ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

[windnrain]

Strengthening at 126 into Talahassee area.

[stormlover2013]

This is going to be about timing with the ridge in Texas is that builds in or if it doesn't lol should be a fun ride to watch

[tolakram]

Animation of the run so far.

[bella_may]

Seems the last few models have trended west a little bit. Or am I wrong?

[stormwise]

[tolakram]

So the 18Z is a little stronger and has a path more like the 12Z Euro. Huge change from the last run and no consistency again.

[tolakram]

GFS 120h last 6 runs.



GFS 48h last 6 runs

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Can't help but feel threatened...I live in Tampa. Something in my gut says They will shift back to us. Awaiting next run...but we are running out of time models won't shift much more they are getting accurate...I expect classification

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, the Hwrf is running...lets see which ( if any) location it wants to wipe off the map this time. (Please notice the sarcasm) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[USTropics]

The 18z GFS keeps 99L around for the next 12 days. After moving towards the CGOM, it heads northeast and makes first landfall along the panhandle of FL, moves offshore near NE FL, does a cyclonic loop and moves back ashore, then heads down the GOM coastline. Entire loop in 24 hour increments below:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Well, the Hwrf is running...lets see which ( if any) location it wants to wipe off the map this time. (Please notice the sarcasm) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

A tad west..None of these models form anything in the next 24 hours

[Steve]

LOL at the GFS. That's crazy.

At 72 hours, HWRF is slightly north and slightly west of the last run. 26.1/84.2 vs. 25.5/83.6 and it's only down to 979 from 960.

[ronjon]

Yeah but HWRF strengthening at 72 hrs and looks like landfall big bend/cedar key this run.

[ronjon]

Nope was wrong...making a beeline for Clearwater at 943 mb in 96 hrs.

[Steve]

It's hooking back toward Pinellas County at 943mb at 96 hours (4 days from 2:00pm EDT today). I don't buy it, but that's a beast. Obviously a ton of low lying flooding and inundation in Sarasota/Manatee/Hillsborough Counties at that point...

[tolakram]

HWRF is such a troll.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF is such a troll.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/wIKEgwo.png[img]

It is. But also points how scary it would be if the environment was conducive.

[Frank P]

HWRF thru 96 hours is wiping out Tampa Bay with a 943mb hurricane....

[hohnywx]

We know that the model is not reliable for storms that have not undergone genesis yet, but it is remarkable that it has its eyes set on the Tampa Bay region for the past three runs.