Surface Trough and ULL north of NE Caribbean Islands

[northjaxpro]

I am currently not in access to my normal computer applications as I am not able to post the graphics at this time. I know most on the forums are focused on the developments of 99L, and what is going on with what looks like soon to be major Hurricane Gaston.

But I have been monitoring the surface trough down near the Virgin Islands near 24 N and.62 W. The trough axis lies just to the southeast of that large cut-off Upper Low centered near 21N. 61.W.

Convection has built up gradually along that surface trough axis over the past 24 hours. I am only mentioning this as an area of interest. Now, to strongly emphasize I am not anticipating development at this time. Plus the surface trough is also interacting with the large ULL just to its northwest this morning. These type of interactions take time to develop. But, it is something to watch out there nonetheless. Remember, Joaquin formed from a similar ULL and surface trough interaction last October.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[floridasun78]

this look better and 99l tell you ture

[northjaxpro]

This area of interest is looking more intriguing I agree with you floridasun. I have been observing this area and I always find these surface trough/upper level low interactions to be interesting. There is quite of bit of convection with area and I feel that if the convection continues or sustains itself, these type of interaction needs to be watched. Now, although they don't occur often to bring ULL features to the surface, we all know what happened to spawn Joaquin.

[gatorcane]

Looking pretty good, I will admit. Models are notorious for missing ULL to genesis transitions. Saved loop showing the system a little north of the Lesser Antilles.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, convection is increasing pretty quickly. I wonder if it will be an invest.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, convection is increasing pretty quickly. I wonder if it will be an invest.

Well, if the trend with the convection continues and we start seeing pressure falls down into the region of the extreme NE Caribbean Islands along that trough axis, I say there possibly could be a possible invest in the next day or so down in the area. The ULL interacting with the trough itself is just north/northwest of that.

[tolakram]

Sure looks like convection firing more towards the center.

loop, moved a bit

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=21&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[northjaxpro]

Sure looks like convection firing more towards the center.

loop, moved a bit

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=21&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

Tolakram, convection is beginning to occur around the ULL center. Lots going on with the interaction of the ULL and surface trough down here. Very interesting down there this afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

I know everyone is riveted to 99L, soon to be upgraded finally to TD9. But, this area maybe soon our next invest area. Convection is continuing to increase and I have to think if the trends continue, NHC may have to start mentioning this feature much more as time progresses. Tropics are really popping right now!!

[floridasun78]

i think nhc may wait longer call it invest because it ull

[AutoPenalti]

Weird, no models detect it. What's the steering pattern like for this trough?

[floridasun78]

Weird, no models detect it. What's the steering pattern like for this trough?

look moving due west

[Kazmit]

Wow, the Atlantic is exploding with activity. We have TD 8, TD 9, Gaston, 91L, the African AOI, and now this. I think it could be tagged as an invest in the coming days, and it is something to keep an eye on, because powerful storms can form from these troughs, providing the conditions are right, as we've seen with Joaquin.

[floridasun78]

ull weaking