ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SeGaBob]

Looks a tad stronger through 30 hours

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS at hour 60 finally making a northward turn Not very strong http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

[gatorcane]

Down to 1006mb and turning NE at 78 hours

[gatorcane]

1004mb and heading NE at 90 hours. GFS is stronger this run.

[OntarioEggplant]

We probably won't see any improvement in the models until this recon data can be input for the 00Z runs

[gatorcane]

GFS with landfall around Cedar Key at 102 hours as an intensifying cyclone

[gatorcane]

Loop of 18Z GFS:

[xcool22]

Loop of 18Z GFS:

I think go be more west

[SunnyThoughts]

18z HWRF out to hour 12 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[chris_fit]

HWRF @ 63 hours

[gatorcane]

It's heading NE too at 63 hours.

[chris_fit]

Check out the new HWRF that is coming is rather ominous for Tampa - I pray it does not verify. So far heading straight towards Tampa.

[drewschmaltz]

HWRF = parental discretion advised.

[chris_fit]

[GeneratorPower]

Direct hit. Homosassa Springs, Crystal River.

[HurricaneBelle]

Cat 3 Landfall Citrus/Hernando counties.

[floridasun78]

that was showing south fl look what happen let wait show by wed i hope Tampa people NOT going cazy to store getting hurr supply or media putting hurr flag on their cast

[rockyman]

18z GFDL:

Starts out by diving the system well southwest:



Then it crosses 88W (almost to 89W), then hooks NE

[ronjon]

Yikes!!! HWRF brings a CAT 3 to my front door.

[RL3AO]

Tallahassee NWS model discussion

At first, it seemed like today's 12z guidance was coming into
pretty good agreement with the area of disturbed weather in the
southeast Gulf. Tracks on the 12z GFS, Canadian, and UKMET were
somewhere in between Destin and Cedar Key. Intensities still
varied quite a bit, but each of those three models showed a well
defined system. Then the 12z ECMWF came in and flipped-flopped
tremendously again, now barely showing any system at all. The
ECMWF's performance with this system has been very inconsistent,
which is atypical of this model. Its performance was also poor for
the last heavy rainfall event locally. Perhaps its upgrade to 9
km resolution is causing problems with the convective
parameterization in the model, although that's just a speculation.
At any rate, the official forecast trended towards a wetter
scenario with the potential for the area of disturbed weather to
affect our forecast area by the middle to end of the week,
particularly across the southeast big bend. We continue to want
people to follow this system closely this week as the forecast
continues to be refined.

Interesting to see that in an afd. 9km is a really strange resolution to parameterize convection.