ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3701 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:22 am

Alyono wrote:why do I get the feeling that the 4km NAM uses paramaterized convetion...

If it does, the model should have its computer code erased as it is beyond non physical

Erm...what does that mean?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3702 Postby Recurve » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:36 am

drewschmaltz wrote:
Recurve wrote:If I'm getting it right, HWRF is still kind of blowing this up, but on the NHC track


No, the 06z HWRF just brought it in on the forecast track at 990mb. Shows little to no development for the next 24 hours and barely gets anything going. Pretty realistic solution compared to what we've seen the past 48 hours frm the HWRF.


Thanks for that correction! I watched too many runs of frightening intensity and obviously missed the latest.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3703 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:42 am

Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3704 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:56 am

GlennOBX wrote:Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?


Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Just scroll down to Tropical Depression 9.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3705 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:20 am

6Z HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3706 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:36 am

GlennOBX wrote:Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?

Another good one: http://spaghettimodels.com
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3707 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:43 am

I think this is the Euro Ensemble "mean". If it is, it shows a VERY gentle curve, instead of a sharp curve. Since this is the "mean" of a bunch of ensembles, it means that many Euro ensemble members are west of this track.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3708 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:40 am

12Z GFS coming in

36 hours

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3709 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:46 am

GFS is trending a little stronger, a little slower and a little farther west through 54 hours.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3710 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:50 am

GFS @ 66 hours

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3711 Postby drewschmaltz » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:54 am

Looks like the GFS keeps the energy split from now until landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3712 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:05 am

So, if I'm reading the latest scenario. Instead of the sharp curve out to sea, it's now back to hugging the coasts. Not to worry though, it will change a dozen or so times within 24 hrs.
Windshield wipers have been on high since page 1. :D
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3713 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:08 am

It's probably way off and can be thrown out but FWIW the 4km NAM has a 923mb hurricane heading for the big bend region of Florida.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3714 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:14 am

The Nam is right up there with Star Trek and Star Wars.
The latter being more realistic.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3715 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:16 am

txwatcher91 wrote:It's probably way off and can be thrown out but FWIW the 4km NAM has a 923mb hurricane heading for the big bend region of Florida.

Image


LOL OMG
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3716 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:18 am

CMC and the JMA is interesting also
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3717 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:18 am

12Z GFS

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3718 Postby hohnywx » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:30 am

stormlover2013 wrote:CMC and the JMA is interesting also


Can you elaborate?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3719 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:35 am

hohnywx wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:CMC and the JMA is interesting also


Can you elaborate?


CMC is further west and a bit stronger, I'm not sure about the JMA but would assume it's stronger as well.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3720 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:40 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:CMC and the JMA is interesting also


Can you elaborate?


CMC is further west and a bit stronger, I'm not sure about the JMA but would assume it's stronger as well.


Are we talking about the "before Florida" part being further west, or the after part?
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