2016 ACE: ATL - 134.7 - EPAC - 191.9 - WPAC - 258.2125

[Alyono]

15z update is up. Gaston getting good ACE units as is a cat 2 and so far has gotten 9.28 ACE units.North Atlantic may get a great uptick from African Wave but some more from Hermine (Western Atlantic) 99L maybe? Lester and Madeline are getting good units and Lionrock continues strong racking up the WPAC numbers.(It has gotten so far 31.4975)

or if the 12Z runs verify, Gaston is the only game in town

[Steve]

15z update is up. Gaston getting good ACE units as is a cat 2 and so far has gotten 9.28 ACE units.North Atlantic may get a great uptick from African Wave but some more from Hermine (Western Atlantic) 99L maybe? Lester and Madeline are getting good units and Lionrock continues strong racking up the WPAC numbers.(It has gotten so far 31.4975)

Pretty cool we jacked up Atlantic ACE in no time. Looks like the I or super outside chance of J storm by the end of the month. We could be at 45-50 in a blink if Gaston keeps spinning around and like you said if maybe 99 hits the SW Atlantic. Interesting that many people have speculated an active September/October season. I don't know how much heat will be available in the tropical or subtropical Atlantic, but if we get some favorable pulses and the wave train keeps rolling for a couple more weeks, we could get farther in the alphabet and higher than ACE than I would have guessed.

[1900hurricane]

Does Maue count subtropical systems towards his ACE totals? My Lionrock numbers are running considerably below his, and I'm wondering if this is a reason since JTWC originally stated Lionrock was subtropical when it was first emerging from the Monsoon Gyre a couple of days before they started issuing advisories.

[cycloneye]

03z update is up. Gaston (12.255) getting a lot ACE units as it continues as a major cane while Lester and Madeline are getting more units to boost even more the EastCentral Pacific basins.And in the WPAC Lionrock (33.61) continues to get more ACE as it weakens.

[euro6208]

Impressive Lionrock...racking up 29.1075, beating Nepartak for Northern Hemisphere's most ACE storm.

[Ntxw]

EPAC will likely achieve it's annual average ACE with Madeline and Lester if not more. There are more modeled activity and at the very least that basin will have an above average year at the minimum. Atlantic is holding on it's own which is about average for this time of year. WPAC remains below normal but that can change in a hurry as two long tracking typhoons could bring it to average.

[euro6208]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know if there has ever been a year when the EPac has ended up as the ACE champion at the end of the year. I know the Atlantic has done it at least three times (1998, 1999, 2010), but many of the years the EPac is active, the WPac is too.

I don't ever remember a year the EPAC took the crown...Maybe 2016 is there year?

[cycloneye]

03Z update is up.EPAC way ahead of WPAC but will it stay as #1 in ACE all the way to the end?

[1900hurricane]

I don't think the WPac will hit its stride until October, but with how hot the EPac is right now, it may be in a pretty big hole. In the meantime, I think Lester is poised to take the individual NHem storm ACE crown from Lionrock, who only just took it from Nepartak.

[cycloneye]

09z update is up.

[cycloneye]

21z update is up.EPAC has really gone away from WPAC now.

[hurricanes1234]

Personally I'm thinking after Lester and Madeline are done, we could be seeing at least 150 units.

By the way, what's the seasonal average for ACE in the EPAC?

[Extratropical94]

Personally I'm thinking after Lester and Madeline are done, we could be seeing at least 150 units.

By the way, what's the seasonal average for ACE in the EPAC?

According to Wikipedia:

"The 35 year median 1971–2005 is 115 (100 in the EPAC zone east of 140°W, 13 in the CPAC zone); the mean is 130 (112 + 18)."

[1900hurricane]

Personally I'm thinking after Lester and Madeline are done, we could be seeing at least 150 units.

By the way, what's the seasonal average for ACE in the EPAC?

According to Wikipedia:

"The 35 year median 1971–2005 is 115 (100 in the EPAC zone east of 140°W, 13 in the CPAC zone); the mean is 130 (112 + 18)."

That's in good agreement with the 1981-2010 mean of 131.8*10^4 kt^2 of ACE provided by the CSU EPac ACE page.

[hurricanes1234]

Any update on EPAC ACE? I'm guessing it must be between 145 and 150 now with Long-Lived Lester still a Category 2.

[cycloneye]

21z Update is up.

[Ntxw]

From Weatherbell's statistics, Global ACE is running close to normal. WPAC remains well below normal, EPAC well above normal and is actually on pace for a hyperactive year. 2016 there is now clustered with several prominent El NIno and +PDO seasons. 2006, 1982, and 1997 will probably be beaten this year there. Atlantic recently was near normal now falling slightly below (average is rising quickly due to peak) but it's still within range of normal a storm or two would keep pace.

N. Hemisphere: 286.0270 [Normal: 288]

Western Pacific: 87.105 [Normal: 147]

North Atlantic: 42.0075 [Normal: 46]

Eastern Pacific: 152.9645 [Normal:87]

North Indian: 3.95 [Normal: 7]



http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[Ntxw]

Both Orlene in the EPAC and Meranti in the WPAC will add a lot of ACE to their basins. At this point the EPAC is padding ACE for what will be a third consecutive hyperactive season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/775328771603783680

[euro6208]

I'd imagine the WPAC adding alot of ACE with a 155 knot monster, followed by another Major typhoon and a couple more storms...