ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

For crying outloud, great minds think alike.

[psyclone]

Could be doing an eye wall replacement cycle.

There's never been an eyewall to replace. that's for more stable majors

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[Zarniwoop]

That's gonna make landfall way before midnight.

Its really speeding up. Like like no later than 7pm unless it slows down.

I'm an idiot and not an expert, don't listen to me.

[SoupBone]

Cloud tops around the center warming rapidly, probably a good thing for the folks in Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Getting a lot of warming of the cloud tops from the sun right about now. Still watching to see if there is a big convective burst near the center soon.

It's getting beat up on the SW side as well. Dry air intrusion?

[ronjon]

Not much wind in hernando beach except in few squalls but tides running about 3 feet above normal - I had about a foot of seawater on my street at high tide around 3 pm. Has receded about 0.5 foot since then. Not looking forward to high tide at 2:30 am with SW winds from Hermine.

[BRweather]

Watch the northwest eyewall

[GCANE]

Much stronger cu nims firing on the NW and SE portion of the eyewall

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011945
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 40 20160901
193600 2832N 08511W 8424 01415 9894 +204 +177 130030 031 035 001 00
193630 2833N 08510W 8437 01403 9899 +201 +182 127032 032 037 001 00
193700 2834N 08508W 8428 01417 9903 +198 +179 132036 038 042 002 00
193730 2835N 08507W 8429 01419 9909 +192 +186 132037 038 045 003 00
193800 2836N 08506W 8428 01423 9915 +190 +189 132042 043 047 003 01
193830 2837N 08505W 8427 01428 9916 +191 +188 133043 045 048 003 01
193900 2838N 08503W 8440 01418 9921 +190 +190 137049 051 055 004 01
193930 2839N 08502W 8427 01434 9939 +184 //// 132057 060 053 002 05
194000 2840N 08501W 8423 01434 9939 +184 //// 139060 064 050 005 01
194030 2841N 08459W 8422 01445 9949 +185 //// 143063 065 050 007 01
194100 2842N 08458W 8429 01444 9957 +183 +183 137067 069 050 008 00
194130 2843N 08457W 8429 01447 9963 +181 +181 141069 070 050 008 03
194200 2845N 08456W 8441 01439 9973 +176 +176 135065 069 052 015 03
194230 2846N 08454W 8420 01464 9977 +176 +176 137058 063 049 014 00
194300 2847N 08453W 8438 01450 9981 +177 +177 137057 058 050 015 00
194330 2848N 08452W 8429 01463 9990 +169 +169 131058 060 047 014 00
194400 2849N 08451W 8431 01466 9991 +170 +170 132054 056 048 018 03
194430 2850N 08449W 8428 01475 9998 +166 +166 133054 056 048 020 03
194500 2851N 08448W 8426 01479 0005 +158 +158 132058 058 047 016 03
194530 2852N 08447W 8426 01482 0004 +161 +161 133058 058 045 011 00
$$
;

70 kt FL, 55 kt SFMR in NE quad (nearing land too).

[Nimbus]

Little to maybe 10mph wind right now in Pinellas. Did have some possible tropical storm force with that first band that came through. We shall see.

Snell isle Blvd may have flooded out at high tide, they lost power in that area of St Petersburg at 1:36 PM this afternoon. The rain brings the winds down so unless we get some more heavy squall lines we should consider ourselves lucky.

Hope recon finds that Hermine has stopped intensifying, if Tallahassee stays on the weak side of the storm it might just be a 3 day tree pruning exercise..

[RL3AO]

The earlier landfall is probably a good thing. Low tides around 8pm local tonight.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 011943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/19:30:10Z
B. 28 deg 17 min N
085 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1330 m
D. 54 kt
E. 218 deg 39 nm
F. 305 deg 61 kt
G. 219 deg 46 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1309A HERMINE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 77 KT 153 / 51 NM 18:23:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 040 / 5 KT
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 200 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[StormHunter72]

All the Weather is east

[BRweather]

982 mb sounds good for landfall.

[psyclone]

Not much wind in hernando beach except in few squalls but tides running about 3 feet above normal - I had about a foot of seawater on my street at high tide around 3 pm. Has receded about 0.5 foot since then. Not looking forward to high tide at 2:30 am with SW winds from Hermine.

no kidding that could be problematic. these large, loose circulations could really push the water. tonight's convective evolution should be interesting. as the storm reaches our longitude the large firehose east of the center should move ashore. Assuming it holds together that is the best chance of sustained TS conditions for the bay area and nature coast. It's not hard to envision long feeder bands extending into the NE gulf well after landfall as this thing sucks blood like a hungry mosquito. those can really unload torrential rain over localized areas. We've got a long way to go with this.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like another small cyclonic loops as its getting pulled around by the developing convection.

[BRweather]

Might not be the right time, but to all the people who constantly wrote off 99L,

this is what a sheered tropical wave can turn into. Never doubt the tropics...

[StormHunter72]

Might not be the right time, but to all the people who constantly wrote off 99L,

this is what a sheered tropical wave can turn into. Never doubt the tropics...

really we all know that

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 011955
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 41 20160901
194600 2853N 08446W 8430 01482 0002 +164 +164 134058 059 044 007 00
194630 2854N 08444W 8429 01486 0008 +164 //// 138059 060 045 006 01
194700 2855N 08443W 8429 01491 //// +162 //// 139057 059 045 003 01
194730 2856N 08442W 8433 01489 0009 +171 +170 140055 058 045 003 01
194800 2857N 08440W 8429 01496 0009 +176 +166 142052 054 044 003 00
194830 2858N 08439W 8432 01496 0009 +180 +162 142052 052 044 002 00
194900 2900N 08438W 8433 01498 0011 +182 +158 142051 052 040 002 00
194930 2901N 08436W 8426 01506 0011 +184 +155 143050 050 040 001 00
195000 2902N 08435W 8432 01503 0016 +180 +159 143052 053 039 001 00
195030 2903N 08434W 8430 01506 0018 +180 +159 145052 053 039 001 00
195100 2904N 08432W 8429 01510 0023 +176 +163 146055 056 040 002 00
195130 2905N 08431W 8432 01511 0025 +177 +163 151058 059 040 001 00
195200 2906N 08430W 8427 01517 0029 +173 +163 151056 058 040 001 00
195230 2907N 08428W 8435 01509 //// +170 //// 150054 056 041 002 01
195300 2909N 08427W 8427 01521 //// +170 //// 152053 055 042 001 01
195330 2910N 08425W 8433 01516 //// +172 //// 151054 055 040 001 01
195400 2911N 08424W 8429 01522 //// +171 //// 153056 057 041 001 01
195430 2912N 08423W 8428 01525 0036 +175 +172 155054 056 039 003 01
195500 2913N 08421W 8431 01524 0051 +171 //// 155053 056 041 002 01
195530 2914N 08420W 8430 01524 0051 +170 //// 153050 051 041 004 01
$$
;

TS force winds arriving on land now.

[FLLurker32]

Our news in central FL is filled with news of tornadoes already. That didn't take long.