ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blazess556]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

[Aric Dunn]

dekle beach about to feel the worst yet and likely for the next hour.. the heavy convection on the southern eyewall should rotate right there.. too bad there is literally no reporting stations anywhere near by lol.

[Hammy]

100mph winds in the eastern eyewall...2-3 thousand feet above ground. Anyone have the ratio on that?

I think the reduction is such that an easy trick is that whatever the flight level kts are, the surface mph are if not slightly less--so this would be 80-85mph surface.

[Hurricane Andrew]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Yup...radarscope showing 110-115 miles per hours at 2.5k ft above ground. If that mixes down...

[lrak]

God Bless and good luck my Floridian friends.

[tolakram]

Hell of a spot to come ashore, right there in the bend.

[birddogsc]

Wonder how long before the water actually tops those railings on the Cedar Key cam.

It's not that far now at all.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020303
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 28 20160902
025330 2935N 08356W 8434 01405 //// +166 //// 201082 084 061 002 01
025400 2935N 08357W 8429 01408 //// +168 //// 201074 081 061 002 01
025430 2935N 08358W 8429 01401 //// +179 //// 201070 072 061 003 01
025500 2935N 08400W 8432 01395 //// +185 //// 202065 069 062 003 01
025530 2935N 08401W 8426 01396 //// +188 //// 202056 060 062 001 01
025600 2935N 08403W 8429 01387 9876 +192 +189 203056 057 059 002 00
025630 2936N 08405W 8427 01387 //// +186 //// 202054 056 056 001 01
025700 2936N 08406W 8432 01377 //// +193 //// 203048 051 046 003 01
025730 2936N 08408W 8430 01373 //// +193 //// 203045 047 042 002 01
025800 2937N 08410W 8430 01369 //// +191 //// 204038 044 028 001 01
025830 2937N 08412W 8429 01368 //// +192 //// 206028 035 020 002 01
025900 2937N 08413W 8429 01366 9847 +198 +187 210018 023 015 001 01
025930 2938N 08415W 8429 01372 9852 +197 +187 215010 014 007 003 01
030000 2939N 08417W 8433 01366 9853 +195 +190 243005 008 014 002 05
030030 2940N 08418W 8426 01373 9854 +196 +191 237004 004 014 003 01
030100 2940N 08420W 8432 01370 9855 +197 +186 327002 004 012 001 00
030130 2941N 08422W 8429 01372 9856 +200 +188 022005 007 014 001 03
030200 2941N 08423W 8430 01374 9858 +199 +191 001015 018 006 001 00
030230 2940N 08425W 8430 01380 9864 +194 +192 343023 026 013 002 01
030300 2940N 08427W 8430 01385 9871 +195 +188 347028 030 019 001 00
$$
;

Pressure holding steady around 984mb it appears.

[tropicwatch]

Jim Cantore's live shot all you hear is frogs lol. Seems really calm at Carrabelle, FL.

He won't be hearing frogs for long. He is probably in the eye right now. He will get his cam shot when the western wall comes through the area.

[CrazyC83]

90 kt at flight level translates to 72 kt at the surface. Given earlier SFMR data and radar estimates, I would think 70 or 75 kt will be the landfall intensity.

[BRweather]

025800 2937N 08410W 8430 01369 //// +191 //// 204038 044 028 001 01
025830 2937N 08412W 8429 01368 //// +192 //// 206028 035 020 002 01
025900 2937N 08413W 8429 01366 9847 +198 +187 210018 023 015 001 01
025930 2938N 08415W 8429 01372 9852 +197 +187 215010 014 007 003 01
030000 2939N 08417W 8433 01366 9853 +195 +190 243005 008 014 002 05
030030 2940N 08418W 8426 01373 9854 +196 +191 237004 004 014 003 01
030100 2940N 08420W 8432 01370 9855 +197 +186 327002 004 012 001 00
030130 2941N 08422W 8429 01372 9856 +200 +188 022005 007 014 001 03
030200 2941N 08423W 8430 01374 9858 +199 +191 001015 018 006 001 00
030230 2940N 08425W 8430 01380 9864 +194 +192 343023 026 013 002 01
030300 2940N 08427W 8430 01385 9871 +195 +188 347028 030 019 001 00

pressure holding steady

[northjaxpro]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Will we see a shot of seeing Cat 2.while coming ashore?

[Nate-Gillson]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Will we see a shot of Cat 2.while coming ashore?

Very doubtful it's a cat 2. More like a very strong cat 1.

[BRweather]

[birddogsc]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Will we see a shot of Cat 2.while coming ashore?

Seeing 100 knots on the Base Reflectivity (Level 1).

[CrazyC83]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Will we see a shot of Cat 2.while coming ashore?

Very doubtful it's a cat 2. More like a very strong cat 1.

To get a Cat 2 we would need 104 kt FL winds or 83 kt SFMR. Radar reflectivities at the current level would need to be near 105-110 kt at least as well with a 0.75 reduction over water.

[northjaxpro]

just saw 96 kts on GR level 3 in NE eyewall

Will we see a shot of Cat 2.while coming ashore?

Very doubtful it's a cat 2. More like a very strong cat 1.

It still seems like the eyewall is still tight as landfall is commencing. It is extremely close to being a Cat 2 I can assure of that.

[Hurricane Andrew]

So that post before about birds in the eye, was that serious?

[SunnyThoughts]

So that post before about birds in the eye, was that serious?

yes

[PTrackerLA]

Surge definitely the highest yet on the Cedar Key cam: http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html

Waves rolling right across the seawall and the camera keeps getting blasted. Great job with surge cam Mark!