ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

why do I get the feeling that the 4km NAM uses paramaterized convetion...

If it does, the model should have its computer code erased as it is beyond non physical

Erm...what does that mean?

[Recurve]

If I'm getting it right, HWRF is still kind of blowing this up, but on the NHC track

No, the 06z HWRF just brought it in on the forecast track at 990mb. Shows little to no development for the next 24 hours and barely gets anything going. Pretty realistic solution compared to what we've seen the past 48 hours frm the HWRF.

Thanks for that correction! I watched too many runs of frightening intensity and obviously missed the latest.

[GlennOBX]

Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?

[South Texas Storms]

Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?

Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Just scroll down to Tropical Depression 9.

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[N2FSU]

Is there a website where we can see the latest "spaghetti chart" of the model runs? The one I used to go to for that doesn't show them anymore. Also, a previous poster said the models were trending west now. How far west are they trending?

Another good one: http://spaghettimodels.com

[rockyman]

I think this is the Euro Ensemble "mean". If it is, it shows a VERY gentle curve, instead of a sharp curve. Since this is the "mean" of a bunch of ensembles, it means that many Euro ensemble members are west of this track.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS coming in

36 hours

[rockyman]

GFS is trending a little stronger, a little slower and a little farther west through 54 hours.

[chris_fit]

GFS @ 66 hours

[drewschmaltz]

Looks like the GFS keeps the energy split from now until landfall.

[OuterBanker]

So, if I'm reading the latest scenario. Instead of the sharp curve out to sea, it's now back to hugging the coasts. Not to worry though, it will change a dozen or so times within 24 hrs.
Windshield wipers have been on high since page 1.

[txwatcher91]

It's probably way off and can be thrown out but FWIW the 4km NAM has a 923mb hurricane heading for the big bend region of Florida.

[OuterBanker]

The Nam is right up there with Star Trek and Star Wars.
The latter being more realistic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It's probably way off and can be thrown out but FWIW the 4km NAM has a 923mb hurricane heading for the big bend region of Florida.

LOL OMG

[stormlover2013]

CMC and the JMA is interesting also

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[hohnywx]

CMC and the JMA is interesting also

Can you elaborate?

[txwatcher91]

CMC and the JMA is interesting also

Can you elaborate?

CMC is further west and a bit stronger, I'm not sure about the JMA but would assume it's stronger as well.

[GlennOBX]

CMC and the JMA is interesting also

Can you elaborate?

CMC is further west and a bit stronger, I'm not sure about the JMA but would assume it's stronger as well.

Are we talking about the "before Florida" part being further west, or the after part?