ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

saved radar loop

Making another jog to the east at the end there.

[BRweather]

Next 6 hours for Perry will probably be the worse spot to be. Dekle Beach area

[caneman]

That band coming towards Tampa-Clearwater just keeps looking better and better. 'Bout to have some fun here soon...."fun"...

Duke energy has over 361 locations currently without power, so that next feeder band is just going to extend the wait time for repair a few more days. I am not going to bother setting up my generator tonight. Was kind of hoping the squall line would weaken before it set up along the coast. The power grid just can't handle extended periods of winds above 45 knots.

Where do you live Nimbus?

[BRweather]

I am not sure anyone will see sustained hurricane force winds.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020233
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 25 20160902
022330 2753N 08346W 8431 01556 0079 +170 +165 229050 052 032 001 01
022400 2753N 08344W 8429 01563 0081 +173 +172 224051 053 031 004 03
022430 2754N 08342W 8430 01564 0081 +178 +169 222050 053 042 001 03
022500 2756N 08342W 8425 01565 0077 +177 +164 220049 050 042 001 00
022530 2758N 08341W 8429 01561 0081 +170 +165 222051 053 041 002 00
022600 2759N 08341W 8425 01564 0080 +172 +164 225051 053 040 002 03
022630 2801N 08341W 8425 01560 0078 +171 +165 224050 051 035 002 00
022700 2803N 08341W 8433 01550 0074 +172 +167 222050 051 035 002 00
022730 2805N 08341W 8429 01554 0074 +168 +168 223051 052 035 002 01
022800 2807N 08341W 8430 01551 //// +167 //// 224052 052 034 002 01
022830 2809N 08341W 8424 01555 //// +169 //// 225053 053 035 002 01
022900 2811N 08341W 8429 01551 0069 +172 +167 225053 053 035 001 00
022930 2813N 08341W 8436 01540 0066 +173 +167 224053 054 034 001 01
023000 2815N 08341W 8422 01551 //// +168 //// 222055 055 033 003 01
023030 2817N 08341W 8433 01536 0064 +172 +171 221056 056 029 004 00
023100 2819N 08341W 8434 01535 0072 +168 +168 217056 057 028 006 00
023130 2821N 08341W 8417 01553 //// +165 //// 219054 056 032 004 01
023200 2823N 08341W 8429 01540 0061 +171 //// 223059 060 034 006 01
023230 2825N 08342W 8437 01525 0071 +175 +175 218052 059 029 011 03
023300 2827N 08342W 8411 01551 0065 +177 //// 220055 060 036 014 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

recon trying to make it to that very deep convection on the SE and east side. best chance to see if it strengthened.

[northjaxpro]

TWC really messed up big time with the placement of their resources.

Everyone is on the wrong side.

Ole Cantore should have gone to Cedar Key to be right near the biggest impact. I am surprised he is not there.
dekle beach is the place to be

Yeah .Alligator Point also would have been a prime spot to see the effects of the eye as well.

[Soonercane]

I am not sure anyone will see sustained hurricane force winds.

It's pretty rare to actually see sustained winds near the estimated strength of the system (which is over water) anywhere on land This is.due to both surface drag, and also insufficient weather station density to capture the peak winds. I think 65-70 mph measured sustained winds with gusts around 80 would be the max I would expect to see on land with an 80 mph storm

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020244
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 26 20160902
023330 2829N 08342W 8430 01534 0051 +175 +171 222058 059 028 004 01
023400 2831N 08342W 8431 01532 //// +171 //// 221057 058 030 001 01
023430 2833N 08342W 8425 01538 0050 +169 +165 218059 060 030 003 01
023500 2835N 08342W 8430 01531 0052 +168 +167 218059 060 030 001 01
023530 2837N 08342W 8430 01526 0051 +166 +163 219060 061 030 002 01
023600 2839N 08342W 8424 01534 0047 +169 +168 219060 060 032 003 01
023630 2841N 08342W 8431 01524 0045 +170 +166 219061 062 031 001 00
023700 2843N 08342W 8432 01520 0043 +169 +166 221063 065 033 002 00
023730 2845N 08342W 8431 01520 0042 +169 +166 223063 065 033 003 00
023800 2847N 08342W 8425 01524 0040 +166 +163 223065 066 035 002 00
023830 2849N 08342W 8434 01516 0040 +165 +163 221065 066 039 002 01
023900 2851N 08342W 8425 01519 0035 +165 +163 219067 068 039 002 00
023930 2853N 08342W 8430 01513 0030 +170 +157 220069 070 038 002 00
024000 2855N 08342W 8434 01506 0029 +170 +151 223071 072 038 003 00
024030 2857N 08342W 8423 01515 0024 +171 +148 223073 073 038 001 00
024100 2859N 08342W 8434 01500 0023 +169 +158 222074 075 041 003 00
024130 2901N 08342W 8426 01507 0023 +165 +162 218074 074 044 004 00
024200 2903N 08342W 8430 01498 0020 +164 +161 216073 074 044 005 01
024230 2905N 08343W 8431 01493 //// +162 //// 215072 074 044 002 01
024300 2907N 08343W 8425 01498 0013 +161 +161 214074 075 042 003 01
$$
;

[Nimbus]

That band coming towards Tampa-Clearwater just keeps looking better and better. 'Bout to have some fun here soon...."fun"...

Duke energy has over 361 locations currently without power, so that next feeder band is just going to extend the wait time for repair a few more days. I am not going to bother setting up my generator tonight. Was kind of hoping the squall line would weaken before it set up along the coast. The power grid just can't handle extended periods of winds above 45 knots.

Where do you live Nimbus?

Palm Harbor, inland

[SunnyThoughts]

Ole Cantore should have gone to Cedar Key to be right near the biggest impact. I am surprised he is not there.
dekle beach is the place to be

Yeah .Alligator Point also would have been a prime spot to see the effects of the eye as well.

TWC had a live cam at alligator point earlier...and it said Brett Adaire on the screen...I've been looking on the net but can't find his stream anywhere.

[chaser1]

Tight as the eye appears on satellite, it has not appeared to contract any further from the radar perspective. I'm guessing that might take place slightly as it comes ashore? I would think that the eastern eye wall might fill slightly as the right front quad begins to move ashore

[SunnyThoughts]

There are a couple of storm chasers over at severestudios.com with live feeds...but they aren't really showing much as of right now.

[BRweather]

I am not sure anyone will see sustained hurricane force winds.

It's pretty rare to actually see sustained winds near the estimated strength of the system (which is over water) anywhere on land This is.due to both surface drag, and also insufficient weather station density to capture the peak winds. I think 65-70 mph measured sustained winds with gusts around 80 would be the max I would expect to see on land with an 80 mph storm

Yes I agree.

I also said that because recon updates showing surface winds over water look as they have decreased some. Not seeing near the amount of 50 knot readings as before away from the center. We'll see what they find when they make this next pass

[MetroMike]

Duke energy has over 361 locations currently without power, so that next feeder band is just going to extend the wait time for repair a few more days. I am not going to bother setting up my generator tonight. Was kind of hoping the squall line would weaken before it set up along the coast. The power grid just can't handle extended periods of winds above 45 knots.

Where do you live Nimbus?

Palm Harbor, inland

If you read my previous post I stated there are over 17,000 customers without power in Pinellas County.

[birddogsc]

The water is really coming over the wall at Cedar Key.

[FLLurker32]

Is recon out and flying over this band in west central FL right now? I hear a plane and I'm fairly certain a commercial plane wouldn't be flying over this?

[BRweather]

I will not be surprised if they knock the intensity down back to 75 mph. Probably won't but I think they should

[tallywx]

I am not sure anyone will see sustained hurricane force winds.

It's pretty rare to actually see sustained winds near the estimated strength of the system (which is over water) anywhere on land This is.due to both surface drag, and also insufficient weather station density to capture the peak winds. I think 65-70 mph measured sustained winds with gusts around 80 would be the max I would expect to see on land with an 80 mph storm

Yes I agree.

I also said that because recon updates showing surface winds over water look as they have decreased some. Not seeing near the amount of 50 knot readings as before away from the center. We'll see what they find when they make this next pass

PWS at Bald Point (easternmost part of Alligator Point) gusted to 78 mph in the eyewall - https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =KFLALLIG2

[northjaxpro]

WJXT TV4 was forced to evacuate their crew which is in Taylor County. They had to go inland just a bit to Steinhatchee..Tornado warning there aa well. There are going to be several pop up tornadoes in these spiral bands as they rotate through.