ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Dry air and dust continuing to diminish convection activity with this twave. Whereas, looking at the loop, further east and given my untrained eyes... a vigorous squall line should exiting off shore during the next 24 h-48h. I don't know what the models will do with but it has a decent appareance. Wait and see.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

According to the above post's satellite link, it looks like whatever vorticity exists is perhaps centered just SW of the CV Islands moving WSW and not yet moving fast. However, models have this speeding up by tomorrow to something close to 25 mph as it moves westward.

[cycloneye]

The memes are out there.

 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/770986782758404097

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF has a tropical storm hitting South Florida / Keys on day 10 from this.

[Kazmit]

Why is it now Cabo Verde islands, instead of Cape Verde islands? I guess more political correctness?

Not political correctness. They just asked that the islands be called what the people who live there call them. Apparently, the name was getting translated, and had many different translations of it depending on where you were. I don't think it was an inappropriate or overly politically correct request.

So... would they be called Cabo Verde hurricanes?

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS continues to be uninterested in Ex 92L

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 0%/30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This wave is expected to be in an environment of very dry
air for the next few days, which should prevent significant
development during that time. Environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for slow development on Sunday or
Monday when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This wave is expected to be in an environment of very dry
air for the next few days, which should prevent significant
development during that time. Environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for slow development on Sunday or
Monday when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion...AMENDED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1012 mb low
pressure center is along the wave near 16N. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 13N to 14N
between 29W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
03N to 10N between 20W and 40W, probably related more to the
monsoon trough. -

[Gustywind]

Dry air and dust continuing to diminish convection activity with this twave. Whereas, looking at the loop, further east and given my untrained eyes... a vigorous squall line should exiting off shore during the next 24 h-48h. I don't know what the models will do with but it has a decent appareance. Wait and see.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

According to the above post's satellite link, it looks like whatever vorticity exists is perhaps centered just SW of the CV Islands moving WSW and not yet moving fast. However, models have this speeding up by tomorrow to something close to 25 mph as it moves westward.

Ok thanks . It continues to show an very impressive appareance as a strong squall line. I Wonder if ex 92L isnot making a sacrifice for this one bringinng a more moist environnement ahead. We will see as we're in the peak of the season, each twaves could be suspicious so keep an eye on them.

[galaxy401]

What a change of ways. Before it emerged off Africa, the NHC and a lot of us thought it had favorable conditions to strengthen quickly. That surely changed the last several days.

[gatorcane]

looks pretty bad now but we can't ignore it especially once it gets to the area the NHC has shaded yellow, we are nearing the climatological peak afterall.

[gatorcane]

wow looks pathetic, a far cry from what models showed this past weekend.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave is expected to be in an
environment of very dry air for the next few days, which should
prevent significant development during that time. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for slow development
on Sunday or Monday when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

At least there is something .

[EDR1222]

Sure seems like we have been hearing about dry air quite a bit over the past few years.....more often than I can ever remember prior to that.

[LarryWx]

The latest GEFS (18Z) once again has a good number of members form a sfc low near the Bahamas that later hits the CONUS. Just something to keep in mind.

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly like Hermine and Earl this is going to have scattered minimal convection until 50W but after that is where I believe this starts to develop into something and since its September this can't be disregarded because these can sneak up on you

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

The latest GEFS (18Z) once again has a good number of members form a sfc low near the Bahamas that later hits the CONUS. Just something to keep in mind.

I only see 2 ensembles members on the 18Z GFS. Are you sure you were not looking at the 12Z GEFS?

[chaser1]

Aside from the fact that the EURO once modeled this wave as a potential Cat. 8 (lol) and at times threatening nearly everyone outside of Maine and Alaska, it has a well definitely envelope and is popping some convection close to center. I'd expect it to take advantage of the warmer SST's as it approaches 55W or so. I don't believe this wave will simply fade away. But will it turn out to be Hermine's ugly brother?

[abajan]