ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#8681 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:29 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 020127
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 14 20160902
002330 2719N 08250W 8430 01460 9969 +175 +144 202054 054 027 001 00
002400 2718N 08249W 8426 01465 9970 +177 +140 202054 055 026 001 00
002430 2717N 08247W 8429 01574 0045 +178 +138 203054 055 026 002 00
002500 2716N 08246W 8433 01579 0104 +177 +136 203054 055 026 001 00
002530 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0104 +176 +143 203054 054 025 001 00
002600 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +146 203053 054 025 001 00
002630 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +146 203053 054 025 001 00
002700 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +146 203053 054 025 001 00
002730 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +146 203053 054 025 001 00
002800 2715N 08245W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +146 203053 054 025 001 00
002830 2720N 08247W 8432 01576 0104 +178 +126 200054 055 021 002 03
002900 2722N 08247W 8429 01578 0100 +178 +141 198055 055 /// /// 03
002930 2724N 08248W 8429 01573 0098 +177 +142 198055 055 /// /// 03
003000 2726N 08249W 8428 01572 0096 +178 +139 197056 057 /// /// 03
003030 2728N 08250W 8429 01571 0094 +179 +145 199058 059 /// /// 03
003100 2730N 08251W 8428 01571 0094 +178 +147 200059 059 /// /// 03
003130 2732N 08252W 8430 01569 0095 +175 +149 200060 060 /// /// 03
003200 2733N 08253W 8432 01569 0094 +175 +141 199060 060 /// /// 03
003230 2735N 08253W 8429 01570 0094 +175 +135 200060 060 /// /// 03
003300 2737N 08254W 8430 01568 0092 +175 +131 199061 062 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8682 Postby TPAcane » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:30 pm

Bay News 9 Mets just reported very strong winds just a couple hundred feet off the ground over Tampa Bay...up to 100mph reported...geez if this approaching band brings that down to the surface...ugh....
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8683 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:30 pm

chaser1 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Guidance supporting at least 8 feet of inundation at Cedar Key tonight.
 https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/771504102643818497




WOW?!! I've got the live cam going there and if thats right, than I'm gonna see a multiple foot rise occur right before my eyes over the next 5 hours... whew


Can you post the link to the live cam at Cedar Key...I lost it
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8684 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:nearly above the sea wall wont be anything holding it back soon. http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html


No there wont. By the way, how high is that tide cam anyway? It may go underwater now that i think of it
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8685 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:31 pm

Wow that band is looking mighty healthy - still inching closer to Tampa Bay Area - gonna be a close one!!!
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#8686 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:31 pm

005330 2853N 08330W 8433 01514 0033 +174 +157 204064 066 /// /// 03
005400 2855N 08331W 8428 01517 0032 +172 +161 202065 066 /// /// 03
005430 2857N 08332W 8427 01517 0030 +170 +161 201067 068 /// /// 03
005500 2859N 08333W 8433 01510 0030 +169 +160 201067 068 /// /// 03
005530 2901N 08334W 8425 01514 0027 +167 +157 198066 066 /// /// 03
005600 2903N 08335W 8433 01504 0025 +167 +163 193066 067 /// /// 05
005630 2905N 08336W 8432 01501 0024 +166 +160 193063 065 /// /// 03
005700 2907N 08337W 8429 01502 0019 +170 +158 194065 066 /// /// 03
005730 2908N 08337W 8429 01501 0018 +170 +157 192066 066 /// /// 03
005800 2910N 08338W 8428 01499 0015 +167 +158 190067 070 /// /// 03
005830 2912N 08339W 8432 01494 //// +162 //// 186061 065 /// /// 05
005900 2914N 08340W 8428 01495 //// +166 //// 186067 068 /// /// 05
005930 2916N 08341W 8434 01488 0010 +167 +162 185067 068 /// /// 05
010000 2918N 08342W 8430 01491 //// +162 //// 182070 072 /// /// 05
010030 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010100 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010130 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010200 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010230 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010300 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010330 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010400 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010430 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010500 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010530 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010600 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010630 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010700 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010730 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010800 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010830 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010900 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
010930 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011000 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011030 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011100 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011130 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011200 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011230 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011300 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011330 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011400 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011430 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011500 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011530 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011600 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182070 071 /// /// 05
011630 2920N 08343W 8421 01499 0008 +163 +159 182069 071 /// /// 05
011700 2940N 08420W 8431 01429 //// +175 //// 149048 070 /// /// 05
011730 2939N 08420W 8430 01427 9928 +179 +176 146045 048 /// /// 03
011800 2938N 08419W 8428 01431 9928 +179 +174 148046 047 /// /// 03
011830 2938N 08417W 8425 01434 9928 +180 +175 149049 051 /// /// 05
011900 2940N 08416W 8433 01428 9931 +183 +176 149054 057 /// /// 03
011930 2941N 08414W 8432 01439 //// +168 //// 145064 067 /// /// 05
012000 2942N 08413W 8432 01437 //// +162 //// 151067 068 /// /// 05
012030 2943N 08412W 8433 01447 //// +161 //// 152068 072 /// /// 05
012100 2945N 08412W 8426 01459 //// +155 //// 142065 067 /// /// 05
012130 2945N 08414W 8427 01454 //// +158 //// 143061 063 /// /// 05
012200 2944N 08416W 8425 01448 //// +165 //// 141061 064 042 003 01
012230 2943N 08417W 8429 01438 //// +173 //// 140060 066 048 003 01
012300 2942N 08418W 8425 01438 //// +174 //// 139051 056 048 002 01
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8687 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:recon showing its just paralleling the coast right now very slowly.


I think you are looking at AF307

I am watching mission 14 or AF304 data
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8688 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:31 pm

Cloud tops are warming on the IR satellite. Anyone think Hermine may have peaked?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8689 Postby TPAcane » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:32 pm

Worries now about this feeder band slowing down and causing massive training effects thru Pinellas/Pasco/Hernando ect...local METS talking about the set up now..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8690 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:33 pm

chris_fit wrote:Wow that band is looking mighty healthy - still inching closer to Tampa Bay Area - gonna be a close one!!!

Indeed a close one but it seems to be getting closer...and is not losing strength.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8691 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:33 pm

Happy Pelican wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:I really want to send a prayer out there for anybody who is being impacted by Hermine and I really hope everybody stays safe, I know we have tons of users in Florida, I feel bad watching this from the comforts of my house on Long Island :cry: (although Hermine may pay me a visit on Sunday :eek: )


I'm with you. Not many people here on the NJ barriers are taking this seriously meanwhile I'm in full on prep mode and trying not to let the Sandy flashbacks get the best of me.


glad you're prepping. don't like to hear no one else is---early guidance suggests in South Jersey the surge might rival what happened in January. stay safe! tell your neighbors!

https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/stat ... 3766819840
Last edited by terstorm1012 on Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8692 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:33 pm

BRweather wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:recon showing its just paralleling the coast right now very slowly.


I think you are looking at AF307

I am watching mission 14 or AF304 data


watching 304
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8693 Postby poof121 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:33 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:nearly above the sea wall wont be anything holding it back soon. http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html


No there wont. By the way, how high is that tide cam anyway? It may go underwater now that i think of it


Actual tide gauge levels...

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8727520
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8694 Postby JKingTampa » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:34 pm

TPAcane wrote:Worries now about this feeder band slowing down and causing massive training effects thru Pinellas/Pasco/Hernando ect...local METS talking about the set up now..


Winds already here coming probably to tropical storm force and absolutely zero rain.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8695 Postby JaxGator » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:35 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Cloud tops are warming on the IR satellite. Anyone think Hermine may have peaked?


Not that much as of yet on satellite.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8696 Postby jdjaguar » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:35 pm

Outer bands starting to brush jax
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8697 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:35 pm

013100 2922N 08433W 8429 01372 9853 +198 +194 359003 004 012 002 03
013130 2920N 08432W 8433 01366 9849 +204 +189 287006 007 011 002 00
013200 2918N 08432W 8425 01376 9849 +209 +181 276011 013 007 001 03
013230 2917N 08433W 8424 01378 9850 +208 +172 284016 018 012 001 03
013300 2916N 08434W 8432 01370 9851 +214 +158 288021 024 016 001 00

Hermine may have peaked
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8698 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:36 pm

1 1/2 hours and it moved very little to ene to ne just along the coast. .
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8699 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:37 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Cloud tops are warming on the IR satellite. Anyone think Hermine may have peaked?


Probably has peaked, though the eye has really contracted. I'm expecting some deeper convection to likely fire off close and north and east of center soon. 'Course, if that occurs then this will work itself around and probably impact right a eyewall landfall. Little nuances like this though are what might well carry some higher gusts right at that time, and impacting those unlucky ones right at that point of the eyewall crossing over them
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8700 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:37 pm

BRweather wrote:013100 2922N 08433W 8429 01372 9853 +198 +194 359003 004 012 002 03
013130 2920N 08432W 8433 01366 9849 +204 +189 287006 007 011 002 00
013200 2918N 08432W 8425 01376 9849 +209 +181 276011 013 007 001 03
013230 2917N 08433W 8424 01378 9850 +208 +172 284016 018 012 001 03
013300 2916N 08434W 8432 01370 9851 +214 +158 288021 024 016 001 00

Hermine may have peaked


24 kt winds... they missed the actual center . they had to turn south since the center was farther south then they thought.
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