

From radar it looks like it is heading ENE, maybe reach the east coast @ GA/SC border?

[Slughitter3]

Looks to be a pretty wild feeder/outter band training over the St. Pete/Tampa Bay area, some crazy lightning on the maps and the velocities are still a little up there, gusting to 30 about 20 minutes ago. With family in Pinellas county I'm wondering how much more rain the county can handle. Waiting for her to pay me a visit up here in Maryland.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[northjaxpro]

I had peak wind gust of 58 mph within the past hour. Currently picked up 2.inches of rain. Winds still around 30 mph sustained right now. Gusts are in the tropical storm gusts range into the low 40s range still at this hour.

As Hermine moves now northeast out of the region toward the.Carolinas, the tropical storm force winds will finally be leaving here as well with hee.later today.

Saw lots of flooding due due to storm surge in Cedar Key and wind damage.in the Flagler Beach area. The Tallahassee area has 90, 000 people without power and lots of trees down there.

Fortunately , my power is still on for the time being. But lots of tree damage reports across the region. Fortunately, no flooding rains due to Hermine moving at a good pace northeastward.

[SeGaBob]

Underperforming here. They claim it'll get worse but I don't see that yet. 2 inches so far

[terstorm1012]

I hope everyone's okay down there, this storm is worrying me. The latest NHC track basically shows Hermine ramming Georgia, SC, NC, and then curving in towards the Northeastern states. I really don't want this to be a Sandy repeat.

Not a negative tilt this time but one really strong Rex Block will keep this from moving back out to sea for some time. I think this will be much worse for the Jersey Shore than people might think. I'm glad the "Sandy" rule is in effect---whether Hermine gets all weird and hybrid or not, tropical watches and warnings will be issued. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/178/ (link to Rex Block definition)

[LarryWx]

To add to the ~1.5" here in SAV through 1:15 AM, I got another ~2.5" 1:15-7:40 AM (confirmed with two different measurements and not using the gauge that appears to be too high) making for a storm total so far of ~4" from around 9PM to 7:40 AM. The Jacksonville radar has this area near 2", which is obviously grossly underdone! CHS radar has even less! The rain is very spotty now. Getting strong gusty winds but only once in a while to this point. I suspect those will increase in frequency and strength over the next few hours as the center gets closer to here on its NEward journey expecting to pass a little to our west. I did hear a transformer blow sometime within the last hour or maybe a little longer.

[northjaxpro]

WJXT-TV 4 in Jacksonville just got a report just received into the NWS office of a wind gust to 69 mph at Cecil Commerce on the west end of Jacksonville as one of the last strong feederbands is moving through the area right now.