ATL: HERMINE - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3381 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:56 pm

12Z Euro did not ramp this up until after 96 hours. Right now both runs are still very similar.
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La Breeze
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3382 Postby La Breeze » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:56 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:So far it's in very good agreement with the Euro at 48 hrs.

PTrackerLA, do you think we're in for this system here in our area, and if so, when in your opinion? I'm in Vermilion Parish - still trying to dry out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3383 Postby windnrain » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:56 pm

(Edit: sorry for some reason it loses it at 78 at wxbell on mslp)
Last edited by windnrain on Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3384 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm

Look how impressive 500mb vorticity is at 84hrs compared to last several runs. This is much more organized probably close to TS status here.

Image
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3385 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3386 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:58 pm

Look at that nice upper setup

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3387 Postby xcool22 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:58 pm

gfs just like Euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3388 Postby La Breeze » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:58 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Look how impressive 500mb vorticity is at 84hrs compared to last several runs. This is much more organized probably close to TS status here.

Image

Heading...?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3389 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:01 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro did not ramp this up until after 96 hours. Right now both runs are still very similar.


Euro had a TS @ 96hr compared to a depression for the GFS. But at least there's some consensus.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3390 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3391 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:02 pm

Heading north, still not deepening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3392 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:02 pm

Looks like it's beginning to ramp up @ hour 102:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3393 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3394 Postby windnrain » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:05 pm

Spinning in the NE GOM barely moving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3395 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:06 pm

windnrain wrote:Spinning in the NE GOM barely moving.


Yet not deepening. If conditions could become favorable, this could become a serious problem since it's moving so slow (allowing the system more time to develop).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3396 Postby bella_may » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:06 pm

windnrain wrote:Spinning in the NE GOM barely moving.


Trapped between the high and the ridge?? :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3397 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:10 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3398 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:10 pm

Looks more like a TC on the 18Z GFS looking at simulate IR, though still on the weak side.

Sharp turn east at 120 hours
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3399 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:12 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3400 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:12 pm

Very weak through hour 120. Despite keeping it weak, this GFS run is very telling that 99l must be monitored despite its struggles.
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