Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[chaser1]

Instability still rising.

One would think that the instability would be going in the other direction based on the MJO, or is there little correlation given that the instability graph shown is for a much smaller and specific region of the Atlantic basin??

[tolakram]

As some of us wondered, all this talk about indicators that seem to provide good excuses in slow seasons but don't work so well in others.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768459541910618113

[HurricaneRyan]

Well I'm hoping September brings more interesting storms.

[MGC]

Looks like a large area of SAL is headed for the MDR. Might be quite down there for a week or so....MGC

[tolakram]

Instability actually hit normal for a few minutes.

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/769336251295997952

[Kingarabian]

This picture pretty much sums it all. 3 disturbances and one storm - all struggling. If you showed me this NHC graphic at the beginning of the season along with the La-Nina expectations, I would've been really worried.

[WeatherEmperor]

This picture pretty much sums it all. 3 disturbances and one storm - all struggling. If you showed me this NHC graphic at the beginning of the season along with the La-Nina expectations, I would've been really worried.

2 of those disturbances are in areas many pro mets said would be the hot spots for development this year (gulf and near east coast). Shear, shear and more shear. Just business as usual in the ATL the last few years.....


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[Alyono]

and the idea that Hawaii would be the part of the USA at greatest risk seems to be playing out as expected

[tolakram]

Not really an indicator but perhaps tracking the progress.

Big picture overview this morning. Models showing another long tracking CV system possibly making it all the way to the US due to a very strong ridge.

Lower left to right is 99L, 91L (TD EIGHT), Gaston

[NDG]

With Gaston now a Cat 2 and remain at least a Cat 1 Hurricane through the 31st, Dr Phil's 2 week forecast will officially be a big bust. They had forecasted 13 Ace units for the last 2 weeks of August, as of early today Ace since August 18th stands around 11, by the 31st it should be close to 20.
Sometimes Analogs don't go your way he ,was counting a lot on the MJO being on Phase 6 on his forecast.

[weatherwindow]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/769336251295997952

Good morning all... it appears we're beginning to see some evidence of persistence in the ridging over the southeast and Western Atlantic. If the longer-range solutions suggested by the 00Z Euro and GFS verify, this ridging may persist into the first week of September. Those Solutions also suggest that bridging occurs between high pressure in the southeast and large-scale ridging in the mid and Eastern Atlantic. I am certainly not suggesting ridging on the scale of 04 or 05, however, assuming long-range models verify, soon-to-be invest 92 and future CV systems may pose problems for the islands and points West.
Greetings from Cayo Hueso, Rich

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/770622065716125696

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/771358933474799616

[Ntxw]

Atlantic ACE is running a little above normal for this time of year. Have not been able to say that with confidence during ASO in some time. Numbers and ACE are all running pretty healthy.

[LarryWx]

The MJO has moved into the circle, which has actually been more favorable than average since 1995 for tropical genesis in Sept. The following storms that were born in Sep. 1995-2012 while the MJO was within the circle later hit the CONUS as a hurricane:

Rita of 2005
Isabel of 2003
Lili of 2002
Floyd of 1999
Georges of 1998
Opal of 1995.

During Sep., just over 21% of the days while within the circle had a genesis during 1995-2012. That was exceeded only by phase 1's 24%. Phase 2 was at 17%. All phases combined were at 16%. So, the 21% of within the circle is quite high.

All but one of the CONUS H hits and ALL of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses 1995-2012 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2, or within the circle.

(Katrina was born in August while the MJO was within the circle fwiw.)

[centuryv58]

The MJO has moved into the circle of death, which has actually been more favorable than average since 1995 for tropical genesis in Sept. The following storms that were born in Sep. 1995-2012 while the MJO was within the circle later hit the CONUS as a hurricane:

Rita of 2005
Isabel of 2003
Lili of 2002
Floyd of 1999
Georges of 1998
Opal of 1995.

During Sep., just over 21% of the days while within the circle had a genesis during 1995-2012. That was exceeded only by phase 1's 24%. Phase 2 was at 17%. All phases combined were at 16%. So, the 21% of within the circle is quite high.

All but one of the CONUS H hits and ALL of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses 1995-2012 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2, or within the circle.

(Katrina was born in August while the MJO was within the circle fwiw.)

I guess you mean death for others and not the MJO?

[LarryWx]

The MJO has moved into the circle of death, which has actually been more favorable than average since 1995 for tropical genesis in Sept. The following storms that were born in Sep. 1995-2012 while the MJO was within the circle later hit the CONUS as a hurricane:

Rita of 2005
Isabel of 2003
Lili of 2002
Floyd of 1999
Georges of 1998
Opal of 1995.

During Sep., just over 21% of the days while within the circle had a genesis during 1995-2012. That was exceeded only by phase 1's 24%. Phase 2 was at 17%. All phases combined were at 16%. So, the 21% of within the circle is quite high.

All but one of the CONUS H hits and ALL of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses 1995-2012 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2, or within the circle.

(Katrina was born in August while the MJO was within the circle fwiw.)

I guess you mean death for others and not the MJO?

I've heard it referred to as the circle of death. They mean death of MJO though technically it is of low amplitude rather than actually a dead MJO. I just decided to take out "of death" in my original post so it doesn't cause confusion.

[centuryv58]

The MJO has moved into the circle of death, which has actually been more favorable than average since 1995 for tropical genesis in Sept. The following storms that were born in Sep. 1995-2012 while the MJO was within the circle later hit the CONUS as a hurricane:

Rita of 2005
Isabel of 2003
Lili of 2002
Floyd of 1999
Georges of 1998
Opal of 1995.

During Sep., just over 21% of the days while within the circle had a genesis during 1995-2012. That was exceeded only by phase 1's 24%. Phase 2 was at 17%. All phases combined were at 16%. So, the 21% of within the circle is quite high.

All but one of the CONUS H hits and ALL of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses 1995-2012 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2, or within the circle.

(Katrina was born in August while the MJO was within the circle fwiw.)

I guess you mean death for others and not the MJO?

I've heard it referred to as the circle of death. They mean death of MJO though technically it is of low amplitude rather than actually a dead MJO. I just decided to take out "of death" in my original post so it doesn't cause confusion.

Thanks. I see what you mean.

[Andrew92]

Anyone with good knowledge is welcome to answer, but this is geared a bit more towards Larry. As many may know, I picked 1959, 1985, and 1992 as the best analogs coming into this year. However, 1998 has been mentioned as a possible analog too, and I can kind of agree that there are some similarities with that year too.

My question is, Larry or anyone, is there information on if the MJO was in the "circle of death" in any of the years before 1995 for the latter half of September? I see Georges fits the mold for 1998, but I wonder about Gloria and Gracie (not that hopes are high on the latter, it was 1959 after all!) I would also be curious if we were not in that circle in late September 1992, given the lack of major threats to land that we saw in the other three years in that period, even though Danielle still reached the East Coast as a decent tropical storm that year.

I just worry a little looking at all the similarities with this year and those four years to date that we may not have seen the biggest storm to come. I hope I am wrong when I say that.

-Andrew92